4 ms·

Well, you are privately allowed to bet on whatever you like with another individual. That is indeed legally fine, though potentially distasteful. Polymarket is

Well, you are privately allowed to bet on whatever you like with another individual. That is indeed legally fine, though potentially distasteful. Polymarket is facilitating bets between people, not bets with the house. Gambling and insurance are both bets with the house.

CPLX 5mo ago
What the hell are you talking about? You are absolutely not allowed to bet on whatever you'd like with another individual. Depending on what you're betting on (for example, the price of a stock or the throw of a card), it falls under varying different regimes. This is highly regulated and has been for most of the whole of human history. Yes, there are de minimis exceptions. Your office NCAA pool, for example, is often legal, but it has nothing to do with what we're talking about and is also irrelevant to a business facilitating it via 18 U.S.C. § 1955.
- anthk 5mo ago
  In Spain in elderly caring homes there was a tradition to bet on Bingo matches for simbolic prices (barely one or two euros, enough for a coffee and that's it). It was legalized on paper recently, but technically everyone turned a blind eye. https://russpain.com/en/news-3/authorities-consider-legalizing-bingo-for-seniors-in-spain-416497/ https://russpain.com/en/news-3/authorities-consider-legalizi... >Rarely exceed 25 euros. Maybe in Christmas, because the weekly play was just about low prizes.
  - FireBeyond 5mo ago
    It was, believe it still is, somewhat similar in Australia, where the game Two Up (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two-up https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two-up), which was a wartime favorite among soldiers, was implicitly or allowed on Anzac Day despite being gambling.
kube-system 5mo ago
> Well, you are privately allowed to bet on whatever you like with another individual. What jurisdiction are we painting with that broad brush? This is far from universally true, even in the US.
- bit-anarchist 5mo ago
  Could you provide an example?
  - deleted 5mo ago
    [deleted]
  - deleted 5mo ago
    [deleted]
  - wsng 5mo ago
    In German law, any contract, including bets, is void if it is “sittenwidrig”. For example, if your wager in a bet is to become one’ slave in case you lose, this bet is void.
    - bit-anarchist 5mo ago
      I suppose they never specified the wager. But, given the topic is prediction markets and the topics of the bets, I thought it was implied that the wagers would be exclusively in money. With that in mind, is there any example of a law against specific topics being betted on?
josefritzishere 5mo ago
That "facilitating" argument didn't work out for Silk Road.
- philipallstar 5mo ago
  Because what the Silk Road did was illegal whether in person or not.
  - kube-system 5mo ago
    What Polymarket and Kalshi are doing is also illegal in many places.
jubilanti 5mo ago
Nope. "We're just an intermediary between people" is a 100+ year old yarn that casinos and bookies have been trying to spin. If you're presenting a point of entry to a betting line and taking a cut, congrats, you're the house. Doesn't matter if you adjust the betting line manually based on intuition or algorithmically based on betting volume. Sometimes it doesn't get enforced because of corruption, but if this was the case, then why aren't there tons of independent unregulated poker casinos where players just play against each other? If you facilitate and take a cut, you're the house.
- somenameforme 5mo ago
  Polymarket doesn't take a cut. Their profit comes in transaction fees.
  - FireBeyond 5mo ago
    "We don't take a cut of your bet, we just charge you a transaction fee on your bet" is reaching a bit.
    - deleted 5mo ago
      [deleted]
    - somenameforme 5mo ago
      My phrasing was poor, but they do so generally in a very good faith fashion. It's not just a wink wink rake type thing. For instance there are no fees at all on the most popular and high-volume markets - geopolitics and world events. And not only are there are no fees even on smaller markets for market 'makers' - people who put up an offer, but they provide a percentage of all fees collected from market 'takers' back to the makers, as a means of encouraging liquidity.
  - munk-a 5mo ago
    The mob boss doesn't charge me interest on my loan - he just really likes receiving expensive gifts from me.
usrusr 5mo ago
Can you name the individuals you are betting with on Polymarket? Can they name you?
- FireBeyond 5mo ago
  Gannon Ken Van Dyke has entered the chat.
- deleted 5mo ago
  [deleted]
epolanski 5mo ago
To me this is technicality. A bet is a bet, whether it's against the house or other people it's a bet.

CPLX 5mo ago

What the hell are you talking about? You are absolutely not allowed to bet on whatever you'd like with another individual. Depending on what you're betting on (for example, the price of a stock or the throw of a card), it falls under varying different regimes. This is highly regulated and has been for most of the whole of human history. Yes, there are de minimis exceptions. Your office NCAA pool, for example, is often legal, but it has nothing to do with what we're talking about and is also irrelevant to a business facilitating it via 18 U.S.C. § 1955.

anthk 5mo ago
In Spain in elderly caring homes there was a tradition to bet on Bingo matches for simbolic prices (barely one or two euros, enough for a coffee and that's it). It was legalized on paper recently, but technically everyone turned a blind eye. https://russpain.com/en/news-3/authorities-consider-legalizing-bingo-for-seniors-in-spain-416497/ https://russpain.com/en/news-3/authorities-consider-legalizi... >Rarely exceed 25 euros. Maybe in Christmas, because the weekly play was just about low prizes.
- FireBeyond 5mo ago
  It was, believe it still is, somewhat similar in Australia, where the game Two Up (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two-up https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two-up), which was a wartime favorite among soldiers, was implicitly or allowed on Anzac Day despite being gambling.

kube-system 5mo ago

> Well, you are privately allowed to bet on whatever you like with another individual. What jurisdiction are we painting with that broad brush? This is far from universally true, even in the US.

bit-anarchist 5mo ago
Could you provide an example?
- deleted 5mo ago
  [deleted]
- deleted 5mo ago
  [deleted]
- wsng 5mo ago
  In German law, any contract, including bets, is void if it is “sittenwidrig”. For example, if your wager in a bet is to become one’ slave in case you lose, this bet is void.
  - bit-anarchist 5mo ago
    I suppose they never specified the wager. But, given the topic is prediction markets and the topics of the bets, I thought it was implied that the wagers would be exclusively in money. With that in mind, is there any example of a law against specific topics being betted on?

josefritzishere 5mo ago

That "facilitating" argument didn't work out for Silk Road.

philipallstar 5mo ago
Because what the Silk Road did was illegal whether in person or not.
- kube-system 5mo ago
  What Polymarket and Kalshi are doing is also illegal in many places.

jubilanti 5mo ago

Nope. "We're just an intermediary between people" is a 100+ year old yarn that casinos and bookies have been trying to spin. If you're presenting a point of entry to a betting line and taking a cut, congrats, you're the house. Doesn't matter if you adjust the betting line manually based on intuition or algorithmically based on betting volume. Sometimes it doesn't get enforced because of corruption, but if this was the case, then why aren't there tons of independent unregulated poker casinos where players just play against each other? If you facilitate and take a cut, you're the house.

somenameforme 5mo ago
Polymarket doesn't take a cut. Their profit comes in transaction fees.
- FireBeyond 5mo ago
  "We don't take a cut of your bet, we just charge you a transaction fee on your bet" is reaching a bit.
  - deleted 5mo ago
    [deleted]
  - somenameforme 5mo ago
    My phrasing was poor, but they do so generally in a very good faith fashion. It's not just a wink wink rake type thing. For instance there are no fees at all on the most popular and high-volume markets - geopolitics and world events. And not only are there are no fees even on smaller markets for market 'makers' - people who put up an offer, but they provide a percentage of all fees collected from market 'takers' back to the makers, as a means of encouraging liquidity.
- munk-a 5mo ago
  The mob boss doesn't charge me interest on my loan - he just really likes receiving expensive gifts from me.

usrusr 5mo ago

Can you name the individuals you are betting with on Polymarket? Can they name you?

FireBeyond 5mo ago
Gannon Ken Van Dyke has entered the chat.
deleted 5mo ago
[deleted]

epolanski 5mo ago

To me this is technicality. A bet is a bet, whether it's against the house or other people it's a bet.