3 ms·

What fair market price are you talking about? The price decided by the prediction market?

• zeroonetwothree 5mo ago
  If you compare prediction market implied odds to the actual odds that ended up they match very closely
  • buellerbueller 5mo ago
    what are these "actual odds" and if you have the time machine that lets you observe the necessary outcomes to calculate them, why are you bothering with making money on betting markets?
    • PowerElectronix 5mo ago
      The "actual odds" is that if you get, say, 100 bets that were at 10% yes when the bet was resolved, you'll see that around 10% closed yes and 90% closed No.
  • antiframe 5mo ago
    Do you have an example?