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please stop calling them prediction markets. It's not even accurate, you do not buy a prediciton
by seydor 5mo ago
please stop calling them prediction markets. It's not even accurate, you do not buy a prediciton
- izzydata 5mo agoCan you further explain the semantics you are talking about here? Are people not trying to predict things? Thus it being a market for people making predictions?
- deleted 5mo ago[deleted]
- seydor 5mo agopolymarket is selling bets, not predictions and other people are buying them. they are not being sold by people. It's like calling the casino a probability market.
- flexagoon 5mo agoI think the term "market" comes from the fact that it uses stock market–like pricing and allows you to sell your bets at any time. Ie. you buy "shares" of some outcome for 0.3$ if the probability is 30%, and then if the probability at any point goes to 50%, you can sell the "shares" for 0.5$ each. (Which of course doesn't make it any better or less of a casino, this is just to say that the word market didn't come from nowhere)
- seydor 5mo agosure, a bet market which is gambling, not a 'prediction market'. those are not predictions
- lxgr 5mo agoYou can gamble on the stock exchange, just like you can "non-gamblingly" hedge certain risks by buying/selling certain financial products such as event futures. (Many insurance policies are structurally just that and are used for very boring non-gambling purposes!) I don't think you'll find a simple/useful answer by slicing the problem on that axis.
- bastawhiz 5mo agoAt least when I put money in the stock market, I own a piece of the companies I'm invested in. I get some small amount of voting rights. You don't get anything outside of winnings or losses from your bets on a "prediction market".
- lxgr 5mo agoSure, but most retail shareholders don’t make use of that right, and it’s severely diluted compared to preferred shares to boot. That’s what I mean: Many things can be used in very different ways. These incentives usually matter more than the underlying things in finance.
- ASalazarMX 5mo agoThat's just gambling with frills.
- adamjb 5mo agoThat already had a name https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betting_exchange https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betting_exchange
- lxgr 5mo ago> they are not being sold by people. I think you might be mistaken about how Polymarket works. They are indeed only a platform operator; all trades are directly between participants.
- PowerElectronix 5mo agoCould they be called that if they sold fortune cookies?
- seydor 5mo agofortune cookie vendor would be more accurate
- lxgr 5mo agoYou don't literally buy the future on a futures exchange either. What name would you suggest instead?