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Unemployment rates for recent college graduates stand at around 5.6%, well above the level for all workers. I think we just found the first evidence of AI's ex

Unemployment rates for recent college graduates stand at around 5.6%, well above the level for all workers. I think we just found the first evidence of AI's expected influence on the labor market.

citrin_ru 5mo ago
It's hard to separate impact of workers being replaced by AI from an impact of a recession (or stagnation). It's not obvious how AI impacts employees with various experience: on one hand a senior is better at spotting AI hallucination one other hand a junior using AI can do much more than a junior was able to do a couple years ago for a lower (if adjusted for inflation) than a couple years ago salary.
- palmotea 5mo ago
  > It's hard to separate impact of workers being replaced by AI from an impact of a recession (or stagnation). Doubly so since both phenomena interact: recessions are the time when employers will push hard for disruptive automation.
apwheele 5mo ago
A recent paper believes work from home reducing entry level gigs fits the data better, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6787638 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6787638. I hate it, but the X thread is the easiest review piece I can find, https://x.com/pj_lambert/status/2057477629528150369 https://x.com/pj_lambert/status/2057477629528150369.
- cshimmin 5mo ago
  https://xcancel.com/pj_lambert/status/2057477629528150369 https://xcancel.com/pj_lambert/status/2057477629528150369
- iso1631 5mo ago
  https://xcancel.com/pj_lambert/status/2057477629528150369 https://xcancel.com/pj_lambert/status/2057477629528150369 I struggle to see how WFH, especially as that was far more common from 2020 to 2023 than 2023 to 2026 Rather than the post-covid slump we've seen globally > WFH makes supervision, monitoring, and on-the-job learning harder It makes it different. In many ways it makes it easier, if you have the right supervisors and mentors working in the right way. The larger impact would be hotdesking. Going to an office and not sitting anywhere in your team makes collaboration harder than working from home. The requirement to move job to progress in remuneration harms retention, and thus reduces willingness to invest in a junior, but it's the expectation to move job after 2-3 years.
gruez 5mo ago
It's been creeping up even before the release of chatgpt. https://www.economist.com/content-assets/images/20250621_FNC712.png https://www.economist.com/content-assets/images/20250621_FNC...
skeeter2020 5mo ago
You need to look at this in context of longer timeframes; recent college graduates have had higher unemployment rates since 2019, well before AI, and the diff has increased since covid. I suspect it's more about a decline in overall growth and hiring and AI now gives a convenient excuse, but the trend has been in play for a while.
- jqpabc123 5mo ago
  https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/college-labor-market#--:explore:unemployment https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/college-labor-market#--:... According to the Federal Reserve data, the unemployment rate for recent grads only started to exceed the rate for all workers around 2022 and has been widening since.
- tennisflyi 5mo ago
  No. It’s ATS and not being able to figure out their no context, secret handshake
iso1631 5mo ago
Looking at this graph https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/ab/Unemployment_rate_for_recent_college_graduates_and_other_groups.webp https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/ab/Unemploy... I think you'd struggle to draw any conclusions about AI. Note your quote was "all workers", not "workers of same age with or without a degree" In the aftermath of 2008, recent graduates hit 7-8%, but their contemporaries without a degree hit 15%

Unemployment rates for recent college graduates stand at around 5.6%, well above the level for all workers. I think we just found the first evidence of AI's expected influence on the labor market.

citrin_ru 5mo ago

It's hard to separate impact of workers being replaced by AI from an impact of a recession (or stagnation). It's not obvious how AI impacts employees with various experience: on one hand a senior is better at spotting AI hallucination one other hand a junior using AI can do much more than a junior was able to do a couple years ago for a lower (if adjusted for inflation) than a couple years ago salary.

palmotea 5mo ago
> It's hard to separate impact of workers being replaced by AI from an impact of a recession (or stagnation). Doubly so since both phenomena interact: recessions are the time when employers will push hard for disruptive automation.

apwheele 5mo ago

A recent paper believes work from home reducing entry level gigs fits the data better, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6787638 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6787638. I hate it, but the X thread is the easiest review piece I can find, https://x.com/pj_lambert/status/2057477629528150369 https://x.com/pj_lambert/status/2057477629528150369.

cshimmin 5mo ago
https://xcancel.com/pj_lambert/status/2057477629528150369 https://xcancel.com/pj_lambert/status/2057477629528150369
iso1631 5mo ago
https://xcancel.com/pj_lambert/status/2057477629528150369 https://xcancel.com/pj_lambert/status/2057477629528150369 I struggle to see how WFH, especially as that was far more common from 2020 to 2023 than 2023 to 2026 Rather than the post-covid slump we've seen globally > WFH makes supervision, monitoring, and on-the-job learning harder It makes it different. In many ways it makes it easier, if you have the right supervisors and mentors working in the right way. The larger impact would be hotdesking. Going to an office and not sitting anywhere in your team makes collaboration harder than working from home. The requirement to move job to progress in remuneration harms retention, and thus reduces willingness to invest in a junior, but it's the expectation to move job after 2-3 years.

gruez 5mo ago

It's been creeping up even before the release of chatgpt. https://www.economist.com/content-assets/images/20250621_FNC712.png https://www.economist.com/content-assets/images/20250621_FNC...

skeeter2020 5mo ago

You need to look at this in context of longer timeframes; recent college graduates have had higher unemployment rates since 2019, well before AI, and the diff has increased since covid. I suspect it's more about a decline in overall growth and hiring and AI now gives a convenient excuse, but the trend has been in play for a while.

jqpabc123 5mo ago
https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/college-labor-market#--:explore:unemployment https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/college-labor-market#--:... According to the Federal Reserve data, the unemployment rate for recent grads only started to exceed the rate for all workers around 2022 and has been widening since.
tennisflyi 5mo ago
No. It’s ATS and not being able to figure out their no context, secret handshake

iso1631 5mo ago

Looking at this graph https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/ab/Unemployment_rate_for_recent_college_graduates_and_other_groups.webp https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/ab/Unemploy... I think you'd struggle to draw any conclusions about AI. Note your quote was "all workers", not "workers of same age with or without a degree" In the aftermath of 2008, recent graduates hit 7-8%, but their contemporaries without a degree hit 15%