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Some of the prediction markets explicitly forbid payouts based on death. E.g., Kalshi refused to pay out "leaves office" when Khamenei was killed.
by loeg 5mo ago
Some of the prediction markets explicitly forbid payouts based on death. E.g., Kalshi refused to pay out "leaves office" when Khamenei was killed.
- munk-a 5mo agoThere are a lot of things short of death that we don't want to encourage either. There is a huge grey zone here that I frankly don't want to entrust to private entities.
- loeg 5mo agoSure, I'm not a fan of prediction markets in general either. Just responding to GP's specific claim about death incentives.
- gpm 5mo ago> Kalshi refused to pay out To be clear they had explicitly written in the contract from the start that death didn't count. And they paid out the full amount - just not to the same betters they would have if he had left office alive.