4 ms·

> What's your source for Opus being a 5T model? Elon Musk tweeted that Grok is 0.5T or 1/10th the size of Opus. https://xcancel.com/elonmusk/status/20421235616

by gpugreg 4mo ago

> What's your source for Opus being a 5T model? Elon Musk tweeted that Grok is 0.5T or 1/10th the size of Opus. https://xcancel.com/elonmusk/status/2042123561666855235#m https://xcancel.com/elonmusk/status/2042123561666855235#m While this source's reliability is certainly debatable, the size matches the results of this paper, in which researchers estimated the parameter count from model knowledge. https://01.me/research/ikp/ https://01.me/research/ikp/

stymaar 4mo ago
> While this source's reliability is certainly debatable Massive understatement. Nowadays it has become hard to find a single Musk statement that doesn't contain at least one lie. > the size matches the results of this paper, in which researchers estimated the parameter count from model knowledge. https://01.me/research/ikp/ https://01.me/research/ikp/ Thanks for the pointer. This estimation has Grok 6 times bigger than Musk claims it is, so maybe that's where the lie is. (I'm quite skeptical about that number though, it would be quite disappointing for the US tech if their flagship models had to be that much larger than the Chinese ones for such a small edge in performance. Because I don't think US labs are incompetent, I'd bet that US flagships aren't more than 2/3 times bigger than Chinese flagship. Otherwise it really doesn't bode well.)
- striking 4mo ago
  In tiny gray text right above the table is written "90% PI ≈ ±3.00× either side." Is GPT-5.5-Pro 3.4T or 30.8T in size, or somewhere in between? We just don't know.
UltraSane 4mo ago
Elon Musk has absolutely no credibility anymore. I'm more likely to believe the opposite of what he claims to be true.
- kakacik 4mo ago
  aka the russian strategy
orphea 4mo ago
Elon Musk tweeted Come on. The Onion would be a more credible source.
fluidcruft 4mo ago
Musk has a lot of incentive to explain away how horrible Grok is relative to Opus. It's certainly a better sell that Grok sucks because it's small and Opus is impressive because it's large, than the alternative that Grok is also large and sucks which points to xAI incompetence and mismanagement. Particularly when you're trying to IPO a rocket company based on rosy forecasted valuations of Grok dominating the market.

by gpugreg 4mo ago

stymaar 4mo ago

> While this source's reliability is certainly debatable Massive understatement. Nowadays it has become hard to find a single Musk statement that doesn't contain at least one lie. > the size matches the results of this paper, in which researchers estimated the parameter count from model knowledge. https://01.me/research/ikp/ https://01.me/research/ikp/ Thanks for the pointer. This estimation has Grok 6 times bigger than Musk claims it is, so maybe that's where the lie is. (I'm quite skeptical about that number though, it would be quite disappointing for the US tech if their flagship models had to be that much larger than the Chinese ones for such a small edge in performance. Because I don't think US labs are incompetent, I'd bet that US flagships aren't more than 2/3 times bigger than Chinese flagship. Otherwise it really doesn't bode well.)

striking 4mo ago
In tiny gray text right above the table is written "90% PI ≈ ±3.00× either side." Is GPT-5.5-Pro 3.4T or 30.8T in size, or somewhere in between? We just don't know.

UltraSane 4mo ago

Elon Musk has absolutely no credibility anymore. I'm more likely to believe the opposite of what he claims to be true.

kakacik 4mo ago
aka the russian strategy

orphea 4mo ago

Elon Musk tweeted Come on. The Onion would be a more credible source.

fluidcruft 4mo ago

Musk has a lot of incentive to explain away how horrible Grok is relative to Opus. It's certainly a better sell that Grok sucks because it's small and Opus is impressive because it's large, than the alternative that Grok is also large and sucks which points to xAI incompetence and mismanagement. Particularly when you're trying to IPO a rocket company based on rosy forecasted valuations of Grok dominating the market.