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By that definition almost nothing is game changing? The US is one of the most oil hungry countries on the planet, and even 3 months supply is a quarter. That

by lazide 5mo ago

By that definition almost nothing is game changing? The US is one of the most oil hungry countries on the planet, and even 3 months supply is a quarter. That would definitely move the needle on prices!

cyberax 5mo ago
> By that definition almost nothing is game changing? Yes. That's indeed correct. No amount of new oil discoveries or desperate attempts to put an oil well in every endangered species habitat is going to change the current trajectory. The practically recoverable oil reserves in the US are estimated at around 150-200 billion barrels. That's about 30 years at the current production rate. Though not at the current price, a lot of reserves are economical only if the oil price is high enough. So we'll still need to switch to something else in the long run, regardless of the CO2 pollution.
- lazide 5mo ago
  Uh ok? That seems rather pointless as a comment on current affairs. This will change things for the foreseeable future, and is certainly going to move the needle over that time.
  - cyberax 5mo ago
    No. It's _extremely_ important to keep in mind the actual scale of these kinds of projects. When people are saying about "energy rush" and "vast reserves", it's important to keep mentioning that the total amount of these reserves is just enough for maybe _months_ of the total US consumption. But the damage to the ecosystems might take hundreds of years to recover, and that's not even mentioning the CO2 pollution. And this is not common knowledge. I visit Alaska periodically, and I've heard several times from the local people that there are oil reserves there for "hundreds of years". And we're not using them because the Federal government is not allowing them to drill for it.
    - lazide 5mo ago
      You’re the one that seems to not fully understand the scale of what is happening - economically. ‘Months of US supply’ == large portions of the world GDP. People want to get rich and/or not starve now (and for the next 20 years) too.
      - cyberax 5mo ago
        > ‘Months of US supply’ == large portions of the world GDP. The world's yearly GDP is around $120T a year. 1 billion barrels at $50 per barrel is around 0.04% of that.
        lazide 5mo ago
        lol, $50 bbl, and no counting knock on economic activity or price effects? Sure.
        cyberax 5mo ago
        Totally agree. We also need to deduct the cost of the eventual remediation and cleanup. And the cost of resettling people from the ghost towns once the oil runs out.

by lazide 5mo ago

cyberax 5mo ago

> By that definition almost nothing is game changing? Yes. That's indeed correct. No amount of new oil discoveries or desperate attempts to put an oil well in every endangered species habitat is going to change the current trajectory. The practically recoverable oil reserves in the US are estimated at around 150-200 billion barrels. That's about 30 years at the current production rate. Though not at the current price, a lot of reserves are economical only if the oil price is high enough. So we'll still need to switch to something else in the long run, regardless of the CO2 pollution.

lazide 5mo ago
Uh ok? That seems rather pointless as a comment on current affairs. This will change things for the foreseeable future, and is certainly going to move the needle over that time.
- cyberax 5mo ago
  No. It's _extremely_ important to keep in mind the actual scale of these kinds of projects. When people are saying about "energy rush" and "vast reserves", it's important to keep mentioning that the total amount of these reserves is just enough for maybe _months_ of the total US consumption. But the damage to the ecosystems might take hundreds of years to recover, and that's not even mentioning the CO2 pollution. And this is not common knowledge. I visit Alaska periodically, and I've heard several times from the local people that there are oil reserves there for "hundreds of years". And we're not using them because the Federal government is not allowing them to drill for it.
  - lazide 5mo ago
    You’re the one that seems to not fully understand the scale of what is happening - economically. ‘Months of US supply’ == large portions of the world GDP. People want to get rich and/or not starve now (and for the next 20 years) too.
    - cyberax 5mo ago
      > ‘Months of US supply’ == large portions of the world GDP. The world's yearly GDP is around $120T a year. 1 billion barrels at $50 per barrel is around 0.04% of that.
      - lazide 5mo ago
        lol, $50 bbl, and no counting knock on economic activity or price effects? Sure.
        cyberax 5mo ago
        Totally agree. We also need to deduct the cost of the eventual remediation and cleanup. And the cost of resettling people from the ghost towns once the oil runs out.