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I don't think OpenAI or Anthropic are predicting that the AI market is going to collapse. In fact, I think both are bullish that the public still isn't pricing
by aurareturn 5mo ago
I don't think OpenAI or Anthropic are predicting that the AI market is going to collapse. In fact, I think both are bullish that the public still isn't pricing in exponential growth.
I think what is happening is that OpenAI is racing to IPO before Anthropic because their growth isn't as impressive. If you are the weaker company, you should IPO first to lock up the cash.
- Avicebron 5mo agoWhat are they offering the public (not me and you writing code in our free time)?
- aurareturn 5mo agoThey are offering the public an opportunity to become shareholders and they are giving their investors and employees liquidity.
- Avicebron 5mo agoI mean as a long-term product, not as a offer to join a hype cycle.
- aurareturn 5mo agoAutomating a large portion of existing white collar work, accelerating scientific discoveries, brain for robotics, etc. These are compelling offers.
- Avicebron 5mo agoSure, how does that benefit the public?
- aurareturn 5mo agoI don't know. Some will benefit, some will not. The topic here is the IPOs.
- justapassenger 5mo agoWhat have the Romans ever do for us?!
- undersuit 5mo agoTheir ruins are great tourist attractions.
- ArmadilloGang 5mo agoShort term, nations with a high rate of white collar employment and fewer social services will suffer greatly. Eventually, and likely in the lifetimes of most people living today, we would have to see something akin to universal basic income (UBI) that covers the necessities in order to stave off massive civil unrest. If the white collar labor of human beings can’t compete with the output of AI, we either all become blue collar workers or we re-invent the concepts of work and play. I’m not aware of any existing or proposed economy framework that adequately accounts for the automation that is nearly here at scale. We are not just automating away jobs - we are automating away the value that human beings have within a productive community. Before the mass starvation will come the mass suicide. Our culture teaches us that a feeling of self worth is derived from our perceived productivity. If we cannot feel successful, we may lose our wills to live.
- bluefirebrand 5mo ago> Before the mass starvation will come the mass suicide Maybe, but history suggests there will be massive riots instead
- bunderbunder 5mo agoI can’t imagine them actually being bullish about exponential growth, when both seem instead to be stagnating. I’m more inclined to believe they’re just maintaining a level of hype in public because that’s what you do.
- JumpCrisscross 5mo ago> when both seem instead to be stagnating What's the evidence for Anthropic stagnating?
- Eufrat 5mo agoThe same evidence that they are growing. Tea leaves.
- bunderbunder 5mo agoThey’ve claimed a big revenue run rate for this quarter. But it’s non-GAAP, so you kind of have to assume shenanigans. Earlier this year they were telling a court their revenue was like 1/4 of what they had told the public. I consider the number they came up with when they had to worry about committing perjury to be more trustworthy (because I’m a pill), so that would also indicate shenanigans. My guess is they are inflating that revenue run rate figure by booking token pre-payments from enterprise contracts now instead of spreading it over time as GAAP would mandate. And at the same time their big enterprise clients are talking about scaling back their usage. So we’ve got a combination of signs that they’ve been inflating their revenue growth, and signs that their customers are losing their appetite for contributing to that revenue growth. I suppose it’s not a slam dunk, but it feels to me like as strong an indicator as one could hope for a private blitzscaler startup like this.
- JumpCrisscross 5mo agoOh, to be clear, I'm not saying there is evidence they're all a-okay. I just hadn't seen any evidence that they were stalling out. (I have for OpenAI.)
- 5mo ago
- 2ff 5mo ago[flagged]
- JumpCrisscross 5mo ago> youre saying they will both become the economy They said exponential and you read unlimited.
- christophilus 5mo agoAn exponent on $1T isn’t unlimited, but it is an uninvestible thesis in my book.
- aurareturn 5mo agoThe private $1t already factors this in. It isn’t $1t growing exponentially.
- sinuhe69 5mo agoThe AI market might not collapse but the stock market could! Even if the AI companies only need to downgrade their investments and a healthy correction is underway, a fire sale of AI-related stocks will bring the stock market to its knees.
- zuzululu 5mo agoI don't really see this happening in the way that most people are envisioning. It's clear that Anthropic and OpenAI have found product market fit. They've gotten companies hooked and personally I cannot go back to the old way of coding. However, I do see a bit of reduced demand for hardware and datacenters which could reprice these companies to more sane multiples. There will be winners and losers.
- c1sc0 5mo agoBut will you need overpriced Codex and Claude? Most business code is crappy SaaS and glorified CRUD apps & I can build those with Sonnet / DeepSeek just fine …
- rconti 5mo agoHave you noticed that some % of devs are totally sold on AI, and others less so? I use it all the time, and I'd say my use is declining now after a fair bit of disillusionment. It's not hard to imagine a world in which: * Companies realize they're spending too much on AI, and cut back * AI companies start raising prices * Companies cut back on AI usage even more to compensate for the higher prices * Some individual users use less AI, while others continue to increase their usage The projected figures rely on EVERYTHING continuing to go up, which it doesn't seem to be.
- crthpl 5mo agowhere the heck are you seeing OpenAI racing to IPO before anthropic?