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I suspect Chinese factories will get built first, but quality may take a few years to really nail down. Basically: China floods the market with cheaper but le
by esseph 5mo ago
I suspect Chinese factories will get built first, but quality may take a few years to really nail down.
Basically:
China floods the market with cheaper but less QA'd parts, makes a gazillion dollars, is able to spend said money to fix yields / QA issues and streamline operations, by the time that happens Micron and maybe a few other existing players will have new memory production, and then we'll have a flood of cheap, reliable memory. 4yr, maybe?
- ahartmetz 5mo agoIt is not a law of nature that Chinese products are lower quality (cf. electric cars) and I don't see why they would go for that. They can just bin what they produce like everyone else and sell their products for what they have been tested to deliver.
- nomel 5mo agoBut it is a near law that the first to market attempts will fully embraces the deeply engrained culture of 差不多, until market forces beat it out of the product line.
- fittingopposite 5mo agoWhat is 差不多?
- bendangelo 5mo agoBasically means, “good enough” attitude.
- xeonmc 5mo agoNot "good enough", but rather "close enough". Very different connotations.
- fittingopposite 5mo agoClose enough in which sense?
- chrinic6391 5mo ago[dead]
- decimalenough 5mo agoChabuduo, basically "good enough" (but often not really). Classic essay on the topic: https://aeon.co/essays/what-chinese-corner-cutting-reveals-about-modernity https://aeon.co/essays/what-chinese-corner-cutting-reveals-a...
- khriss 5mo agoSeems very similar to the Indian concept of 'Chalta Hai'!
- kdheiwns 5mo agoThat's no different from the Silicon Valley mindset of cashing out and jumping ship.
- esseph 5mo agoThis has nothing to do about nationality, it has everything to do with building and running a brand new, highly technical, mass production facility.
- dylan604 5mo agoAnd historical record of the lack of QA coming from Chinese manufacturing
- epolanski 5mo agoChina is a gigantic country where one in 6 humans live that either produce directly or indirectly, 70%+ of the world's goods. It's quite difficult to make general statements at such a gargantuan scale encompassing every single sector. China has an abundance of terrific QA in electronics and advanced technologies as much as it has an abundance of the opposite, just simply due to its sheer size.
- AngryData 5mo agoBecause we buy that stuff even without it. And if you make both good and crappy products, why sell the good stuff internationally? The US did it when it was a bigger steel supplier, good steel was sold domestically, crappy steel was sold elsewhere. If you got crappy steel in Africa at the time you might have thought US steel was garbage with poor QA, but in reality US steel was great and they just shipped the crappy stuff because people still kept buying it.
- WarOnPrivacy 5mo ago>And historical record of the lack of QA coming from Chinese manufacturing My endlessly excellent Chinese gear (Dahua cameras, XikeStor switches, etc) doesn't know what you're referring to.
- Ekaros 5mo agoThe west absolutely loves enshitified products. So why not sell them what they want? If they wanted quality they would pay slightly more and do something about it.
- cyost 5mo agoThey're doing decent enough already for consumer electronics. Corsair is selling 16GB 6000MT/s CL36 DDR5 sticks in China using memory from CXMT: https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/ddr5/chinese-memory-maker-cxmt-enters-the-mainstream-consumer-memory-with-corsair-vengeance-ddr5-kit-chinese-made-dram-emerges-as-an-antidote-for-crushing-shortages https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/ddr5/chinese-memo...
- curiousllama 5mo agoHow long would it take an aggressive company to expand production capacity? I always thought it takes a few years, at minimum, for even established players to stand up new fabs
- amluto 5mo agoAs far as I can tell, Micron and SK Hynix are using EUV lithography and may be constrained by availability of the equipment, whereas CXMT does not have EUV machines. There were reports that EUV lithography is needed for high yields, but CXMT appears to be proving that wrong.
- magicalhippo 5mo agoMicron was dragging its heel on EUV and only got it last year[1]. Seems it's mostly useful for LPDDR modules which are predominantly used in battery-powered devices and to improve margins. [1]: https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/dram/micron-samples-ground-breaking-euv-based-memory-new-dram-process-slashes-power-consumption-by-20-percent-and-boosts-performance-by-15-percent https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/dram/micron-sampl...
- scheme271 5mo agoLPDDR is used by the Nvidia rubin platform. I can see AMD using lpddr as well because it gives you denser memory at the same or reduced power budgets.
- 5mo ago
- ssl-3 5mo agoMapping around defects in RAM has been a viable thing for a really long time. I remember reading about it in Linux contexts decades ago, and these days it's something that Windows does automatically. When can I expect this flood of cheaper RAM with less QA? I'd like to contribute to the gazillion dollar pile as soon as possible.
- dzhiurgis 5mo agoDon't think they'll flood the market. Instead gov will subsidize entire vertical (gpu, memory and power) - you'll just buy deepseek tokens on the cheap, just like EVs, solar and batteries. In return you'll give away your data.