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Nah this person is dead wrong. Lets come back in 2 years and check on it. I'm willing to make a reasonable bet on these terms: companies will go even more AI na

Nah this person is dead wrong. Lets come back in 2 years and check on it. I'm willing to make a reasonable bet on these terms: companies will go even more AI native, will use even more tokens and spend even more money. EDIT: To people downvoting me, please come up with a reasonable bet and lets try to work it out. EDIT 2: $500 bet paid to your account on whether LLM's are going to still be used productively or not. No one? EDIT 3: Any bet that would express the author's argument in a way that can be disproven in the future

rebuilder 5mo ago
You could both be right.
- simianwords 5mo ago
  No, I don't think people will be spending even more money on AI if it is not becoming productive. 2 years is a long time to get used to it.
  - Izkata 5mo ago
    You can be completely right in a bad way, and it's what I suspect is going to happen. Three years ago I mentioned to co-workers I was most concerned about juniors not being able to build skills to become mid-level or senior. In the past year others have started talking about the same. But also I had thought people who were already mid-level or senior could resist and control themselves enough to use it well - but in the past six months two different co-workers have independently said they've noticed their own skills atrophying. And with those skills atrophied, they'll have less and less input/direction for the AI tools. My suspicion is that for everyone who has gone all-in, a few years from now, they will still see a productivity increase from their own baseline - but their baseline will have dropped from where it is now as they "get used to it".
- frabcus 5mo ago
  Right the original article says "Do you think macOS will get better or worse in the next 2 years?" (rhetorically implying "worse"). That could easily be true and Apple "will use even more tokens and spend even more money".
  - simianwords 5mo ago
    Sure but what would be a bet that can disprove the author? If there’s nothing then the post is useless.
    - lmm 5mo ago
      Something that would disprove the author would be an increase in industry code quality. A reduction in bug rates might be a reasonable proxy measure.
kelnos 5mo ago
The author is not arguing against your bet. I think the author wouldn't be surprised if you won that bet. But that doesn't change the argument he does make.
- simianwords 5mo ago
  What is a bet that most charitably represents what the author would make? If there’s no such bet then it’s just whining. If there is then I’d like to know.
  - chrisco255 5mo ago
    The author, George Hotz, owns an AI company: https://comma.ai/ https://comma.ai/ He is just making a moment-in-time assessment of how he feels about current state of LLM coding. I don't think it's a super-strongly held opinion, I'm sure he would be willing to change his opinion if the next two years of LLM development produce exponentially better results.
    - simianwords 5mo ago
      > The _Eternal_ Sloptember > I’m calling it now, the adoption of AI agents into software development will be one of the most costly mistakes in the field’s history > Agents _will_ end up hurting large organizations more than high performing individuals or small orgs > Do you think macOS will get better or worse in the next 2 years? > I don’t think models like this will _ever_ be able to program, I think the process matters. From this quote especially how can you say he only thinks about the "current" state of LLM coding? You are wrong. I don't think this is a point in time assessment. I don't think it is not supper strongly held. I do think he will change his mind though. That's why I asking for terms of the bet.

rebuilder 5mo ago

You could both be right.

simianwords 5mo ago
No, I don't think people will be spending even more money on AI if it is not becoming productive. 2 years is a long time to get used to it.
- Izkata 5mo ago
  You can be completely right in a bad way, and it's what I suspect is going to happen. Three years ago I mentioned to co-workers I was most concerned about juniors not being able to build skills to become mid-level or senior. In the past year others have started talking about the same. But also I had thought people who were already mid-level or senior could resist and control themselves enough to use it well - but in the past six months two different co-workers have independently said they've noticed their own skills atrophying. And with those skills atrophied, they'll have less and less input/direction for the AI tools. My suspicion is that for everyone who has gone all-in, a few years from now, they will still see a productivity increase from their own baseline - but their baseline will have dropped from where it is now as they "get used to it".
frabcus 5mo ago
Right the original article says "Do you think macOS will get better or worse in the next 2 years?" (rhetorically implying "worse"). That could easily be true and Apple "will use even more tokens and spend even more money".
- simianwords 5mo ago
  Sure but what would be a bet that can disprove the author? If there’s nothing then the post is useless.
  - lmm 5mo ago
    Something that would disprove the author would be an increase in industry code quality. A reduction in bug rates might be a reasonable proxy measure.

kelnos 5mo ago

The author is not arguing against your bet. I think the author wouldn't be surprised if you won that bet. But that doesn't change the argument he does make.

simianwords 5mo ago
What is a bet that most charitably represents what the author would make? If there’s no such bet then it’s just whining. If there is then I’d like to know.
- chrisco255 5mo ago
  The author, George Hotz, owns an AI company: https://comma.ai/ https://comma.ai/ He is just making a moment-in-time assessment of how he feels about current state of LLM coding. I don't think it's a super-strongly held opinion, I'm sure he would be willing to change his opinion if the next two years of LLM development produce exponentially better results.
  - simianwords 5mo ago
    > The _Eternal_ Sloptember > I’m calling it now, the adoption of AI agents into software development will be one of the most costly mistakes in the field’s history > Agents _will_ end up hurting large organizations more than high performing individuals or small orgs > Do you think macOS will get better or worse in the next 2 years? > I don’t think models like this will _ever_ be able to program, I think the process matters. From this quote especially how can you say he only thinks about the "current" state of LLM coding? You are wrong. I don't think this is a point in time assessment. I don't think it is not supper strongly held. I do think he will change his mind though. That's why I asking for terms of the bet.