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> In a similar vein, it looks like we may eventually (at least at some point) turn the tide on CO2 emissions, but not because anyone (at large) really sacrifice

> In a similar vein, it looks like we may eventually (at least at some point) turn the tide on CO2 emissions, but not because anyone (at large) really sacrificed anything, or did something that was mildly painful now in the hopes for a better future, but instead because renewable and battery tech is just getting to be the economic best option. One should not forget the reason that these technologies have become so cheap is policy interventions. Especially renewables got kick-started by programs like the German Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) which then created demand for Chinese mass manufacturing to eventually lower prices.

dogcomplex 4mo ago
Correct. Policy can do a whole lot for building (or suppressing) early development of a technology. Once it has already spread far and wide with clear economic pathways though? Perhaps less so.
nashashmi 4mo ago
At the same time, it was a cartel of industries that felt threatened by the emerging green technology and became one of its greatest opponents. Government policy only meant the official loss of one side to the other. We will never reverse CO2 emissions until humanity entertains itself less, spends less time in tourism, and does fewer unproductive recreational activities like drinking and drugs. Only then will waste go down significantly and utility go up. And only then will we reverse co2 emissions.
ndrh 4mo ago
Kind of terrifying that "we may" turn the tide on CO2 is an acceptable level of optimism. If we don't, we all die. it isn't something to leave up to mindless market mechanics.
- deleted 4mo ago
  [deleted]
- hn_throwaway_99 4mo ago
  > If we don't, we all die. No, we don't. Even in the worse case scenarios, a runaway greenhouse effect a la Venus was never remotely part of the scientific consensus. Heck, the IPCC just retired the worst case RCP 8.5 scenario saying it is now scientifically implausible. Now a big reason it was deemed implausible is the transition to renewable energy is happening. But even if RCP 8.5 did happen, it was not a humanity ending scenario.
  - jcattle 4mo ago
    > But even if RCP 8.5 did happen, it was not a humanity ending scenario. Can you do it like the IPCC report and assign a confidence to that claim? Mine would be: RCP 8.5 ending humanity (very low likelihood, low confidence), based on absolutely nothing.
  - CalRobert 4mo ago
    In what scenario does humanity not achieve net neutral emissions and survive?
    - hn_throwaway_99 4mo ago
      This idea that climate change would lead to "ending humanity" just shows to me how a lot of the popular messaging outran the actual science on the issue. Again, a "runaway Venus" was never really in the cards. As far as I am aware, basically all the carbon that is now locked in the ground in fossil fuels was once in the environment, and Earth still supported copious life at that time. E.g. at one point when dinosaurs roamed the Earth, there were no polar ice caps (Antarctica, even when it was near its current position over the South Pole, had lush green forests and lots of dinosaurs, even with many months of darkness), sea level was many meters higher, but life still flourished. I'm not downplaying climate change. A significant, geologically fast rise in global temperatures would kill millions/billions of people, inundate coastal areas, result in major migrations and resource wars, etc. But "ending humanity" by making the entire planet unlivable was never supported by the science.
      - 4mo ago
- tardedmeme 4mo ago
  We're now, in 2026, currently at 1.5 degrees above baseline. This used to be the threshold at which we decided it would be too late and everything would be fucked and human civilization would inevitably collapse. That won't happen, of course, since we kept increasing the threshold every time we approached the previous threshold. Luckily for us now, human society won't collapse until we hit 2 degrees!
  - hn_throwaway_99 4mo ago
    > This used to be the threshold at which we decided it would be too late and everything would be fucked and human civilization would inevitably collapse. Man, reading these comments is making me realize how crazy the messaging on climate alarmism actually got. No, 1.5 C was literally never the threshold where "everything would be fucked and human civilization would inevitably collapse." Where are people getting this misinformation? It wasn't from the IPCC, nor from the broader scientific consensus, nor was it part of the Kyoto or Paris Protocol statements. Yes, there would be colossally bad impacts, but "everything would be fucked and human civilization would inevitably collapse" is just total bullshit.
    - CptFribble 4mo ago
      its science journalism tbh, the realities of climate change's impact is so spread out and complicated that it's difficult to communicate to a largely scientifically-illiterate audience. see the perennial confusion over cold heavy snow winters being an artifact of global warming due to increased energy in the weather systems causing more volatility instead of just a simple "everything is warmer now." so journalists focus on Number, because Number is simple and understandable. even when Number is mostly or completely bogus.
  - account42 4mo ago
    Who is this "we" you reference? There have always been fear sellers (as well as their cult followers) and their predictions have always been pure fantasy but most of society rightly ignores them.
- timeninja 4mo ago
  There is scope for cautious optimism. Certainly the changes in train around the world (and being wound back in the US) are well and truly heading in the right direction, and at pace. It's a matter of perspective. c.f. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/reframing-energy-for-the-age-of-electricity/ https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/reframing-energy-fo...
beloch 4mo ago
Check out Charles C. Man's "The Wizard and the Prophet". In this book, a wizard is someone who approaches a problem with technological innovation. A prophet is someone who approaches it with societal transformation, usually involving sacrifice by the masses. e.g. Malthus (and others) observed that human populations were growing exponentially, but crop-land is a finite resource. Humanity seemed doomed to starvation in just a few short generations. As a prophet, Malthus tried to get people to stop having so many children. Other prophets repeated this effort multiple times, always warning of an apocalypse that was just a few decades away. Meanwhile, wizards tried spreading bat guano on fields and started breeding new varieties of wheat, rice, etc.. The result has been a continual stream of innovation that has led to the world's food supply growing faster than its population. Yet, the warning of the prophets remains sound. There's an ultimate limit. Humans seem hardwired to both be and love prophets while totally failing to follow their advice. Prophets have been warning us to reduce our energy use, eat local, bicycle everywhere, etc.. Some of us do some of these things some of the time, but not nearly enough to make a real difference. Wizards have gotten solar and wind to the point where they're economically viable enough to supplant coal and internal combustion engines, and that is making a huge difference. Prophets are valuable for identifying problems, such as AI, but their demands for abstinence and self-sacrifice usually don't gain much traction. It's when the wizards show up that things usually start cooking. Prophets have identified AI as a problem and are calling for limits, but history has shown that not nearly enough people are likely to listen. How might a wizard approach the problem in a way that lets people keep doing their thing without the world ending? The pace of AI development is so quick that we also have to ask, is there enough time for the wizards to do their thing? --------------- EDIT: On the bright side, while the rapidity of the AI revolution seems utterly unprecedented, so too is the concentration of power in those who control it. The prophets really only need to convince or coerce a handful of billionaires in order to buy the world's wizards years or decades.
- javier_e06 4mo ago
  That is a great book. I like how the book describes the Wizards tackling world famine through GMO's. AI accelerates our rate of energy consumption as we vie for efficiencies and alternative sources of energy. That is concerning. Maybe the next book will be: The AI and The Prophet.

dogcomplex 4mo ago

Correct. Policy can do a whole lot for building (or suppressing) early development of a technology. Once it has already spread far and wide with clear economic pathways though? Perhaps less so.

nashashmi 4mo ago

At the same time, it was a cartel of industries that felt threatened by the emerging green technology and became one of its greatest opponents. Government policy only meant the official loss of one side to the other. We will never reverse CO2 emissions until humanity entertains itself less, spends less time in tourism, and does fewer unproductive recreational activities like drinking and drugs. Only then will waste go down significantly and utility go up. And only then will we reverse co2 emissions.

ndrh 4mo ago

Kind of terrifying that "we may" turn the tide on CO2 is an acceptable level of optimism. If we don't, we all die. it isn't something to leave up to mindless market mechanics.

deleted 4mo ago
[deleted]
hn_throwaway_99 4mo ago
> If we don't, we all die. No, we don't. Even in the worse case scenarios, a runaway greenhouse effect a la Venus was never remotely part of the scientific consensus. Heck, the IPCC just retired the worst case RCP 8.5 scenario saying it is now scientifically implausible. Now a big reason it was deemed implausible is the transition to renewable energy is happening. But even if RCP 8.5 did happen, it was not a humanity ending scenario.
- jcattle 4mo ago
  > But even if RCP 8.5 did happen, it was not a humanity ending scenario. Can you do it like the IPCC report and assign a confidence to that claim? Mine would be: RCP 8.5 ending humanity (very low likelihood, low confidence), based on absolutely nothing.
- CalRobert 4mo ago
  In what scenario does humanity not achieve net neutral emissions and survive?
  - hn_throwaway_99 4mo ago
    This idea that climate change would lead to "ending humanity" just shows to me how a lot of the popular messaging outran the actual science on the issue. Again, a "runaway Venus" was never really in the cards. As far as I am aware, basically all the carbon that is now locked in the ground in fossil fuels was once in the environment, and Earth still supported copious life at that time. E.g. at one point when dinosaurs roamed the Earth, there were no polar ice caps (Antarctica, even when it was near its current position over the South Pole, had lush green forests and lots of dinosaurs, even with many months of darkness), sea level was many meters higher, but life still flourished. I'm not downplaying climate change. A significant, geologically fast rise in global temperatures would kill millions/billions of people, inundate coastal areas, result in major migrations and resource wars, etc. But "ending humanity" by making the entire planet unlivable was never supported by the science.
    - 4mo ago
tardedmeme 4mo ago
We're now, in 2026, currently at 1.5 degrees above baseline. This used to be the threshold at which we decided it would be too late and everything would be fucked and human civilization would inevitably collapse. That won't happen, of course, since we kept increasing the threshold every time we approached the previous threshold. Luckily for us now, human society won't collapse until we hit 2 degrees!
- hn_throwaway_99 4mo ago
  > This used to be the threshold at which we decided it would be too late and everything would be fucked and human civilization would inevitably collapse. Man, reading these comments is making me realize how crazy the messaging on climate alarmism actually got. No, 1.5 C was literally never the threshold where "everything would be fucked and human civilization would inevitably collapse." Where are people getting this misinformation? It wasn't from the IPCC, nor from the broader scientific consensus, nor was it part of the Kyoto or Paris Protocol statements. Yes, there would be colossally bad impacts, but "everything would be fucked and human civilization would inevitably collapse" is just total bullshit.
  - CptFribble 4mo ago
    its science journalism tbh, the realities of climate change's impact is so spread out and complicated that it's difficult to communicate to a largely scientifically-illiterate audience. see the perennial confusion over cold heavy snow winters being an artifact of global warming due to increased energy in the weather systems causing more volatility instead of just a simple "everything is warmer now." so journalists focus on Number, because Number is simple and understandable. even when Number is mostly or completely bogus.
- account42 4mo ago
  Who is this "we" you reference? There have always been fear sellers (as well as their cult followers) and their predictions have always been pure fantasy but most of society rightly ignores them.
timeninja 4mo ago
There is scope for cautious optimism. Certainly the changes in train around the world (and being wound back in the US) are well and truly heading in the right direction, and at pace. It's a matter of perspective. c.f. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/reframing-energy-for-the-age-of-electricity/ https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/reframing-energy-fo...

beloch 4mo ago

Check out Charles C. Man's "The Wizard and the Prophet". In this book, a wizard is someone who approaches a problem with technological innovation. A prophet is someone who approaches it with societal transformation, usually involving sacrifice by the masses. e.g. Malthus (and others) observed that human populations were growing exponentially, but crop-land is a finite resource. Humanity seemed doomed to starvation in just a few short generations. As a prophet, Malthus tried to get people to stop having so many children. Other prophets repeated this effort multiple times, always warning of an apocalypse that was just a few decades away. Meanwhile, wizards tried spreading bat guano on fields and started breeding new varieties of wheat, rice, etc.. The result has been a continual stream of innovation that has led to the world's food supply growing faster than its population. Yet, the warning of the prophets remains sound. There's an ultimate limit. Humans seem hardwired to both be and love prophets while totally failing to follow their advice. Prophets have been warning us to reduce our energy use, eat local, bicycle everywhere, etc.. Some of us do some of these things some of the time, but not nearly enough to make a real difference. Wizards have gotten solar and wind to the point where they're economically viable enough to supplant coal and internal combustion engines, and that is making a huge difference. Prophets are valuable for identifying problems, such as AI, but their demands for abstinence and self-sacrifice usually don't gain much traction. It's when the wizards show up that things usually start cooking. Prophets have identified AI as a problem and are calling for limits, but history has shown that not nearly enough people are likely to listen. How might a wizard approach the problem in a way that lets people keep doing their thing without the world ending? The pace of AI development is so quick that we also have to ask, is there enough time for the wizards to do their thing? --------------- EDIT: On the bright side, while the rapidity of the AI revolution seems utterly unprecedented, so too is the concentration of power in those who control it. The prophets really only need to convince or coerce a handful of billionaires in order to buy the world's wizards years or decades.

javier_e06 4mo ago
That is a great book. I like how the book describes the Wizards tackling world famine through GMO's. AI accelerates our rate of energy consumption as we vie for efficiencies and alternative sources of energy. That is concerning. Maybe the next book will be: The AI and The Prophet.