3 ms·

> The iceberg the rest of the world is about to hit in the coming month or two is strategic reserves of crude oil as well as refined petroleum products (eg jet

> The iceberg the rest of the world is about to hit in the coming month or two is strategic reserves of crude oil as well as refined petroleum products (eg jet fuel, gasoline, diesel) being drained. It's not clear to me that the "world" will come down on Iran's side on this one. On the one hand you have a country that is perpetrating a violation of international norms by establishing a toll on the straight of hormuz and is shooting at or is threatening to shoot at the "world"'s ships, on the other hand you have a country that violated international norms by invading another country (ho hum, everyone does this) but isn't shooting at or threatening to shoot at your ships (mostly just iranian or dark ships). When the oil reserves run out, do you side with the bad guys that are making a token effort at helping to get oil to you, or do you side with the bad guys that are preventing oil from getting to you just to middle finger trump?

t-3 5mo ago
> ho hum, everyone does this No, just US, Israel, and Russia.
- dnautics 5mo ago
  china has recently invaded bhutan and the Philippines -- not to mention historically vietnam, north korea, and tibet, saudi arabia and uae (directly https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/saudi-arabia-launched-covert-attacks-iran-regional-war-widened-sources-2026-05-12/ https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/saudi-arabia-laun...) participated in the attack on iran too, eritrea, ethiopia, sudan, congo, niger, Venezuela threatened guyana, Ukraine (understandably) invaded russia, though that turned out to be mostly pointless, armenia, azerbaijan...
  - t-3 5mo ago
    > china has recently invaded [...] the Philippines Uh, when? I couldn't find any information suggesting that such a thing happened. Fishing rights and other minor maritime disputes don't make an invasion.
jmyeet 5mo ago
The world already has come down on Iran's side. It's pretty much the US and Israel (and maybe the UAE) against the world. Trump has bemoaned the lack of international support. Use of bases and airpsace have been spotty. And this is only going to get worse once winter hits in Europe and people start seeing their electricity and heating bills. Asia (minus China and Japan) are the most vulnerable because they're almost entirely dependent on Gulf oil that has stopped. And they blame the US for it. Iran has allowed traffic through the Strait to countries that aren't aiding the war effort. It's now the US that is blocking it. Americans as a whole don't understand the history of the region or know about all the sins the US has committed against Iran over a century, including being responsible for the current regime, overthrowing their democratically elected government in 1953 and stole their oil. They also propped up the Iran-Iraq war and destabilized Afghanistan to flood Iran with heroin. There was a perfectly good deal with Iran called the JCPOA but Trump tore it out because it had Obama's name on it and Israel hated it. Everything that has happened since is Trump's (and Biden's) fault. Iran is defending itself against an unprovoked attack by the biggest bully on the planet. The tolls are e complex issue because the navigable lanes through the Strait of Hormuz go through, in part, Iranian territorial waters. There were no tolls. The us started an unprovoked war, caused countless deaths, blew up a school through of girls and assassinated a bunch of leaders. So the tolls are viewed by many as, well, reparations. Iran never closed the Strait or enforced a toll prior to this war. Iran also acted in good faith last year after yet another unprovoked attack (ie the 12 day war) that was ultimately called off because the US and Israel were losing the ability to intercept Iranian missiles. Why? Critically depelted munitions. And what did the US do? turned around and made another unprovoked, surprise attack rather than negotiating. Because Israel told them to. So Iran has been forced into the position that they need to make the economic damage of this so high that the US and Israel never think about doing this again. And if you can't see why they might do that, consider what the US did after 9/11.
- deleted 5mo ago
  [deleted]
- dnautics 5mo ago
  we shall see you see, the problem is this "unprovoked attack by the biggest bully on the planet" framing requires some sense of "international order" but thats a myth, always has been, and, now its being seen for what it is. in that world iran doesn't do so well, especially since the claims it makes (controlling the hormuz) depend on rejecting the international order. you cant have your cake and eat it too. im not saying its right or wrong, I'm saying it is what will be. countries will revert to self interest, and a hormuz controlled by iran is in no one's interest. well maybe it will be good for the environment, since co2 emissions will go down.

t-3 5mo ago

> ho hum, everyone does this No, just US, Israel, and Russia.

dnautics 5mo ago
china has recently invaded bhutan and the Philippines -- not to mention historically vietnam, north korea, and tibet, saudi arabia and uae (directly https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/saudi-arabia-launched-covert-attacks-iran-regional-war-widened-sources-2026-05-12/ https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/saudi-arabia-laun...) participated in the attack on iran too, eritrea, ethiopia, sudan, congo, niger, Venezuela threatened guyana, Ukraine (understandably) invaded russia, though that turned out to be mostly pointless, armenia, azerbaijan...
- t-3 5mo ago
  > china has recently invaded [...] the Philippines Uh, when? I couldn't find any information suggesting that such a thing happened. Fishing rights and other minor maritime disputes don't make an invasion.

jmyeet 5mo ago

The world already has come down on Iran's side. It's pretty much the US and Israel (and maybe the UAE) against the world. Trump has bemoaned the lack of international support. Use of bases and airpsace have been spotty. And this is only going to get worse once winter hits in Europe and people start seeing their electricity and heating bills. Asia (minus China and Japan) are the most vulnerable because they're almost entirely dependent on Gulf oil that has stopped. And they blame the US for it. Iran has allowed traffic through the Strait to countries that aren't aiding the war effort. It's now the US that is blocking it. Americans as a whole don't understand the history of the region or know about all the sins the US has committed against Iran over a century, including being responsible for the current regime, overthrowing their democratically elected government in 1953 and stole their oil. They also propped up the Iran-Iraq war and destabilized Afghanistan to flood Iran with heroin. There was a perfectly good deal with Iran called the JCPOA but Trump tore it out because it had Obama's name on it and Israel hated it. Everything that has happened since is Trump's (and Biden's) fault. Iran is defending itself against an unprovoked attack by the biggest bully on the planet. The tolls are e complex issue because the navigable lanes through the Strait of Hormuz go through, in part, Iranian territorial waters. There were no tolls. The us started an unprovoked war, caused countless deaths, blew up a school through of girls and assassinated a bunch of leaders. So the tolls are viewed by many as, well, reparations. Iran never closed the Strait or enforced a toll prior to this war. Iran also acted in good faith last year after yet another unprovoked attack (ie the 12 day war) that was ultimately called off because the US and Israel were losing the ability to intercept Iranian missiles. Why? Critically depelted munitions. And what did the US do? turned around and made another unprovoked, surprise attack rather than negotiating. Because Israel told them to. So Iran has been forced into the position that they need to make the economic damage of this so high that the US and Israel never think about doing this again. And if you can't see why they might do that, consider what the US did after 9/11.

deleted 5mo ago
[deleted]
dnautics 5mo ago
we shall see you see, the problem is this "unprovoked attack by the biggest bully on the planet" framing requires some sense of "international order" but thats a myth, always has been, and, now its being seen for what it is. in that world iran doesn't do so well, especially since the claims it makes (controlling the hormuz) depend on rejecting the international order. you cant have your cake and eat it too. im not saying its right or wrong, I'm saying it is what will be. countries will revert to self interest, and a hormuz controlled by iran is in no one's interest. well maybe it will be good for the environment, since co2 emissions will go down.