6 ms·

Very close already. Death threats went to this journalist; seems someone bet on missile hits. https://factkeepers.com/polymarket-gamblers-vow-to-kill-journalist

by imglorp 5mo ago

Very close already. Death threats went to this journalist; seems someone bet on missile hits. https://factkeepers.com/polymarket-gamblers-vow-to-kill-journalist-unless-he-changes-iran-war-report-to-help-them-win-a-bet/ https://factkeepers.com/polymarket-gamblers-vow-to-kill-jour... It also incentivizes leaks from insiders, sometimes endangering others. A soldier was charged for betting on a military operation. https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/us-soldier-charged-using-classified-information-profit-prediction-market-bets https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/us-soldier-charged-using-clas... And of course throwing pro sports, but that's been happening for ages. Sports has always been crooked: eg the Eupolus Scandal from 388 BCE.

mithras 5mo ago
I thought this one was the most interesting: ‘Hairdryer or lighter?’: French police look at claim of sensor tampering to win weather bets https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/23/hairdryer-or-lighter-french-police-look-at-claim-of-sensor-tampering-to-win-weather-bets https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/23/hairdryer-or-l...
- mschuster91 5mo ago
  Whoever did that deserves a few years in prison. Normally I'm not too much of a friend of draconian BS - but accurate reports of temperature, air pressure and wind speed are incredibly important for the safety of air travel. It's bad enough when such systems fail due to whatever sort of issue, but the last thing aviation needs is people intentionally blowing holes into the swiss cheese security model -.-
  - Eduard 5mo ago
    Also bad if such crucial information is based on a single sensor with barely any physical security
    - bell-cot 5mo ago
      If you need serious physical security for every little bit of infrastructure, then your society will be able to afford far, far fewer nice things.
      - cindyllm 5mo ago
        [dead]
    - sebastiennight 5mo ago
      This logic is how we ended up with TSA. "What do you mean, people used to just walk up to planes with their shoes on and a FULL 8-ounce water bottle in hand with barely any physical security?" It's easier to stop incentivizing people to ruin the commons, vs. trying to strengthen the commons against all possible adversarial behavior.
      - mothballed 5mo ago
        We ended up with locked cockpits that the pilots won't open for anybody, plus passengers willing to fight back due to the tragedy of the terrorists. We ended up with the TSA because Karen needed security theatre and the government was all too happy to increase the funding and scope of DHS with the nod of the useful idiots.
        Chaosvex 5mo ago
        And the locked cockpits have been indirectly responsible for a huge number of deaths. Best intentions and all that
        echelon 5mo ago
        IIRC, there was one commercial passenger flight where the captain locked himself out of the cockpit that led to everyone dying. Have there been multiple separate incidents? The other side of the coin is that hijackings used to be a frequent and regular occurrence. Now they're not anymore.
- cortesoft 5mo ago
  Oh man, I thought from the headline that it was going to be about a new prediction wager on the site about whether the manipulator had used a hair dryer or lighter. That would have been perfect.
  - tommica 5mo ago
    Because the picture already shows it is a hair dryer, now the prediction market would be what make and model...
cyberax 5mo ago
Throwing in pro sports is at least harmless for people who don't care about pro sports.
- bluGill 5mo ago
  Enough people do care about pro sports that someone who doesn't still needs to worry about being caught in a riot should something like this happen. (they already worry about riots for real wins/losses)
  - pepperoni_pizza 5mo ago
    There's also known relationship between sport betting and domestic violence.
    - dexterdog 5mo ago
      The main relationship is to all gambling. Sports likely gets assumed to make it worse because people still believe the myth that the Super Bowl is the worst DV day of the year.
- code_duck 5mo ago
  People sometimes do drastic things when they experience large gambling losses. They might embezzle, rob, scam, be unable to pay rent or debts. It has a significant effect on people who are not directly involved in gambling.
XorNot 5mo ago
It also substantially changes the definition of who's an insider. Polymarket has bets for random things like a particular word being used by an announcer. Suddenly the announcer is an insider on that bet.
- ndsipa_pomu 5mo ago
  I don't understand why people would want to bet on such an easily gamed outcome. I can understand that some people are compulsive gamblers, but it seems such a foolish thing to bet on. To me, it'd be like betting with someone about how many fingers they're going to hold up.
  - valleyer 5mo ago
    Life imitates art: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WeKX99gZpYs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WeKX99gZpYs
protocolture 5mo ago
Leaks from insiders are always good.
napolux 5mo ago
lost good money on the Eupolus Scandal.

by imglorp 5mo ago

mithras 5mo ago

I thought this one was the most interesting: ‘Hairdryer or lighter?’: French police look at claim of sensor tampering to win weather bets https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/23/hairdryer-or-lighter-french-police-look-at-claim-of-sensor-tampering-to-win-weather-bets https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/23/hairdryer-or-l...

mschuster91 5mo ago
Whoever did that deserves a few years in prison. Normally I'm not too much of a friend of draconian BS - but accurate reports of temperature, air pressure and wind speed are incredibly important for the safety of air travel. It's bad enough when such systems fail due to whatever sort of issue, but the last thing aviation needs is people intentionally blowing holes into the swiss cheese security model -.-
- Eduard 5mo ago
  Also bad if such crucial information is based on a single sensor with barely any physical security
  - bell-cot 5mo ago
    If you need serious physical security for every little bit of infrastructure, then your society will be able to afford far, far fewer nice things.
    - cindyllm 5mo ago
      [dead]
  - sebastiennight 5mo ago
    This logic is how we ended up with TSA. "What do you mean, people used to just walk up to planes with their shoes on and a FULL 8-ounce water bottle in hand with barely any physical security?" It's easier to stop incentivizing people to ruin the commons, vs. trying to strengthen the commons against all possible adversarial behavior.
    - mothballed 5mo ago
      We ended up with locked cockpits that the pilots won't open for anybody, plus passengers willing to fight back due to the tragedy of the terrorists. We ended up with the TSA because Karen needed security theatre and the government was all too happy to increase the funding and scope of DHS with the nod of the useful idiots.
      - Chaosvex 5mo ago
        And the locked cockpits have been indirectly responsible for a huge number of deaths. Best intentions and all that
        echelon 5mo ago
        IIRC, there was one commercial passenger flight where the captain locked himself out of the cockpit that led to everyone dying. Have there been multiple separate incidents? The other side of the coin is that hijackings used to be a frequent and regular occurrence. Now they're not anymore.
cortesoft 5mo ago
Oh man, I thought from the headline that it was going to be about a new prediction wager on the site about whether the manipulator had used a hair dryer or lighter. That would have been perfect.
- tommica 5mo ago
  Because the picture already shows it is a hair dryer, now the prediction market would be what make and model...

cyberax 5mo ago

Throwing in pro sports is at least harmless for people who don't care about pro sports.

bluGill 5mo ago
Enough people do care about pro sports that someone who doesn't still needs to worry about being caught in a riot should something like this happen. (they already worry about riots for real wins/losses)
- pepperoni_pizza 5mo ago
  There's also known relationship between sport betting and domestic violence.
  - dexterdog 5mo ago
    The main relationship is to all gambling. Sports likely gets assumed to make it worse because people still believe the myth that the Super Bowl is the worst DV day of the year.
code_duck 5mo ago
People sometimes do drastic things when they experience large gambling losses. They might embezzle, rob, scam, be unable to pay rent or debts. It has a significant effect on people who are not directly involved in gambling.

XorNot 5mo ago

It also substantially changes the definition of who's an insider. Polymarket has bets for random things like a particular word being used by an announcer. Suddenly the announcer is an insider on that bet.

ndsipa_pomu 5mo ago
I don't understand why people would want to bet on such an easily gamed outcome. I can understand that some people are compulsive gamblers, but it seems such a foolish thing to bet on. To me, it'd be like betting with someone about how many fingers they're going to hold up.
- valleyer 5mo ago
  Life imitates art: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WeKX99gZpYs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WeKX99gZpYs

protocolture 5mo ago

Leaks from insiders are always good.

napolux 5mo ago

lost good money on the Eupolus Scandal.