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I have full confidence that, given enough time, Musk can create the technology necessary to ferry people to Mars and establish a colony. That's an engineering p

I have full confidence that, given enough time, Musk can create the technology necessary to ferry people to Mars and establish a colony. That's an engineering problem, and as we've seen he's very adept at building companies to tackle those. But the key problem then becomes: why would people want to spend $0.5m to deal with all the inconveniences of being a first settler on Mars? It takes months to go there, and once you're there you'll be stuck in cramped quarters with only basic amenities. Plus the health risks of radiation and equipment failure. So people need to be compensated for these inconveniences and risks with a salary greater than they could make on Earth. This means that you need a functioning Martian economy. People won't go en masse without it making economic sense for them to do so. But in order for that to develop, the colony needs to produce something of value. To draw an analogy to the European settlement of North America, the first permanent European settlements were port towns for exporting resources like furs and minerals back to Europe. In this way, the North American economy was bootstrapped off of the European economy. The same thing needs to happen here where we need to bootstrap a Martian economy off of the Earth economy by exporting resources back to Earth.

bandushrew 14y ago
I have a family of 4 and do not have 0.5m. If those two things were not true, I would be heading for mars in a second, inconveniences be damned. If he can build it, people will come.
- a-priori 14y ago
  If I walked into a bank with a job offer on Mars for, say, 4x my Earthly salary, they might be willing to loan me $500k. I might be willing to pay it even if I'd only make 3x my salary after the loan payments. If this becomes a reality, banks would come out of the woodworks willing to provide the necessary financing -- at significant interest rates, of course. But that would open up the pool of candidates quite a bit beyond just those who have $500k in assets.
  - ceejayoz 14y ago
    If that happens, immigrant #2 to Mars is going to be a collections agent.
    - jiaaro 14y ago
      indentured servants on Mars! hooray! Sarcasm aside, this actually sounds quite possible, and all other things being equal, I might even be interested. Funny creatures, those humans
Luyt 14y ago
> "the first permanent European settlements were port towns for exporting resources like furs and minerals back to Europe" That, or fugitives (either criminal or religious). I don't see a religious group on Earth yet who wants to flee to Mars. The Raelians perhaps ;-)
arscan 14y ago
Designing an electric car that people actually want to buy is a lot more than an engineering problem, too. Why would somebody want to pay 50k on a car that can only drive a few hundred miles before needing a couple hours to recharge? It all seems so simple now that Tesla is gaining traction, but it was considered a huge risk just a few years ago. I'd say that Elon truly excels at coming up with creative ways to overcome barriers... and those barriers aren't always engineering related.
mtgx 14y ago
Elon thinks people with enough money to go there for the thrill of it will be the first to do so, not people who can't earn enough money right now, and would do it mostly for the money, just like a lot of people have volunteered to go to war for the salary they would earn. But I can see that happening later on, in an effort to get "normal" people moving there.
- Jtsummers 14y ago
  And early colonists might likely be scientists with funding from other organizations rather than out of pocket. $500k/person to send a team of specialists plus a few million more for their equipment and get a much more thorough examination of martian geology and biology (or biologic potential). Then you get support personnel, then other ventures associated with establishing more longterm potential for individuals (growing and preparing food stuffs, manufacture of goods where local resources are available rather than shipping, etc).
sakri 14y ago
People will do anything for fame.
jhuckestein 14y ago
I don't see that as a problem. If I'm not otherwise committed when we have a colony, I'd be the first to go. After that, OTHER PEOPLE will find ways to monetize. People went to America because it was an untouched land of opportunity, not because somebody told them they could export furs. It was clear that there was opportunity but unclear what it might be. I can think of many things that could make your rich on Mars. Any kind of sports/competitions in reduced gravity, space hotels/amenities (things that makes space more like home) and indeed mining of raw materials. And these are just the first things that come to mind. There's probably better ideas.
- yock 14y ago
  The early European-American settlers still had a basic expectation of the availability of natural resources. In the case of Mars, natural resources aren't simply an unknown, we know Mars to be a desolate place largely free of any valuable resources. This knowledge may change with boots on the ground, but the risk to those explorers far, far exceeds the risk taken by those early colinists.
- rthomas6 14y ago
  Reality TV will be there. I'm only mostly joking.
JoeAltmaier 14y ago
Since you ask the question, you are clearly not the target audience. As Spider Robinson has written to similar questions, some folks have another column in their life ledger, labelled 'satisfaction'. You can't see it, so their behavior seems irrational. Furthermore, its not clear that money on Earth will have any meaning on Mars. You can't take it with you, in a way. To go to Mars at all, requires a sacrifice of your entire life on Earth, in exchange for a chance at a new life. I would do this, sacrificing all I have on Earth, for the chance to do something really important.
- aneth4 14y ago
  "some folks have another column in their life ledger, labelled 'satisfaction'. You can't see it, so their behavior seems irrational." I like that. Is that a Spider Robinson quote? Couldn't find it.
  - JoeAltmaier 14y ago
    Somewhere in the Callahan books, in particular once when discussing an Irish Coffee robot.
  - superchink 14y ago
    "How could he show a profit?" 'By creating a category in his book-keeping called 'Satisfaction,'… Found this here: http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:fE2iC6c9o20J:www.pdfdocspace.com/docs/38753/spider-robinson---the-immediate-family.html+&cd=19&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:fE2iC6c...
ChuckMcM 14y ago
Clearly not a student of history :-) The first people out the door and on their way will be the people who are sick and tired of the way this planet is run, they'll have new ideas about how things could be done. This is not entirely unlike the folks who sold everything they owned, bought a wagon and headed west. Motivation was land ownership, and presumably a colony would make some rules about letting you own a chunk of Mars. Perhaps you could become a water farmer.

bandushrew 14y ago

I have a family of 4 and do not have 0.5m. If those two things were not true, I would be heading for mars in a second, inconveniences be damned. If he can build it, people will come.

a-priori 14y ago
If I walked into a bank with a job offer on Mars for, say, 4x my Earthly salary, they might be willing to loan me $500k. I might be willing to pay it even if I'd only make 3x my salary after the loan payments. If this becomes a reality, banks would come out of the woodworks willing to provide the necessary financing -- at significant interest rates, of course. But that would open up the pool of candidates quite a bit beyond just those who have $500k in assets.
- ceejayoz 14y ago
  If that happens, immigrant #2 to Mars is going to be a collections agent.
  - jiaaro 14y ago
    indentured servants on Mars! hooray! Sarcasm aside, this actually sounds quite possible, and all other things being equal, I might even be interested. Funny creatures, those humans

Luyt 14y ago

> "the first permanent European settlements were port towns for exporting resources like furs and minerals back to Europe" That, or fugitives (either criminal or religious). I don't see a religious group on Earth yet who wants to flee to Mars. The Raelians perhaps ;-)

arscan 14y ago

Designing an electric car that people actually want to buy is a lot more than an engineering problem, too. Why would somebody want to pay 50k on a car that can only drive a few hundred miles before needing a couple hours to recharge? It all seems so simple now that Tesla is gaining traction, but it was considered a huge risk just a few years ago. I'd say that Elon truly excels at coming up with creative ways to overcome barriers... and those barriers aren't always engineering related.

mtgx 14y ago

Elon thinks people with enough money to go there for the thrill of it will be the first to do so, not people who can't earn enough money right now, and would do it mostly for the money, just like a lot of people have volunteered to go to war for the salary they would earn. But I can see that happening later on, in an effort to get "normal" people moving there.

Jtsummers 14y ago
And early colonists might likely be scientists with funding from other organizations rather than out of pocket. $500k/person to send a team of specialists plus a few million more for their equipment and get a much more thorough examination of martian geology and biology (or biologic potential). Then you get support personnel, then other ventures associated with establishing more longterm potential for individuals (growing and preparing food stuffs, manufacture of goods where local resources are available rather than shipping, etc).

sakri 14y ago

People will do anything for fame.

jhuckestein 14y ago

I don't see that as a problem. If I'm not otherwise committed when we have a colony, I'd be the first to go. After that, OTHER PEOPLE will find ways to monetize. People went to America because it was an untouched land of opportunity, not because somebody told them they could export furs. It was clear that there was opportunity but unclear what it might be. I can think of many things that could make your rich on Mars. Any kind of sports/competitions in reduced gravity, space hotels/amenities (things that makes space more like home) and indeed mining of raw materials. And these are just the first things that come to mind. There's probably better ideas.

yock 14y ago
The early European-American settlers still had a basic expectation of the availability of natural resources. In the case of Mars, natural resources aren't simply an unknown, we know Mars to be a desolate place largely free of any valuable resources. This knowledge may change with boots on the ground, but the risk to those explorers far, far exceeds the risk taken by those early colinists.
rthomas6 14y ago
Reality TV will be there. I'm only mostly joking.

JoeAltmaier 14y ago

Since you ask the question, you are clearly not the target audience. As Spider Robinson has written to similar questions, some folks have another column in their life ledger, labelled 'satisfaction'. You can't see it, so their behavior seems irrational. Furthermore, its not clear that money on Earth will have any meaning on Mars. You can't take it with you, in a way. To go to Mars at all, requires a sacrifice of your entire life on Earth, in exchange for a chance at a new life. I would do this, sacrificing all I have on Earth, for the chance to do something really important.

aneth4 14y ago
"some folks have another column in their life ledger, labelled 'satisfaction'. You can't see it, so their behavior seems irrational." I like that. Is that a Spider Robinson quote? Couldn't find it.
- JoeAltmaier 14y ago
  Somewhere in the Callahan books, in particular once when discussing an Irish Coffee robot.
- superchink 14y ago
  "How could he show a profit?" 'By creating a category in his book-keeping called 'Satisfaction,'… Found this here: http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:fE2iC6c9o20J:www.pdfdocspace.com/docs/38753/spider-robinson---the-immediate-family.html+&cd=19&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:fE2iC6c...

ChuckMcM 14y ago

Clearly not a student of history :-) The first people out the door and on their way will be the people who are sick and tired of the way this planet is run, they'll have new ideas about how things could be done. This is not entirely unlike the folks who sold everything they owned, bought a wagon and headed west. Motivation was land ownership, and presumably a colony would make some rules about letting you own a chunk of Mars. Perhaps you could become a water farmer.