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AI is overhyped. I have yet to see an end user product that in itself isnt a wrapper around LLMs that is impressive created by LLM assistance. I have also yet t

AI is overhyped. I have yet to see an end user product that in itself isnt a wrapper around LLMs that is impressive created by LLM assistance. I have also yet to see dramatic increases of revenue of companies using LLMs that don't involve selling things in its supply chain. Is it a nice affordance? Sure. 1T capex good? No. If it was so good I would expect to see 2005-2015 advancements yearly. Meanwhile China is blowing past the world with real improvements in the real world- solar, EVs, etc. meanwhile people keep making their fancy sans serif websites about todo apps, faster than ever before. Useless.

dawnerd 5mo ago
Productivity gains seem like it’s at best a wash when you factor in the massive tech debt cleanup and additional time needed to spec and review.
- trollbridge 5mo ago
  Misuse of AI tools because of continuing a fundamentally broken software development process.
criddell 5mo ago
> I have yet to see an end user product that in itself isnt a wrapper around LLMs that is impressive created by LLM assistance. I don’t disagree that AI is overhyped. But I think you are probably looking in the wrong place. I think most software that is written isn’t really a product, at least not a public product. It’s an in-house tool or a one-off project needed to complete some larger task. People everywhere are always writing small programs that make their life or job just a bit easier (and explains why so many corporate projects are little more than an excel spreadsheet). And there are a lot of people who have made custom software just for themselves with AI. Not a product, just a tool or project that finally made sense to build.
- pessimizer 5mo ago
  But where's the revenue from those? It has to add up to a couple trillion dollars to break even on the capital spending.
  - pocksuppet 5mo ago
    Would you say the same about any other tool, like where is the revenue caused by Susan in accounting having a computer, shouldn't we take away her computer if she can't prove a benefit?
    - amazingamazing 5mo ago
      The benefit of a computer would be trivial to demonstrate.
      - _aavaa_ 5mo ago
        Trivial now. It was not always the case: http://digamo.free.fr/david90.pdf http://digamo.free.fr/david90.pdf
        gamblor956 5mo ago
        The benefits of computers were obvious before they went into production. After 1T in spend, it's still not clear that AIs will beat out a $30k secretary. Also, your link has nothing to do with computers.
        _aavaa_ 5mo ago
        The benefits of having a computer that we can now interact with in plain natural language, that can extract intent from vague questions/statements, and that can piece together answers is obvious. The link talks directly about the disconnect between the supposed productivity benefits of a technology and the measured productivity benefits of it in practice. And provides historical context about why the “obvious” benefits of a computer did not materialize when it was introduced; business and their processes had to be rebuilt around the computer before real gains were seen.
trollbridge 5mo ago
AI is both overhyped but is also revolutionary at the same time. I would agree that a lot of companies talking a big talk about using LLMs are failing to actually apply it in a sensible way to their business.
- simplesocieties 5mo ago
  In the time before LLMs, humans made satellites, Concorde, life-saving medical surgery, James-Webb Space Telescope, communication at the speed of light, the list goes on. What changes have LLMs (Not AI, not machine learning in general, I'm not going to waste time discussing the definition), LLMs made in the past 4 years that indicate anything close to the above? Solving a whiteboard math problem?
  - trollbridge 5mo ago
    Roughly the same phase as a few years after the Wright Brothers took off at Kitty Hawk. The Concorde is a long way off.
  - fragmede 5mo ago
    Yeah psh math. No one uses that!
threatofrain 5mo ago
Oh, war is transforming hard.
kajman 5mo ago
> Meanwhile China is blowing past the world with real improvements in the real world- solar, EVs, etc. meanwhile people keep making their fancy sans serif websites about todo apps, faster than ever before. Useless. Very little about the American economy even makes sense for keeping the edge on LLMs beyond a few years. All the things I would think would be required: energy, research, construction capacity, labor costs -- it's pretty hard to deny who's on the upswing these days. China cranking out current generation microchips will be the last nail in the coffin.

dawnerd 5mo ago

Productivity gains seem like it’s at best a wash when you factor in the massive tech debt cleanup and additional time needed to spec and review.

trollbridge 5mo ago
Misuse of AI tools because of continuing a fundamentally broken software development process.

criddell 5mo ago

> I have yet to see an end user product that in itself isnt a wrapper around LLMs that is impressive created by LLM assistance. I don’t disagree that AI is overhyped. But I think you are probably looking in the wrong place. I think most software that is written isn’t really a product, at least not a public product. It’s an in-house tool or a one-off project needed to complete some larger task. People everywhere are always writing small programs that make their life or job just a bit easier (and explains why so many corporate projects are little more than an excel spreadsheet). And there are a lot of people who have made custom software just for themselves with AI. Not a product, just a tool or project that finally made sense to build.

pessimizer 5mo ago
But where's the revenue from those? It has to add up to a couple trillion dollars to break even on the capital spending.
- pocksuppet 5mo ago
  Would you say the same about any other tool, like where is the revenue caused by Susan in accounting having a computer, shouldn't we take away her computer if she can't prove a benefit?
  - amazingamazing 5mo ago
    The benefit of a computer would be trivial to demonstrate.
    - _aavaa_ 5mo ago
      Trivial now. It was not always the case: http://digamo.free.fr/david90.pdf http://digamo.free.fr/david90.pdf
      - gamblor956 5mo ago
        The benefits of computers were obvious before they went into production. After 1T in spend, it's still not clear that AIs will beat out a $30k secretary. Also, your link has nothing to do with computers.
        _aavaa_ 5mo ago
        The benefits of having a computer that we can now interact with in plain natural language, that can extract intent from vague questions/statements, and that can piece together answers is obvious. The link talks directly about the disconnect between the supposed productivity benefits of a technology and the measured productivity benefits of it in practice. And provides historical context about why the “obvious” benefits of a computer did not materialize when it was introduced; business and their processes had to be rebuilt around the computer before real gains were seen.

trollbridge 5mo ago

AI is both overhyped but is also revolutionary at the same time. I would agree that a lot of companies talking a big talk about using LLMs are failing to actually apply it in a sensible way to their business.

simplesocieties 5mo ago
In the time before LLMs, humans made satellites, Concorde, life-saving medical surgery, James-Webb Space Telescope, communication at the speed of light, the list goes on. What changes have LLMs (Not AI, not machine learning in general, I'm not going to waste time discussing the definition), LLMs made in the past 4 years that indicate anything close to the above? Solving a whiteboard math problem?
- trollbridge 5mo ago
  Roughly the same phase as a few years after the Wright Brothers took off at Kitty Hawk. The Concorde is a long way off.
- fragmede 5mo ago
  Yeah psh math. No one uses that!

threatofrain 5mo ago

Oh, war is transforming hard.

kajman 5mo ago

> Meanwhile China is blowing past the world with real improvements in the real world- solar, EVs, etc. meanwhile people keep making their fancy sans serif websites about todo apps, faster than ever before. Useless. Very little about the American economy even makes sense for keeping the edge on LLMs beyond a few years. All the things I would think would be required: energy, research, construction capacity, labor costs -- it's pretty hard to deny who's on the upswing these days. China cranking out current generation microchips will be the last nail in the coffin.