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Google is telling me that there were production drops in 2025, but it was (1) due to an oversupply caused by Japanese ethylene and benzene exports fell due new

by tzs 5mo ago

Google is telling me that there were production drops in 2025, but it was (1) due to an oversupply caused by Japanese ethylene and benzene exports fell due new plants in China and an increase in cheaper exports from the US to Asian markets, and (2) domestic gasoline consumption dropping. Everything I can find says the shortages now are due to the Iran war.

deleted 5mo ago
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thrownthatway 5mo ago
[flagged]
- relistan 5mo ago
  They did say "everything I can find" which, while not citing references, you would also have found it you tried to Google this at all. Here's one https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/24/business/what-is-naphtha.html https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/24/business/what-is-naphtha.... here's another one: https://www.irishtimes.com/world/asia-pacific/2026/05/19/please-avoid-panic-buying-japan-gripped-by-fears-of-a-naphtha-shortage-what-is-it-and-why-are-people-so-worried/ https://www.irishtimes.com/world/asia-pacific/2026/05/19/ple... It's wider than Japan, it's in other countries in Asia. It's directly tied to the war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. But it's pretty clear you have your own axe to grind.
  - thrownthatway 5mo ago
    [flagged]
    - tzs 5mo ago
      The first search was something like "Why is Japan having a naphtha shortage?". The results from that were almost all saying it is due to the war in Iran. A later search was something like "Why was naphtha production in Japan lower in 2025 than in previous year?" because somewhere in there I had looked for a table of production by year and there was a decline in 2025. Nothing I saw in any of the results suggested that any policies of the current Japanese administration were a significant cause of the production decline in 2025, or that the decline was enough to cause any shortages itself, and that the drop in imports due to the war is much larger to the point that shortages would be nearly as bad now even if production had not dropped. I should have done more more search, to find out when the current administration came to power. I knew it was in 2025 but assumed it was early in the year. It was actually late in the year, after production had dropped.

by tzs 5mo ago

deleted 5mo ago

[deleted]

thrownthatway 5mo ago

[flagged]

relistan 5mo ago
They did say "everything I can find" which, while not citing references, you would also have found it you tried to Google this at all. Here's one https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/24/business/what-is-naphtha.html https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/24/business/what-is-naphtha.... here's another one: https://www.irishtimes.com/world/asia-pacific/2026/05/19/please-avoid-panic-buying-japan-gripped-by-fears-of-a-naphtha-shortage-what-is-it-and-why-are-people-so-worried/ https://www.irishtimes.com/world/asia-pacific/2026/05/19/ple... It's wider than Japan, it's in other countries in Asia. It's directly tied to the war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. But it's pretty clear you have your own axe to grind.
- thrownthatway 5mo ago
  [flagged]
  - tzs 5mo ago
    The first search was something like "Why is Japan having a naphtha shortage?". The results from that were almost all saying it is due to the war in Iran. A later search was something like "Why was naphtha production in Japan lower in 2025 than in previous year?" because somewhere in there I had looked for a table of production by year and there was a decline in 2025. Nothing I saw in any of the results suggested that any policies of the current Japanese administration were a significant cause of the production decline in 2025, or that the decline was enough to cause any shortages itself, and that the drop in imports due to the war is much larger to the point that shortages would be nearly as bad now even if production had not dropped. I should have done more more search, to find out when the current administration came to power. I knew it was in 2025 but assumed it was early in the year. It was actually late in the year, after production had dropped.