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The weird thing is: Iran seems to be acting like the war is ending, and that their peace plan has been accepted, and yet now it's the Trump administration that

The weird thing is: Iran seems to be acting like the war is ending, and that their peace plan has been accepted, and yet now it's the Trump administration that says it's all fake news. In the past the Trump administration has claimed the war was ending and Iran said (truthfully) it's all fake news. It makes me wonder if something has shifted with the internal power dynamics in Iran, and the civilian government at least is worried about being ousted if this continues. The usual reason why you would lie about peace being around the corner is to placate the citizenry and prevent them from revolting. Also relatedly, Trump is now doubling down on U.S. demands and threats of more military action. This is what you do if you sense your opponent is weak. Does U.S. intelligence know something we don't?

Forgeties79 5mo ago
> Also relatedly, Trump is now doubling down on U.S. demands and threats of more military action. This is what you do if you sense your opponent is weak. Does U.S. intelligence know something we don't? Hasn’t he done this every week since it started? He constantly bounces between “we’ve almost got a great deal” and “we are going to ABSOLUTELY OBLITERATE IRAN1!!!1!”
cjbgkagh 5mo ago
There are many reasons to lie about peace being around the corner, it is the default norm. It is in part to place the blame of further conflicts on your enemies, i.e. I wanted peace but clearly they did not. There is a conflict of narratives and one way to help push your narrative is to act like it is the reality on the ground. Unless the US is going to send in a ground army or nuke Iran then all we have at the moment is a pointless stalemate and the longer this goes on the more people will be upset at Trump and Israel for creating this situation.
twothreeone 5mo ago
Isn't it also possible that this happened to be one of the explicit pre-conditions for a treaty by the US?
- nostrademons 5mo ago
  It could be a trust-building move, open up a little and see if it's reciprocated, although if it's a trust-building move the right response is probably not to threaten to obliterate them, or to launch more military strikes. Although this conflict has seen both sides consistently choose the wrong response in basically every situation, which is why it's still going on.
  - twothreeone 5mo ago
    Yeah, it's not even clear what the true motivation is from the US side.. "get the Uranium out" by itself doesn't make sense, because (a) they can just enrich again (or even be supplied directly by Russia/NK) and (b) even if they build nukes they'll never be able to reach US territory. If they wanted to destabilize the regime, they would have needed to actively push an alternative group or leader. If they wanted to pressure China/EU by stressing global markets, I'd say it was mildly successful - though incredibly short term.. I suppose it may be a mix of all of those (and maybe more). But I'm lost as to what the overall goal and strategy is here, it feels extremely haphazard.
    - the_af 5mo ago
      Everyone is lost about what exactly was the US strategy here. Everybody understands Iran wasn't a threat to the US that warranted immediate action. Mostly everyone understands the aftermath of this war looks to be worse than the previous situation.
      - drnick1 5mo ago
        > Everyone is lost about what exactly was the US strategy here. The strategy is clear: out Iran as a paper tiger (accomplished last year), disarm the mullahs by sinking their boats and destroying the few aircrafts they had left, and humiliate the regime so that an uprising becomes more likely. Same strategy that has already realigned Syria and Venezuela with U.S. interests, and that will soon take Cuba too. I don't think that anything should be negotiated at this stage. Return to combat operations, destroy Iran's ability to threaten traffic through the Strait, escort the ships that are currently trapped in the Gulf, and maintain the blockade on Iranian ports.
deleted 5mo ago
[deleted]
protocolture 5mo ago
>Trump is now doubling down on U.S. demands and threats of more military action. He does this every day even if hes not at war. He threatens to nuke canada and destroy the EU. You literally can never take him seriously.
- Gigachad 5mo ago
  The prime example of the boy who cried wolf.
jmyeet 5mo ago
No, Iran is acting like time is on their side. Because it is. The iceberg the rest of the world is about to hit in the coming month or two is strategic reserves of crude oil as well as refined petroleum products (eg jet fuel, gasoline, diesel) being drained. That's going to be a whole new level of suffering. Trump is doubling down on Israel's demands. That's the true stumbling block here. Israel wanted this war. They still do. Israel thinks they can turn Iran into a failed-state like Somalia. Trump is also the least reliable indicator of what's going to happen becausee, as we all hopefully know by now, he just rants stream-of-consciousness like. The Joint Chiefs, the intelligence community and allies all knew this was doomed to failure. Closing the Strait of Hormuz has been historically modeled in terms of military exercises and capability for decades. It was unproven prior to this war if the US could reopen the Strait. Well, now we know. Congratulations, everybody, the system works. I don't know what increased Internet traffic from Iran means. As was proven last year though, Israel used that access for intelligence and assassination purposes (ie to identify target locations, particularly through the large number of of Afghan refugees that were in the country at the time, allegedly [1]). There is no grand strategy. There are no cards left to play by the US short of the use of nuclear weapons. I mean that literally. The uS has lost but unwillingness to break with Israel has stopped the administration from admitting it publicly. [1]: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckglp8epg11o https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckglp8epg11o
- bluegatty 5mo ago
  Time is on their side - except for the embargo. That stops 90% of their revenue and that's a very real thing. It's interesting to see how far they think they can get away with this, but they are not in an easy situation. Soldiers and civil infrastructure don't last on $0. That money stops is the 'most likely thing' that will cause a real revolution. Both sides are hoping for 'regime change' by embargo it seems!
  - jmyeet 5mo ago
    Sanctions don't work on enemies. We've had what? 4 years of sanctions on Russia now? How's that going? Iran has had over 40 years of almost uninterrupted sanctions. How was that going? North Korea? Sanctions force an enemy to build an economy to withstand those sanctions. This is easier when you can grow food, have water and have energy. Also, they've built their entire military to resist the one card you can play: strategic bombardment. Cheap missiles, super-cheap drones, both easy to produce and launch and underground facilities that are largely immune to bombing. Strategic oil reserves are getting perilously low [1] and everybody understands that Trump would rather let the world burn than restrain Israel in the slightest. [1]: https://archive.ph/lWiwl https://archive.ph/lWiwl
bluegatty 5mo ago
No, the regime has been very publicly saying 'there is no deal', more so than US Admin who keeps hinting 'a deal' or 'imminent' or '95% of the way there'. "Trump is now doubling down on U.S. demands and threats of more military action. " No - he's been backing down over and over for weeks. There limited strikes today. The US Admin is wary of escalation, Tehran knows it (or seems to be acting as though they believe that) and are dragging this along.
dools 5mo ago
> Does U.S. intelligence know something we don't? Well, yes probably.
NordStreamYacht 5mo ago
> Does U.S. intelligence know something we don't? Unlikely. They thought a dose of shock and awe would get people out on the streets for a rapid regime change and it didn't work.
- hypeatei 5mo ago
  I don't think U.S. intelligence thought any part of this war was a good idea or justified. There were two National Intelligence Estimates (a panel of all 18 agencies in the IC) that concluded Iran was not developing nuclear weapons. There has also been reporting that a top general in the Joint Chiefs of Staff warned Trump about starting a conflict with Iran[0]. The only party that believes, or wants others to believe that Iran is a huge threat, is Israel. 0: https://www.axios.com/2026/02/23/iran-strike-trump-gen-dan-caine-vance-rubio https://www.axios.com/2026/02/23/iran-strike-trump-gen-dan-c...
  - NordStreamYacht 5mo ago
    So the only reasons to attack Iran where 1. Trump had a bee in his bonnet since the 80s 2. Iran has oil 3. Israel willed it 4. Disrupt global energy markets 5. All of the above
esseph 5mo ago
> Also relatedly, Trump is now doubling down on U.S. demands and threats of more military action. This is what you do if you sense your opponent is weak. It's really the opposite. Trump is grasping at anything he can use as leverage in a deal he doesn't seem to be able to close.
tim333 5mo ago
The Iranians are probably good with the status quo - Trump blustering while blocking Hormuz causes escalating shortages and the November elections pressure Trump.
licebmi__at__ 5mo ago
You could also give credence to the reporting that US/Trump has messaged to Iran that they should ignore Trump declarations as they are intended for internal audiences. During the rest of the conflict Trump has doubled down on threats, I mean "a civilization will die tonight" is not peacefully. I wouldn't doubt that Trump might believe Iran is weak, but I also think is more than proved that US wartime messaging is mostly directed internally to keep people dumb.

Forgeties79 5mo ago

> Also relatedly, Trump is now doubling down on U.S. demands and threats of more military action. This is what you do if you sense your opponent is weak. Does U.S. intelligence know something we don't? Hasn’t he done this every week since it started? He constantly bounces between “we’ve almost got a great deal” and “we are going to ABSOLUTELY OBLITERATE IRAN1!!!1!”

cjbgkagh 5mo ago

There are many reasons to lie about peace being around the corner, it is the default norm. It is in part to place the blame of further conflicts on your enemies, i.e. I wanted peace but clearly they did not. There is a conflict of narratives and one way to help push your narrative is to act like it is the reality on the ground. Unless the US is going to send in a ground army or nuke Iran then all we have at the moment is a pointless stalemate and the longer this goes on the more people will be upset at Trump and Israel for creating this situation.

twothreeone 5mo ago

Isn't it also possible that this happened to be one of the explicit pre-conditions for a treaty by the US?

nostrademons 5mo ago
It could be a trust-building move, open up a little and see if it's reciprocated, although if it's a trust-building move the right response is probably not to threaten to obliterate them, or to launch more military strikes. Although this conflict has seen both sides consistently choose the wrong response in basically every situation, which is why it's still going on.
- twothreeone 5mo ago
  Yeah, it's not even clear what the true motivation is from the US side.. "get the Uranium out" by itself doesn't make sense, because (a) they can just enrich again (or even be supplied directly by Russia/NK) and (b) even if they build nukes they'll never be able to reach US territory. If they wanted to destabilize the regime, they would have needed to actively push an alternative group or leader. If they wanted to pressure China/EU by stressing global markets, I'd say it was mildly successful - though incredibly short term.. I suppose it may be a mix of all of those (and maybe more). But I'm lost as to what the overall goal and strategy is here, it feels extremely haphazard.
  - the_af 5mo ago
    Everyone is lost about what exactly was the US strategy here. Everybody understands Iran wasn't a threat to the US that warranted immediate action. Mostly everyone understands the aftermath of this war looks to be worse than the previous situation.
    - drnick1 5mo ago
      > Everyone is lost about what exactly was the US strategy here. The strategy is clear: out Iran as a paper tiger (accomplished last year), disarm the mullahs by sinking their boats and destroying the few aircrafts they had left, and humiliate the regime so that an uprising becomes more likely. Same strategy that has already realigned Syria and Venezuela with U.S. interests, and that will soon take Cuba too. I don't think that anything should be negotiated at this stage. Return to combat operations, destroy Iran's ability to threaten traffic through the Strait, escort the ships that are currently trapped in the Gulf, and maintain the blockade on Iranian ports.

deleted 5mo ago

[deleted]

protocolture 5mo ago

>Trump is now doubling down on U.S. demands and threats of more military action. He does this every day even if hes not at war. He threatens to nuke canada and destroy the EU. You literally can never take him seriously.

Gigachad 5mo ago
The prime example of the boy who cried wolf.

jmyeet 5mo ago

No, Iran is acting like time is on their side. Because it is. The iceberg the rest of the world is about to hit in the coming month or two is strategic reserves of crude oil as well as refined petroleum products (eg jet fuel, gasoline, diesel) being drained. That's going to be a whole new level of suffering. Trump is doubling down on Israel's demands. That's the true stumbling block here. Israel wanted this war. They still do. Israel thinks they can turn Iran into a failed-state like Somalia. Trump is also the least reliable indicator of what's going to happen becausee, as we all hopefully know by now, he just rants stream-of-consciousness like. The Joint Chiefs, the intelligence community and allies all knew this was doomed to failure. Closing the Strait of Hormuz has been historically modeled in terms of military exercises and capability for decades. It was unproven prior to this war if the US could reopen the Strait. Well, now we know. Congratulations, everybody, the system works. I don't know what increased Internet traffic from Iran means. As was proven last year though, Israel used that access for intelligence and assassination purposes (ie to identify target locations, particularly through the large number of of Afghan refugees that were in the country at the time, allegedly [1]). There is no grand strategy. There are no cards left to play by the US short of the use of nuclear weapons. I mean that literally. The uS has lost but unwillingness to break with Israel has stopped the administration from admitting it publicly. [1]: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckglp8epg11o https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckglp8epg11o

bluegatty 5mo ago
Time is on their side - except for the embargo. That stops 90% of their revenue and that's a very real thing. It's interesting to see how far they think they can get away with this, but they are not in an easy situation. Soldiers and civil infrastructure don't last on $0. That money stops is the 'most likely thing' that will cause a real revolution. Both sides are hoping for 'regime change' by embargo it seems!
- jmyeet 5mo ago
  Sanctions don't work on enemies. We've had what? 4 years of sanctions on Russia now? How's that going? Iran has had over 40 years of almost uninterrupted sanctions. How was that going? North Korea? Sanctions force an enemy to build an economy to withstand those sanctions. This is easier when you can grow food, have water and have energy. Also, they've built their entire military to resist the one card you can play: strategic bombardment. Cheap missiles, super-cheap drones, both easy to produce and launch and underground facilities that are largely immune to bombing. Strategic oil reserves are getting perilously low [1] and everybody understands that Trump would rather let the world burn than restrain Israel in the slightest. [1]: https://archive.ph/lWiwl https://archive.ph/lWiwl

bluegatty 5mo ago

No, the regime has been very publicly saying 'there is no deal', more so than US Admin who keeps hinting 'a deal' or 'imminent' or '95% of the way there'. "Trump is now doubling down on U.S. demands and threats of more military action. " No - he's been backing down over and over for weeks. There limited strikes today. The US Admin is wary of escalation, Tehran knows it (or seems to be acting as though they believe that) and are dragging this along.

dools 5mo ago

> Does U.S. intelligence know something we don't? Well, yes probably.

NordStreamYacht 5mo ago

> Does U.S. intelligence know something we don't? Unlikely. They thought a dose of shock and awe would get people out on the streets for a rapid regime change and it didn't work.

hypeatei 5mo ago
I don't think U.S. intelligence thought any part of this war was a good idea or justified. There were two National Intelligence Estimates (a panel of all 18 agencies in the IC) that concluded Iran was not developing nuclear weapons. There has also been reporting that a top general in the Joint Chiefs of Staff warned Trump about starting a conflict with Iran[0]. The only party that believes, or wants others to believe that Iran is a huge threat, is Israel. 0: https://www.axios.com/2026/02/23/iran-strike-trump-gen-dan-caine-vance-rubio https://www.axios.com/2026/02/23/iran-strike-trump-gen-dan-c...
- NordStreamYacht 5mo ago
  So the only reasons to attack Iran where 1. Trump had a bee in his bonnet since the 80s 2. Iran has oil 3. Israel willed it 4. Disrupt global energy markets 5. All of the above

esseph 5mo ago

> Also relatedly, Trump is now doubling down on U.S. demands and threats of more military action. This is what you do if you sense your opponent is weak. It's really the opposite. Trump is grasping at anything he can use as leverage in a deal he doesn't seem to be able to close.

tim333 5mo ago

The Iranians are probably good with the status quo - Trump blustering while blocking Hormuz causes escalating shortages and the November elections pressure Trump.

licebmi__at__ 5mo ago

You could also give credence to the reporting that US/Trump has messaged to Iran that they should ignore Trump declarations as they are intended for internal audiences. During the rest of the conflict Trump has doubled down on threats, I mean "a civilization will die tonight" is not peacefully. I wouldn't doubt that Trump might believe Iran is weak, but I also think is more than proved that US wartime messaging is mostly directed internally to keep people dumb.