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You're suggesting that 1 in 8 people worldwide, including every one from infants and the elderly, are knowledge workers. Are you sure that's what you mean? I'm

You're suggesting that 1 in 8 people worldwide, including every one from infants and the elderly, are knowledge workers. Are you sure that's what you mean? I'm not even sure that 1 in 8 people I know would qualify as a knowledge worker, let alone a knowledge worker that might profoundly benefit from on-the-horizon AI. And I'm in a highly skewed population.

HDThoreaun 4mo ago
Well around 40% of people work. I dont think its crazy to say around a third of jobs are knowledge jobs, but what do I know
- matthewowen 4mo ago
  85% of the world population lives outside of developed nations. 27% of the world's workforce is in agriculture (contrast to the US where it is 1-2%). 15% in manufacturing. A lot of people work in "services" (especially in high income nations, where it's roughly three quarters) and some of those are knowledge workers... but a huge number of them are nail technicians or hairdressers or bartenders (etc etc).
WarmWash 4mo ago
I think the underestimation is how many people want a personal knowledge worker in their pocket, and are willing to pay ~$65/mo for it.
- swatcoder 4mo ago
  Personally, I've only encountered any of those people on line, and almost exclusively here on HN. Most people I've met -- and again, in a pretty darn skewed sample globally -- see $65/mo as a lot of money to spend on technology of any kind and can't think of anything much they need from "a personal knowledge worker in their pocket". I don't know a single person in real life who remains excited about AI at all, and only a few software engineers who feel it'd be worth that much. Everybody seems to be mostly confident with the "knowledge productivity" in their personal and professional life and a pretty skittish about spending in today's economy. Most would be excited about a magic new robot that affordably saved them from unwanted physical labor and drudgery, but nobody needs much real help making appointments or filling out forms or whatever. That's not to say I won't be proved wrong some day, with some further innovations in AI products, but global-scale demand isn't waiting for anything that's been released so far.
- gloryjulio 4mo ago
  The competitors of $65/mo subscriptions are the free models and services that are good enough. It will only get worse as open models or free tiers catch up. For most people, they just use whatever that's free
  - Danox 4mo ago
    Apple TV, Netflix, BritBox and PBS add up to about $45 a month. Most people are gonna judge AI up against what they’re already paying for and the AI model makers simply don’t have a good enough product. There’s only two things useful to the average person something to help them translate and something to help them write in everyday life. Something else that might be useful would be local single purpose AI agents who’s remit is to help you with one specific task, but I don’t think that’s what the people building those expensive data centers want to sell to the market.
    - gloryjulio 4mo ago
      > Apple TV, Netflix, BritBox and PBS add up to about $45 a month. Most people are gonna judge AI up against what they’re already paying for and the AI model makers simply don’t have a good enough product. What's the actual TAM for premium tv subscriptions though? Unlike free models which are keep improving, you can't get premium tv for free. Also they are actually competing with the total subscription price a person is willing to pay for a year. > There’s only two things useful to the average person something to help them translate and something to help them write in everyday life. Exactly, free models are good enough for these tasks. I just don't see how b2c is a large enough market to ask average Joe to cough up hundreds per year when there are free stuff everywhere. B2b is another story
- overgard 4mo ago
  I've yet to meet a person that fits that description IRL. Admittedly I don't live in the valley but I do work in tech. The only place I see that demand is on hacker news (and I imagine twitter - I'm not on it).

HDThoreaun 4mo ago

Well around 40% of people work. I dont think its crazy to say around a third of jobs are knowledge jobs, but what do I know

matthewowen 4mo ago
85% of the world population lives outside of developed nations. 27% of the world's workforce is in agriculture (contrast to the US where it is 1-2%). 15% in manufacturing. A lot of people work in "services" (especially in high income nations, where it's roughly three quarters) and some of those are knowledge workers... but a huge number of them are nail technicians or hairdressers or bartenders (etc etc).

WarmWash 4mo ago

I think the underestimation is how many people want a personal knowledge worker in their pocket, and are willing to pay ~$65/mo for it.

swatcoder 4mo ago
Personally, I've only encountered any of those people on line, and almost exclusively here on HN. Most people I've met -- and again, in a pretty darn skewed sample globally -- see $65/mo as a lot of money to spend on technology of any kind and can't think of anything much they need from "a personal knowledge worker in their pocket". I don't know a single person in real life who remains excited about AI at all, and only a few software engineers who feel it'd be worth that much. Everybody seems to be mostly confident with the "knowledge productivity" in their personal and professional life and a pretty skittish about spending in today's economy. Most would be excited about a magic new robot that affordably saved them from unwanted physical labor and drudgery, but nobody needs much real help making appointments or filling out forms or whatever. That's not to say I won't be proved wrong some day, with some further innovations in AI products, but global-scale demand isn't waiting for anything that's been released so far.
gloryjulio 4mo ago
The competitors of $65/mo subscriptions are the free models and services that are good enough. It will only get worse as open models or free tiers catch up. For most people, they just use whatever that's free
- Danox 4mo ago
  Apple TV, Netflix, BritBox and PBS add up to about $45 a month. Most people are gonna judge AI up against what they’re already paying for and the AI model makers simply don’t have a good enough product. There’s only two things useful to the average person something to help them translate and something to help them write in everyday life. Something else that might be useful would be local single purpose AI agents who’s remit is to help you with one specific task, but I don’t think that’s what the people building those expensive data centers want to sell to the market.
  - gloryjulio 4mo ago
    > Apple TV, Netflix, BritBox and PBS add up to about $45 a month. Most people are gonna judge AI up against what they’re already paying for and the AI model makers simply don’t have a good enough product. What's the actual TAM for premium tv subscriptions though? Unlike free models which are keep improving, you can't get premium tv for free. Also they are actually competing with the total subscription price a person is willing to pay for a year. > There’s only two things useful to the average person something to help them translate and something to help them write in everyday life. Exactly, free models are good enough for these tasks. I just don't see how b2c is a large enough market to ask average Joe to cough up hundreds per year when there are free stuff everywhere. B2b is another story
overgard 4mo ago
I've yet to meet a person that fits that description IRL. Admittedly I don't live in the valley but I do work in tech. The only place I see that demand is on hacker news (and I imagine twitter - I'm not on it).