3 ms·
There is also the EV (expected value) of developing AGI. Even if you personally believe the probability is low within the lifetime of either of these companies,
by sowbug 4mo ago
There is also the EV (expected value) of developing AGI. Even if you personally believe the probability is low within the lifetime of either of these companies, the value would still be extraordinarily high, enough to forgive a $5T or so miscalculation here or there.
- zero_shift 4mo agoI don't think AGI was ever a serious endeavour, just something the labs talked up to grab attention. I am willing to bet a Twix we'll look back on that stuff in 2 years with a lot of embarrassment
- sowbug 4mo agoThe high-risk side of that bet would need to win more like a lifetime supply of Twix. But in a post-scarcity nirvana, everyone already has that. So sure, you're on at even money. See you in two years.
- deaton 4mo agoTheres no reason to believe, based on recent trends, that AI would lead us to a post-scarcity world, even if it could do all of our jobs better and cheaper.
- sowbug 4mo agoI'll wager a hypersled of my Twix against your next three rations of gruel. But I think I'm done betting after this one.
- dgellow 4mo agoOnly if running AGI makes economic sense. We actually have no idea if that’s the case. We don’t even have a definition for AGI