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Any country watching Iran situation should take a way a few things: For one khamenei was known to be against nuclear weapons and was a sort of a peace keeper be
by zuzululu 5mo ago
Any country watching Iran situation should take a way a few things: For one khamenei was known to be against nuclear weapons and was a sort of a peace keeper between hardliners leaning towards lifting sanctions but seems to have been forced into a lame duck through narratives inside and outside along with internal leaks. Two, its no longer possible to shut down the internet with Starlink.
Those two were supposed to be backstops against any externally induced regime change. Now any country at odds with United States currently owning nukes is looking at escalating straight to warning shot doctrine. Having enriched uraniums or some land based ICBM is no longer enough. Something tactical and small enough to be used to limit nuclear fallout but make regional allies absolutely against engaging in war at behest of the US seems like it would test US nuclear umbrella.
ex) Any NATO countries willing to have a low yield tactical nuke detonate near their border but inside a disputed territory/land? Which non-nuclear EU country is willing to erase themselves off the map to shield their European brothers?
- taneq 5mo agoRe. point 2: It is if you own Starlink. :S
- mgiampapa 5mo agoThe US Government can own and nationalize it in a heartbeat if they want to. Even other Billionaires hate Musk.
- whatever1 5mo agoI really thought that Russia would use such a device to end the war in Ukraine. Hopefully they will not.
- epistasis 5mo agoIf Ukraine had kept its nuclear weapons it would not have been attacked, but there was never any risk of Russia using nuclear weapons. This is just one of many many ways that people in the west fundamentally misunderstand Russia, and why so many people made fools of themselves thinking that Putin would not invade. The other really big one is that Russia never admitted that it lost the Cold War and thinks the war is still going on, and that it's the fault of the US and others that Russia is so backwards and poor, not a result of their own mismanagement, the weakness of their people, and the general corruption.
- rayiner 5mo ago> and that it's the fault of the US and others that Russia is so backwards and poor Why is Russia so backwards and poor? Russia and Iran are two countries that seem to way underperform their fundamentals.
- p-e-w 5mo agoBrain drain at an unimaginable scale, which is a self-reinforcing mechanism because once it starts, governments will usually impose restrictions to try to stop it, which makes everyone else want to leave too.
- whatever1 5mo agoBecause their institutions are completely corrupt. There are no rules to the game so the powerful take everything. It is a smaller pie but if I can have it all, why do I care? Prosperity correlates with powerful institutions (not necessarily democratic). But ultimately you need a set of rules that even the state has to follow.
- t-3 5mo agoIt's ultimately a cultural issue. Russia never really experienced the liberalization and philosophical transformation of the enlightenment that occurred in Europe, they practiced monstrous feudalism until suddenly transitioning to socialism, which quickly became just as monstrous. Rules without ideology or philosophy are just things to be gamed - exactly as occurs often in those cultures without strong rule-of-law ideologies and societal game-theory countermeasures against corruption and malfeasance. Our politicians would rather twist the laws to make corruption legal than engage in illegal corruption because the drawbacks of illegality are so large. Russian politicians would rather do things extralegally because the system is facade and the real system is one of might makes right so the laws don't apply to them.
- jltsiren 5mo agoWith Russia it's precisely because of their fundamentals. Too much depends on the people in charge, because Russia never developed effective institutions to constrain their leaders. When they have a good leader, they take a step forward, and when they have a bad leader, they take three steps backward. Bad leaders are always more effective, because it's easier to make things worse. Medieval Russia was not too different from the rest of Europe, with all the little monarchies and merchant republics. The period of centralization that followed was also similar. But the accidents of history almost all went the same way. Monarchies defeating merchant republics and free cities. Muscovy being too good at conquering its neighbors, turning Russia into a huge centralized empire with little direct competition. The assassination of Alexander II before he could complete his reforms. The unholy mess of 1917–1922. The idealism of Gorbachev and Yeltsin that turned their reforms into a disaster.
- xiphias2 5mo agoIt would not, but it's clearly not just a war with Ukraine. Europe is sending the jet engines for the drones that are shooting Moscow, and Germany is very actively preparing for war with Russia. It's not the first time in history that this has been done, and Russia still remembers.
- soco 5mo agoThen said Russia could withdraw their multinational troops, stop their international drones, and enjoy peace for the first time in their history. Because Russian drones have European parts as well (and Chinese and and), and the army recruits are not only Russian either.
- xiphias2 5mo agoI think you just implicitly agreed with me that Europe is in proxy war with Russia and it's escalating.
- tim333 5mo agoThe troops are Ukrainian on one side and Russian plus North Korean on the other. The fact both countries have supporters even if only a handful in Russia's case doesn't make them very at war.
- tim333 5mo agoRussia could end the war in Ukraine tomorrow by just going home. They could use nukes as part of their campaign of imperial expansion but they'd get a lot of push back from the rest of the world.
- rayiner 5mo ago> For one khamenei was known to be against nuclear weapons and was a sort of a peace keeper between hardliners I think the Iran war was a dumb idea, but you’re repeating propaganda.[1] Khamenei called the shots in Iran. The country had a nuclear weapons program because he wanted it. Iran isn’t an autocracy in the same way China isn’t an autocracy—the mullahs run the country in the same way as the CCP runs China. But major defense programs don’t happen without the supreme leader’s approval. Khamenei was also a hardliner. Over the last two decades, there have been many moderate candidates for Iran’s presidency. But the Guardian Council banned all of them from running. (The Guardian Council has six members appointed by the Ayatollah, and six appointed by the Chief Justice, who is appointed by the Ayatollah.) [1] I find it interesting people feel the need to make excuses for the Iranian regime. I guess non-interference with a sovereign country’s internal affairs is not, by itself, a very satisfying principle. So there is a desire to make it seem like Iran’s leadership didn’t deserve to get blown up.
- zuzululu 5mo agoalways fascinating to see people throwing around the word propaganda without being remotely concerned with how they appear to others
- aaron695 5mo ago[dead]
- fragmede 5mo agoBoth Russia and Iran have figured out how to jam Starlink.
- tim333 5mo agoStarlink seems to function pretty well in Ukraine.
- fragmede 5mo agoThe kilometers of fiber-optic cable trailing behind Ukrainian drones beg to differ.
- tim333 5mo agoI think they don't use starlink on those because it's too expensive / they don't have a enough. A roll of fiber is cheaper on a suicide drone.
- fragmede 5mo agoI'm too far removed so I'm sure all the news I read is propaganda, but from first principles, you're on your front doorstop, and your nearest neighbor is 50km away, and you're shining a light back and forth to communicate with them. Your position is that there's no way some asshole can drive around with a truck with their headlights on and mess things up for you?
- tim333 5mo agoI don't have a position on that but both sides have used tens of thousands on the things. The range is usually < 50km.