5 ms·

SpaceX founder Elon Musk wants to start a Mars colony

41 points by ytNumbers 14y ago

mtgx 14y ago
We're probably 5-10 years away until they can even send a rocket to Mars with humans, and another 10 years until the idea of a colony can begin to take shape. It's all very exciting, though.
notdrunkatall 14y ago
Elon Musk is my hero.
agracey 14y ago
Where do I sign up? I can take out a loan
- jlgreco 14y ago
  I rather doubt any bank would lend you money if you intend to use it to put yourself on Mars. Maybe unless they were satisfied the risks were low enough and confident that you would continue to have an income of money that could be used to pay back an Earth debt. Even then there is the issue of collateral. I suspect Mars will be only for those with a total net worth of at least 500k (selling all of your Earth assets to get there probably makes sense).
a-priori 14y ago
I have full confidence that, given enough time, Musk can create the technology necessary to ferry people to Mars and establish a colony. That's an engineering problem, and as we've seen he's very adept at building companies to tackle those. But the key problem then becomes: why would people want to spend $0.5m to deal with all the inconveniences of being a first settler on Mars? It takes months to go there, and once you're there you'll be stuck in cramped quarters with only basic amenities. Plus the health risks of radiation and equipment failure. So people need to be compensated for these inconveniences and risks with a salary greater than they could make on Earth. This means that you need a functioning Martian economy. People won't go en masse without it making economic sense for them to do so. But in order for that to develop, the colony needs to produce something of value. To draw an analogy to the European settlement of North America, the first permanent European settlements were port towns for exporting resources like furs and minerals back to Europe. In this way, the North American economy was bootstrapped off of the European economy. The same thing needs to happen here where we need to bootstrap a Martian economy off of the Earth economy by exporting resources back to Earth.
- bandushrew 14y ago
  I have a family of 4 and do not have 0.5m. If those two things were not true, I would be heading for mars in a second, inconveniences be damned. If he can build it, people will come.
  - a-priori 14y ago
    If I walked into a bank with a job offer on Mars for, say, 4x my Earthly salary, they might be willing to loan me $500k. I might be willing to pay it even if I'd only make 3x my salary after the loan payments. If this becomes a reality, banks would come out of the woodworks willing to provide the necessary financing -- at significant interest rates, of course. But that would open up the pool of candidates quite a bit beyond just those who have $500k in assets.
    - ceejayoz 14y ago
      If that happens, immigrant #2 to Mars is going to be a collections agent.
      - jiaaro 14y ago
        indentured servants on Mars! hooray! Sarcasm aside, this actually sounds quite possible, and all other things being equal, I might even be interested. Funny creatures, those humans
- Luyt 14y ago
  > "the first permanent European settlements were port towns for exporting resources like furs and minerals back to Europe" That, or fugitives (either criminal or religious). I don't see a religious group on Earth yet who wants to flee to Mars. The Raelians perhaps ;-)
- arscan 14y ago
  Designing an electric car that people actually want to buy is a lot more than an engineering problem, too. Why would somebody want to pay 50k on a car that can only drive a few hundred miles before needing a couple hours to recharge? It all seems so simple now that Tesla is gaining traction, but it was considered a huge risk just a few years ago. I'd say that Elon truly excels at coming up with creative ways to overcome barriers... and those barriers aren't always engineering related.
truncate 14y ago
Isn't Mars atmosphere and climate unsuitable for humans? I don't think technology to "hack atmosphere" will be ready in this century.
- Luyt 14y ago
  Mars atmosphere is also very sparse, almost like a vacuum. "The highest atmospheric density on Mars is equal to the density found 35 km above the Earth's surface." source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars#Atmosphere http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars#Atmosphere
- mtgx 14y ago
  Some suggest that if they could melt the core of Mars, which is solid right now, it would create the magnetic field that Mars dearly needs to keep the atmosphere on its surface, and also to protect the people there from the radiations. But yeah, that doesn't sound very easy either, and who knows what kind of problems it could create if attempted (like awakening the large vulcanos, or worse). More interesting reading here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terraforming_of_Mars http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terraforming_of_Mars
throwaway5426 14y ago
People on HN are for the most part in awe of this vision(colonizing Mars). I find interesting to confront this vision with a mystic's opinion. Why? Because both scientists and mystics seek to acquire knowledge, although the path undertaken is of a significantly different nature. One seeks outside himself, the other inside. Here is a rephrasing of a quote of Meher Baba (a respected spiritual master): What will man find on mars? nothing but himself. (He said it about the moon) I am genuinely curious to know the opinion of the HN crowd about the fundamental disagreement between these two visions?
- mercurial 14y ago
  It's not necessarily contradictory. Such an experience would change the life of the participants. While not the goal of the experience, the end result might be the same.
- mburns 14y ago
  That is a bunch of unhelpful babbling. The answer to "why?" is just as easily given: "why not?" No more need be justified. >Because both scientists and mystics seek to acquire knowledge, although the path undertaken is of a significantly different nature. One has a testable process that can be shared with other people, the other doesn't. You can call your search for truth whatever you like, but the process makes all the difference. Alchemists sought truth, etc, etc. >"What will man find on mars? nothing but himself." So what? How should that at all influence whether it happens or not? It is like saying "Wherever you go, that is where you are". True, but unhelpful. You can use it to justify or not justify undertaking whatever action, depending on how you choose to interpret it at the time. "Finding myself" (on whatever level you choose to define 'Find' and 'myself') on Mars sounds awesome, not disappointing.
drd 14y ago
Normally, settlers leave their home land because they don’t have anything to lose. So they look for new things that may improve their lives; just look at the history. Why on earth, rich people want to go to Mars? They cannot drive a Ferrari; they cannot build a mansion either. Just to prove that they are cool people? Paul Graham said: “Live in the future, and then build what's missing.” Probably Elon Mask is trying to apply this rule. Well, at least I don’t get it.
- JoeAltmaier 14y ago
  Rich people are winning a game. Its a way of making your life meaningful. Its not a very good way. Making a future for mankind - that's a very cool game. I'd go in a heartbeat, and I'm doing fine in America (more than fine - been a startup founder many times, money in the bank).
  - drd 14y ago
    So, knowing that there may be no return, you are ready to leave everything and start over in an extremely unknown environment. The support may be a few years away. You leave your family, friends, and relatives for making a meaningful life? Doesn’t this look more like suicide? I think there are many much better ways to make a future for mankind. Just look at the children in Africa. Technology innovations can do a lot on earth.
    - JoeAltmaier 14y ago
      If that's a sincere comment I expect you're already in Africa helping the children. Else, maybe you are doing something for yourself or your family. This is more like that. Of course I'd not go if it was suicide. But technology can overcome lots of hurdles. Colonists in the past had the same decision to make, and here we are in America to prove it. I just know that every photograph I see of Mars landscape, I feel a rush, I want to run to that far horizon and see what's there.
      - drd 14y ago
VMG 14y ago
I wonder if he is a believer in the technological singularity.
- jlgreco 14y ago
  It seems to me there are two types of people interested in the colonizing of Mars. Those who think it will happen eventually, and those who want to make it happen. Elon seems to be firmly in the "I want to make things happen camp." With his involvement in Telsa, SolarCity, and the rumors of the hyperloop thing, it seems like he applies this attitude towards just about everything he is interested in, no matter how outlandish. I suspect he probably doesn't spend to much time thinking about what would be cool if other people did something. He may consider it idly once in a while, but I would be surprised if he considers it seriously while also not involving himself in it. Obviously you'd have to ask him though.
  - enraged_camel 14y ago
    >>It seems to me there are two types of people interested in the colonizing of Mars. Those who think it will happen eventually, and those who want to make it happen. The funny thing is that colonization of Mars is not something that will happen without the latter group. There is currently no economic sense in going there, which bars it from happening on its own.
    - jlgreco 14y ago
      Quite right. The precursors to runaway technological advance (or other meanings of "technological singularity") could definitely make economic sense, meaning that a singularity could occur without the same sort of semi-irrational drive and vision that the "make it happen" people provide. While those people are necessary for Mars colonization, they may not be for a technological singularity.
- curiousepic 14y ago
  He's definitely instrumental in what's called the "mundane" singularity, if the tech one doesn't happen.
BklynJay 14y ago
What could possibly go wrong?
- jlgreco 14y ago
  Worse case scenario: we get lots of people up there, then lose the ability to resupply them. They, not yet being self-sufficient, all die slowly. I think everyone who would consider going understands the risks.
mtgx 14y ago
Here's an idea. Elon Musk says he'll have the re-usable rocket ready in the next few years, and he says it will be a huge thing for the space industry, and what will basically make travelling to Mars possible. Is anyone else even anywhere near close to that? Probably not. So what if he does something crazy such as open sourcing the design of his re-usable rocket, with the condition that anyone who uses pieces or the entirety of the design has to give back the improvements as well. I'm not sure what effect this would have on his company. It might push him to focus even more on execution, but I think it would also greatly accelerate this space flight race. The good thing about this is that any future rocket or spacecrafts that would use at least some of the ideas in that design, would be forced to open source everything else. So in a way, he could create something like the Linux kernel of the space world, and we could see a lot of innovation coming out of that, all of which would have to be turned back into open source, and help future, greater innovations appear even faster.
- jlgreco 14y ago
  US export restrictions on rocket technology would likely be an issue.
  - thematt 14y ago
    Specifically ITAR. It would never be allowed.
  - neurotech1 14y ago
    It would be possible to create a "ITAR Free" design. Also, there are a number of open source projects that are using NDA'd technical information. The other option is that each country have their own "group" and obtain export licenses between member groups. This is basically how the JSF program operates, each member country has the export clearance needed. http://www.copenhagensuborbitals.com/ http://www.copenhagensuborbitals.com/ Copenhagen Suborbitals are probably the closest to actually having an open source spacecraft. They do have this on their website; "We intend to share all our techninal information as much as possible, within the laws of EU-export control."
- broabprobe 14y ago
yohann305 14y ago
PEOPLE STOP trying to find good reasons whether we should colonize Mars or not. Interplanetary colonization will happen. It's just a matter of time. Now we have a visionary man named Elon Musk that has proven himself by realizing the impossible not once not twice but 4 times. Let's all support him and contribute our 2 cents to make it happen in our times. AMEN
fastball 14y ago
So is the first mass transit system of this Mars colony going to be a hyperloop?

41 points by ytNumbers 14y ago

mtgx 14y ago

We're probably 5-10 years away until they can even send a rocket to Mars with humans, and another 10 years until the idea of a colony can begin to take shape. It's all very exciting, though.

notdrunkatall 14y ago

Elon Musk is my hero.

agracey 14y ago

Where do I sign up? I can take out a loan

jlgreco 14y ago
I rather doubt any bank would lend you money if you intend to use it to put yourself on Mars. Maybe unless they were satisfied the risks were low enough and confident that you would continue to have an income of money that could be used to pay back an Earth debt. Even then there is the issue of collateral. I suspect Mars will be only for those with a total net worth of at least 500k (selling all of your Earth assets to get there probably makes sense).

a-priori 14y ago

I have full confidence that, given enough time, Musk can create the technology necessary to ferry people to Mars and establish a colony. That's an engineering problem, and as we've seen he's very adept at building companies to tackle those. But the key problem then becomes: why would people want to spend $0.5m to deal with all the inconveniences of being a first settler on Mars? It takes months to go there, and once you're there you'll be stuck in cramped quarters with only basic amenities. Plus the health risks of radiation and equipment failure. So people need to be compensated for these inconveniences and risks with a salary greater than they could make on Earth. This means that you need a functioning Martian economy. People won't go en masse without it making economic sense for them to do so. But in order for that to develop, the colony needs to produce something of value. To draw an analogy to the European settlement of North America, the first permanent European settlements were port towns for exporting resources like furs and minerals back to Europe. In this way, the North American economy was bootstrapped off of the European economy. The same thing needs to happen here where we need to bootstrap a Martian economy off of the Earth economy by exporting resources back to Earth.

bandushrew 14y ago
I have a family of 4 and do not have 0.5m. If those two things were not true, I would be heading for mars in a second, inconveniences be damned. If he can build it, people will come.
- a-priori 14y ago
  If I walked into a bank with a job offer on Mars for, say, 4x my Earthly salary, they might be willing to loan me $500k. I might be willing to pay it even if I'd only make 3x my salary after the loan payments. If this becomes a reality, banks would come out of the woodworks willing to provide the necessary financing -- at significant interest rates, of course. But that would open up the pool of candidates quite a bit beyond just those who have $500k in assets.
  - ceejayoz 14y ago
    If that happens, immigrant #2 to Mars is going to be a collections agent.
    - jiaaro 14y ago
      indentured servants on Mars! hooray! Sarcasm aside, this actually sounds quite possible, and all other things being equal, I might even be interested. Funny creatures, those humans
Luyt 14y ago
> "the first permanent European settlements were port towns for exporting resources like furs and minerals back to Europe" That, or fugitives (either criminal or religious). I don't see a religious group on Earth yet who wants to flee to Mars. The Raelians perhaps ;-)
arscan 14y ago
Designing an electric car that people actually want to buy is a lot more than an engineering problem, too. Why would somebody want to pay 50k on a car that can only drive a few hundred miles before needing a couple hours to recharge? It all seems so simple now that Tesla is gaining traction, but it was considered a huge risk just a few years ago. I'd say that Elon truly excels at coming up with creative ways to overcome barriers... and those barriers aren't always engineering related.

truncate 14y ago

Isn't Mars atmosphere and climate unsuitable for humans? I don't think technology to "hack atmosphere" will be ready in this century.

Luyt 14y ago
Mars atmosphere is also very sparse, almost like a vacuum. "The highest atmospheric density on Mars is equal to the density found 35 km above the Earth's surface." source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars#Atmosphere http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars#Atmosphere
mtgx 14y ago
Some suggest that if they could melt the core of Mars, which is solid right now, it would create the magnetic field that Mars dearly needs to keep the atmosphere on its surface, and also to protect the people there from the radiations. But yeah, that doesn't sound very easy either, and who knows what kind of problems it could create if attempted (like awakening the large vulcanos, or worse). More interesting reading here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terraforming_of_Mars http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terraforming_of_Mars

throwaway5426 14y ago

People on HN are for the most part in awe of this vision(colonizing Mars). I find interesting to confront this vision with a mystic's opinion. Why? Because both scientists and mystics seek to acquire knowledge, although the path undertaken is of a significantly different nature. One seeks outside himself, the other inside. Here is a rephrasing of a quote of Meher Baba (a respected spiritual master): What will man find on mars? nothing but himself. (He said it about the moon) I am genuinely curious to know the opinion of the HN crowd about the fundamental disagreement between these two visions?

mercurial 14y ago
It's not necessarily contradictory. Such an experience would change the life of the participants. While not the goal of the experience, the end result might be the same.
mburns 14y ago
That is a bunch of unhelpful babbling. The answer to "why?" is just as easily given: "why not?" No more need be justified. >Because both scientists and mystics seek to acquire knowledge, although the path undertaken is of a significantly different nature. One has a testable process that can be shared with other people, the other doesn't. You can call your search for truth whatever you like, but the process makes all the difference. Alchemists sought truth, etc, etc. >"What will man find on mars? nothing but himself." So what? How should that at all influence whether it happens or not? It is like saying "Wherever you go, that is where you are". True, but unhelpful. You can use it to justify or not justify undertaking whatever action, depending on how you choose to interpret it at the time. "Finding myself" (on whatever level you choose to define 'Find' and 'myself') on Mars sounds awesome, not disappointing.

drd 14y ago

Normally, settlers leave their home land because they don’t have anything to lose. So they look for new things that may improve their lives; just look at the history. Why on earth, rich people want to go to Mars? They cannot drive a Ferrari; they cannot build a mansion either. Just to prove that they are cool people? Paul Graham said: “Live in the future, and then build what's missing.” Probably Elon Mask is trying to apply this rule. Well, at least I don’t get it.

JoeAltmaier 14y ago
Rich people are winning a game. Its a way of making your life meaningful. Its not a very good way. Making a future for mankind - that's a very cool game. I'd go in a heartbeat, and I'm doing fine in America (more than fine - been a startup founder many times, money in the bank).
- drd 14y ago
  So, knowing that there may be no return, you are ready to leave everything and start over in an extremely unknown environment. The support may be a few years away. You leave your family, friends, and relatives for making a meaningful life? Doesn’t this look more like suicide? I think there are many much better ways to make a future for mankind. Just look at the children in Africa. Technology innovations can do a lot on earth.
  - JoeAltmaier 14y ago
    If that's a sincere comment I expect you're already in Africa helping the children. Else, maybe you are doing something for yourself or your family. This is more like that. Of course I'd not go if it was suicide. But technology can overcome lots of hurdles. Colonists in the past had the same decision to make, and here we are in America to prove it. I just know that every photograph I see of Mars landscape, I feel a rush, I want to run to that far horizon and see what's there.
    - drd 14y ago

VMG 14y ago

I wonder if he is a believer in the technological singularity.

jlgreco 14y ago
It seems to me there are two types of people interested in the colonizing of Mars. Those who think it will happen eventually, and those who want to make it happen. Elon seems to be firmly in the "I want to make things happen camp." With his involvement in Telsa, SolarCity, and the rumors of the hyperloop thing, it seems like he applies this attitude towards just about everything he is interested in, no matter how outlandish. I suspect he probably doesn't spend to much time thinking about what would be cool if other people did something. He may consider it idly once in a while, but I would be surprised if he considers it seriously while also not involving himself in it. Obviously you'd have to ask him though.
- enraged_camel 14y ago
  >>It seems to me there are two types of people interested in the colonizing of Mars. Those who think it will happen eventually, and those who want to make it happen. The funny thing is that colonization of Mars is not something that will happen without the latter group. There is currently no economic sense in going there, which bars it from happening on its own.
  - jlgreco 14y ago
    Quite right. The precursors to runaway technological advance (or other meanings of "technological singularity") could definitely make economic sense, meaning that a singularity could occur without the same sort of semi-irrational drive and vision that the "make it happen" people provide. While those people are necessary for Mars colonization, they may not be for a technological singularity.
curiousepic 14y ago
He's definitely instrumental in what's called the "mundane" singularity, if the tech one doesn't happen.

BklynJay 14y ago

What could possibly go wrong?

jlgreco 14y ago
Worse case scenario: we get lots of people up there, then lose the ability to resupply them. They, not yet being self-sufficient, all die slowly. I think everyone who would consider going understands the risks.

mtgx 14y ago

Here's an idea. Elon Musk says he'll have the re-usable rocket ready in the next few years, and he says it will be a huge thing for the space industry, and what will basically make travelling to Mars possible. Is anyone else even anywhere near close to that? Probably not. So what if he does something crazy such as open sourcing the design of his re-usable rocket, with the condition that anyone who uses pieces or the entirety of the design has to give back the improvements as well. I'm not sure what effect this would have on his company. It might push him to focus even more on execution, but I think it would also greatly accelerate this space flight race. The good thing about this is that any future rocket or spacecrafts that would use at least some of the ideas in that design, would be forced to open source everything else. So in a way, he could create something like the Linux kernel of the space world, and we could see a lot of innovation coming out of that, all of which would have to be turned back into open source, and help future, greater innovations appear even faster.

jlgreco 14y ago
US export restrictions on rocket technology would likely be an issue.
- thematt 14y ago
  Specifically ITAR. It would never be allowed.
- neurotech1 14y ago
  It would be possible to create a "ITAR Free" design. Also, there are a number of open source projects that are using NDA'd technical information. The other option is that each country have their own "group" and obtain export licenses between member groups. This is basically how the JSF program operates, each member country has the export clearance needed. http://www.copenhagensuborbitals.com/ http://www.copenhagensuborbitals.com/ Copenhagen Suborbitals are probably the closest to actually having an open source spacecraft. They do have this on their website; "We intend to share all our techninal information as much as possible, within the laws of EU-export control."
broabprobe 14y ago

yohann305 14y ago

PEOPLE STOP trying to find good reasons whether we should colonize Mars or not. Interplanetary colonization will happen. It's just a matter of time. Now we have a visionary man named Elon Musk that has proven himself by realizing the impossible not once not twice but 4 times. Let's all support him and contribute our 2 cents to make it happen in our times. AMEN

fastball 14y ago

So is the first mass transit system of this Mars colony going to be a hyperloop?