4 ms·

I can't help but think of Iphone updates since about 2018. The thinnest, fastest, longest battery life Iphone ever. It seems mostly the same and I probably won'

by pbmango 4mo ago

I can't help but think of Iphone updates since about 2018. The thinnest, fastest, longest battery life Iphone ever. It seems mostly the same and I probably won't be able to tell other than the name, but everyone buys it anyway. This is good psychology for the labs. When Buffett invested in Apple he loved citing how most people would rather give up their second car than their Iphone.

MangoCoffee 4mo ago
ChatGPT came out in 2022. Back then it was just a chatbot. Now we have AI agents. What matters is how we use them and how the agents get better. That’s what will move AI forward.
- zozbot234 4mo ago
  An 'AI agent' is just a chatbot that is told to type commands on a REPL-like interface as part of its system prompt. It's still processing pure text-based requests and responses, they're just not restricted to natural language.
  - arbitrandomuser 4mo ago
    A lot of people dont know this , also the chatbot (chatgpt) itself is a next token predictor (the GPT) that's been given an initial text that says " pretend to be a chatbot .." and asked to complete it , the coherant chatting behaviour is something thats emergent . later on someone figured if you asked it to output a reasoning before it gave a response its output would have more logical coherence, as though the reasoning output tokens functioned as a scratch space for it to work on. at the end its all next token prediction
    - hellohello2 4mo ago
      No, chatbots are LLMs trained for question-answering through RLHF (its not just a prompt). But yes, if you just zero-shot prompt a bare LLM you can still "talk to it" & you are correct on everything else as far as I know.
    - fragmede 4mo ago
      At lot of people don't know this, also the human brain is a squishy lump of meat. that's been given a childhood and the prompt "act like an adult", and asked to behave. The coherant chatting behaviour is something thats emergent . later on someone figured if you shove Adderall in it and it to think before it speaks, it gave a response its output would have more logical coherence, as though the Adderall concentration drugd functioned as a scratch space for it to work on. in the end its a squishy lump of meat.
      - Alex_L_Wood 4mo ago
        How much must one tie their self-worth to a chatbot to debase themselves like that? To think that a winner in the arms and intelligence race of animal kingdom, a member of the species that made this chatbot, would put down themselves like that in the defense of the thoughtless silicon is absolutely laughable and depressing at the same time.
        fragmede 4mo ago
        I'm merely pointing out the logical fallacy of thinking complex systems can't arise from simpler components in an obtuse fashion. Ants are stupid individually, yet they're able to create giant structures in the wild. Hating on AI and calling it next word prediction isn't going to save anyone's jobs. Organizing will. Voting will.
      - NateEag 4mo ago
        We know from living as humans that we have experiences. We have no such evidence that LLMs do. That's a pretty significant difference between the next-token predictor and the squishy lump of meat.
  - hellohello2 4mo ago
    They are chatbots trained for tool use, its not just a prompt.
  - furyofantares 4mo ago
    Yeah and a car is just an engine connected to wheels.
  - sigmarule 4mo ago
    An AI agent and a chatbot are both applications built using LLM inference as a primitive.
  - smj-edison 4mo ago
    Yeah. LLMs are fundamentally a batch-based system, and we smear a veneer of liveness and autonomy on top.
- MattDamonSpace 4mo ago
  Not even 4 years old yet. This tech curve has been insane
  - SoftTalker 4mo ago
    Not even the typical lifecycle of a corporate PC or laptop. It is pretty wild.
  - dakolli 4mo ago
    [flagged]
  - rzmmm 4mo ago
    I still use LLM in quite similar way as when ChatGPT was launched. There has been progress but I think the real leap was 2020-2022.
toyetic 4mo ago
This was my exact thought as well. I think mythos could still be a huge leap but especially as IPO's get closer it seems like we're getting closer to the IPhone 10 moment where anything after is just improvements at the edge. But ( maybe because it was hardware ) that took 10ish years while it seems like the slowdown here only took about 4
krupan 4mo ago
This in incredibly refreshing take, thank you. It's about time someone admitted that we aren't on the verge of Singularity with these LLMs. We've probably hit a local AI maxima here and it could be another 10 to 20 years before we am get another big break through.
gaflo 4mo ago
If you upgrade your 8 year old phone the many incremental upgrades will be very noticeable. From my personal experience the LLM space is also moving at a faster pace than the phone industry at the moment, but at least from a financial perspective I would expect it to slow down sooner rather than later.
slashdave 4mo ago
Are we supposed to have two cars?

by pbmango 4mo ago

MangoCoffee 4mo ago

ChatGPT came out in 2022. Back then it was just a chatbot. Now we have AI agents. What matters is how we use them and how the agents get better. That’s what will move AI forward.

zozbot234 4mo ago
An 'AI agent' is just a chatbot that is told to type commands on a REPL-like interface as part of its system prompt. It's still processing pure text-based requests and responses, they're just not restricted to natural language.
- arbitrandomuser 4mo ago
  A lot of people dont know this , also the chatbot (chatgpt) itself is a next token predictor (the GPT) that's been given an initial text that says " pretend to be a chatbot .." and asked to complete it , the coherant chatting behaviour is something thats emergent . later on someone figured if you asked it to output a reasoning before it gave a response its output would have more logical coherence, as though the reasoning output tokens functioned as a scratch space for it to work on. at the end its all next token prediction
  - hellohello2 4mo ago
    No, chatbots are LLMs trained for question-answering through RLHF (its not just a prompt). But yes, if you just zero-shot prompt a bare LLM you can still "talk to it" & you are correct on everything else as far as I know.
  - fragmede 4mo ago
    At lot of people don't know this, also the human brain is a squishy lump of meat. that's been given a childhood and the prompt "act like an adult", and asked to behave. The coherant chatting behaviour is something thats emergent . later on someone figured if you shove Adderall in it and it to think before it speaks, it gave a response its output would have more logical coherence, as though the Adderall concentration drugd functioned as a scratch space for it to work on. in the end its a squishy lump of meat.
    - Alex_L_Wood 4mo ago
      How much must one tie their self-worth to a chatbot to debase themselves like that? To think that a winner in the arms and intelligence race of animal kingdom, a member of the species that made this chatbot, would put down themselves like that in the defense of the thoughtless silicon is absolutely laughable and depressing at the same time.
      - fragmede 4mo ago
        I'm merely pointing out the logical fallacy of thinking complex systems can't arise from simpler components in an obtuse fashion. Ants are stupid individually, yet they're able to create giant structures in the wild. Hating on AI and calling it next word prediction isn't going to save anyone's jobs. Organizing will. Voting will.
    - NateEag 4mo ago
      We know from living as humans that we have experiences. We have no such evidence that LLMs do. That's a pretty significant difference between the next-token predictor and the squishy lump of meat.
- hellohello2 4mo ago
  They are chatbots trained for tool use, its not just a prompt.
- furyofantares 4mo ago
  Yeah and a car is just an engine connected to wheels.
- sigmarule 4mo ago
  An AI agent and a chatbot are both applications built using LLM inference as a primitive.
- smj-edison 4mo ago
  Yeah. LLMs are fundamentally a batch-based system, and we smear a veneer of liveness and autonomy on top.
MattDamonSpace 4mo ago
Not even 4 years old yet. This tech curve has been insane
- SoftTalker 4mo ago
  Not even the typical lifecycle of a corporate PC or laptop. It is pretty wild.
- dakolli 4mo ago
  [flagged]
- rzmmm 4mo ago
  I still use LLM in quite similar way as when ChatGPT was launched. There has been progress but I think the real leap was 2020-2022.

toyetic 4mo ago

This was my exact thought as well. I think mythos could still be a huge leap but especially as IPO's get closer it seems like we're getting closer to the IPhone 10 moment where anything after is just improvements at the edge. But ( maybe because it was hardware ) that took 10ish years while it seems like the slowdown here only took about 4

krupan 4mo ago

This in incredibly refreshing take, thank you. It's about time someone admitted that we aren't on the verge of Singularity with these LLMs. We've probably hit a local AI maxima here and it could be another 10 to 20 years before we am get another big break through.

gaflo 4mo ago

If you upgrade your 8 year old phone the many incremental upgrades will be very noticeable. From my personal experience the LLM space is also moving at a faster pace than the phone industry at the moment, but at least from a financial perspective I would expect it to slow down sooner rather than later.

slashdave 4mo ago

Are we supposed to have two cars?