5 ms·

Sure, but let’s consider the bet the accused took: who is the most searched person in 2025. What benefit is there in knowing this ahead of time? Who is making d

by nezi 4mo ago

Sure, but let’s consider the bet the accused took: who is the most searched person in 2025. What benefit is there in knowing this ahead of time? Who is making decisions based on this?

breppp 4mo ago
If you run a records company I assume this might be worth some money
- vineyardmike 4mo ago
  As opposed to the publicly available Google Trends data? As opposed to running legitimate market research? Wouldn't you rather know the most searched person in your vertical, market, etc? The data in this example was going to be made public anyways. All the examples of prediction markets are predicated on them becoming public. You not only need the info, you need the info before it becomes public.
  - breppp 4mo ago
    > you need the info before it becomes public. and that's exactly how the Google engineer made money, right? He knew it beforehand, and once it was made public other people did too Realtime access to internal Google search data may help you predict a lot of things that might be worth money, for example there's an existing market where companies buy usage estimation for competitors products (not though Google). I don't see why so many people are completely sure this information is worthless
- manarth 4mo ago
  It's not always enough to know what - the why is often important. For example, d4vd is a famous musician, and search stats may indicate his potential popularity and future record sales. Or the public may be searching his name to find out more about the body found in his car, and the subsequent murder investigation and arrest.
  - breppp 4mo ago
    > For example, d4vd is a famous musician, and search stats may indicate his potential popularity and future record sales. I wasn't really aware of that as I guess I am not the target demography. However, I can think of multiple ways of making money off this information, I still don't see why people are so sure it is worthless
wallst07 4mo ago
If you were going to write a article or print a magazine cover , you might want to know this. You could also take the other side to hedge some risk. It's up to them to define the value, not you for them.
jpadkins 4mo ago
The other question you could be asking: Why does Google want to keep this secret for a period of time?
londons_explore 4mo ago
Also, who is taking the other side of these bets? I understand betting on something as a hedge - for example a farmer betting there will be no rain as a way to hedge the failure of his crops. But nobodies life depends which singer is most searched (apart from maybe the singers themselves trying to have a more stable income). Surely that doesn't equate to millions of dollars though.

by nezi 4mo ago

Sure, but let’s consider the bet the accused took: who is the most searched person in 2025. What benefit is there in knowing this ahead of time? Who is making decisions based on this?

breppp 4mo ago

If you run a records company I assume this might be worth some money

vineyardmike 4mo ago
As opposed to the publicly available Google Trends data? As opposed to running legitimate market research? Wouldn't you rather know the most searched person in your vertical, market, etc? The data in this example was going to be made public anyways. All the examples of prediction markets are predicated on them becoming public. You not only need the info, you need the info before it becomes public.
- breppp 4mo ago
  > you need the info before it becomes public. and that's exactly how the Google engineer made money, right? He knew it beforehand, and once it was made public other people did too Realtime access to internal Google search data may help you predict a lot of things that might be worth money, for example there's an existing market where companies buy usage estimation for competitors products (not though Google). I don't see why so many people are completely sure this information is worthless
manarth 4mo ago
It's not always enough to know what - the why is often important. For example, d4vd is a famous musician, and search stats may indicate his potential popularity and future record sales. Or the public may be searching his name to find out more about the body found in his car, and the subsequent murder investigation and arrest.
- breppp 4mo ago
  > For example, d4vd is a famous musician, and search stats may indicate his potential popularity and future record sales. I wasn't really aware of that as I guess I am not the target demography. However, I can think of multiple ways of making money off this information, I still don't see why people are so sure it is worthless

wallst07 4mo ago

If you were going to write a article or print a magazine cover , you might want to know this. You could also take the other side to hedge some risk. It's up to them to define the value, not you for them.

jpadkins 4mo ago

The other question you could be asking: Why does Google want to keep this secret for a period of time?

londons_explore 4mo ago

Also, who is taking the other side of these bets? I understand betting on something as a hedge - for example a farmer betting there will be no rain as a way to hedge the failure of his crops. But nobodies life depends which singer is most searched (apart from maybe the singers themselves trying to have a more stable income). Surely that doesn't equate to millions of dollars though.