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I work in big tech and probably 90% of code over the last month has been written by AI. And I suspect it's probably higher within Anthropic, which is probably w
by supern0va 5mo ago
I work in big tech and probably 90% of code over the last month has been written by AI. And I suspect it's probably higher within Anthropic, which is probably what he's basing his opinion on.
So, he's closer to correct than not.
That said, your recollection is also flawed. It was in mid-March, and here's the relevant quotes:
>I think we’ll be there in three to six months—where AI is writing 90 percent of the code. And then in twelve months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code.
[...]
>But the programmer still needs to specify, you know, what are—what are the conditions of what you’re doing, what—you know, what is the overall app you’re trying to make, what’s the overall design decision? How do we collaborate with other code that’s been written? You know, how do we have some common sense on whether this is a secure design or an insecure design?
[...]
>So as long as there are these small pieces that a programmer, a human programmer, needs to do, the AI isn’t good at, I think human productivity will actually be enhanced. But on the other hand, I think that eventually all those little islands will get picked off by AI systems.
With another 3-4 months left on the clock, his prediction seems remarkably on point for at least certain organizations and domains.
I welcome you to also hold yourself accountable in the coming months if this trend continues. ;)
- hansmayer 5mo ago> I welcome you to also hold yourself accountable in the coming months if this trend continues. ;) My company did not swallow hundreds of billions in shady investment deals and is not publicly traded. We work with real money, and the revenue on our books is the revenue that is actually booked, not fake revenue we plan in 2 years time to maybe happen. So no, I am not going to hold myself accountable. But people who work with other people's money should be absolutely held accountable when their wild imaginations don't come true, repeatedly, quarter after quarter, year after year!
- aspenmartin 5mo agoI think he means hold yourself accountable when it turns out your predictions and pessimism don't age well.
- hansmayer 5mo agoMate, for 5 years I've been hearing that crap. I am not predicting anything / on the contrary the AI boosting bunch is. When are your predictions coming true?
- aspenmartin 5mo agoWhat predictions, sorry?
- supern0va 5mo agoAFAIK, most predictions from several years ago were for...approximately now to within the next few years. Can you be more specific? You criticized a very specific (and fake/misquoted) prediction, ignored the correction, and are now criticizing vague hand-wavey "predictions" that you have left unspecified. Can you please stop with the angry/ranty replies and actually have a real conversation grounded in actual facts? Now, having said all of the above...I'll also point out that these are predictions, not promises/guarantees. These people are being asked to forecast and are doing so. I hardly think they should be held responsible for not being literal oracles, but even so--please, at least quote them correctly/at all. In short: be better than the hallucinations you're seen to call out from the models.
- supern0va 5mo agoI will note that you have essentially not responded to anything specific in my comment, nor at least acknowledged that you misstated Dario Amodei's actual prediction.
- m1coti 5mo agoWritten, but was it reviewed? Do you need to edit code written by LLM? I agree that most of the things are written by AI but writting code was never the bottleneck in big tech.
- hansmayer 5mo agoHaven't you heard - these days they just throw slop generated by LLM agents over to other LLM agents which cosplay as internal QA. They know it works because they write really strict .MD files where they instruct agents in English language to 'never do this' and 'always do that'.
- aspenmartin 5mo agoThis is really what you think happens at large tech companies? You don't think it's possible this is maybe even slightly overly simplifying what the relevant processes are?
- hansmayer 5mo agoRead the other comment in the thread. Your buddy literally confirmed exactly what I wrote.
- aspenmartin 5mo agoComment does indicate you don’t really seek to know how things work with respect to this and seem to not be able to imagine that the Occam’s razor is: agents are more useful than you think they are.
- supern0va 5mo ago>Read the other comment in the thread. Your buddy literally confirmed exactly what I wrote. Please engage in good faith. I commented that humans are the final step of the review process.
- supern0va 5mo ago
- pier25 5mo ago> And I suspect it's probably higher within Anthropic That probably explains why their uptime and reliability are so bad.