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China is about to flood the market and prove this notion wrong. If there is demand they want to meet it with supply. But to your point, that is exactly how Ame
by brandensilva 4mo ago
China is about to flood the market and prove this notion wrong. If there is demand they want to meet it with supply.
But to your point, that is exactly how American companies like to play now. No one is stopping them from screwing over the consumer.
I have a Micron near me and they are building another chip facility but we are years away still so I suspect China will beat them to the punch.
- esseph 4mo agoI suspect Chinese factories will get built first, but quality may take a few years to really nail down. Basically: China floods the market with cheaper but less QA'd parts, makes a gazillion dollars, is able to spend said money to fix yields / QA issues and streamline operations, by the time that happens Micron and maybe a few other existing players will have new memory production, and then we'll have a flood of cheap, reliable memory. 4yr, maybe?
- ahartmetz 4mo agoIt is not a law of nature that Chinese products are lower quality (cf. electric cars) and I don't see why they would go for that. They can just bin what they produce like everyone else and sell their products for what they have been tested to deliver.
- nomel 4mo agoBut it is a near law that the first to market attempts will fully embraces the deeply engrained culture of 差不多, until market forces beat it out of the product line.
- fittingopposite 4mo agoWhat is 差不多?
- bendangelo 4mo agoBasically means, “good enough” attitude.
- xeonmc 4mo agoNot "good enough", but rather "close enough". Very different connotations.
- fittingopposite 4mo agoClose enough in which sense?
- chrinic6391 4mo ago[dead]
- decimalenough 4mo agoChabuduo, basically "good enough" (but often not really). Classic essay on the topic: https://aeon.co/essays/what-chinese-corner-cutting-reveals-about-modernity https://aeon.co/essays/what-chinese-corner-cutting-reveals-a...
- khriss 4mo agoSeems very similar to the Indian concept of 'Chalta Hai'!
- kdheiwns 4mo agoThat's no different from the Silicon Valley mindset of cashing out and jumping ship.
- esseph 4mo agoThis has nothing to do about nationality, it has everything to do with building and running a brand new, highly technical, mass production facility.
- dylan604 4mo agoAnd historical record of the lack of QA coming from Chinese manufacturing
- epolanski 4mo agoChina is a gigantic country where one in 6 humans live that either produce directly or indirectly, 70%+ of the world's goods. It's quite difficult to make general statements at such a gargantuan scale encompassing every single sector. China has an abundance of terrific QA in electronics and advanced technologies as much as it has an abundance of the opposite, just simply due to its sheer size.
- AngryData 4mo agoBecause we buy that stuff even without it. And if you make both good and crappy products, why sell the good stuff internationally? The US did it when it was a bigger steel supplier, good steel was sold domestically, crappy steel was sold elsewhere. If you got crappy steel in Africa at the time you might have thought US steel was garbage with poor QA, but in reality US steel was great and they just shipped the crappy stuff because people still kept buying it.
- WarOnPrivacy 4mo ago>And historical record of the lack of QA coming from Chinese manufacturing My endlessly excellent Chinese gear (Dahua cameras, XikeStor switches, etc) doesn't know what you're referring to.
- Ekaros 4mo agoThe west absolutely loves enshitified products. So why not sell them what they want? If they wanted quality they would pay slightly more and do something about it.
- cyost 4mo agoThey're doing decent enough already for consumer electronics. Corsair is selling 16GB 6000MT/s CL36 DDR5 sticks in China using memory from CXMT: https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/ddr5/chinese-memory-maker-cxmt-enters-the-mainstream-consumer-memory-with-corsair-vengeance-ddr5-kit-chinese-made-dram-emerges-as-an-antidote-for-crushing-shortages https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/ddr5/chinese-memo...
- curiousllama 4mo agoHow long would it take an aggressive company to expand production capacity? I always thought it takes a few years, at minimum, for even established players to stand up new fabs
- amluto 4mo agoAs far as I can tell, Micron and SK Hynix are using EUV lithography and may be constrained by availability of the equipment, whereas CXMT does not have EUV machines. There were reports that EUV lithography is needed for high yields, but CXMT appears to be proving that wrong.
- magicalhippo 4mo agoMicron was dragging its heel on EUV and only got it last year[1]. Seems it's mostly useful for LPDDR modules which are predominantly used in battery-powered devices and to improve margins. [1]: https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/dram/micron-samples-ground-breaking-euv-based-memory-new-dram-process-slashes-power-consumption-by-20-percent-and-boosts-performance-by-15-percent https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/dram/micron-sampl...
- scheme271 4mo agoLPDDR is used by the Nvidia rubin platform. I can see AMD using lpddr as well because it gives you denser memory at the same or reduced power budgets.
- 4mo ago
- ssl-3 4mo agoMapping around defects in RAM has been a viable thing for a really long time. I remember reading about it in Linux contexts decades ago, and these days it's something that Windows does automatically. When can I expect this flood of cheaper RAM with less QA? I'd like to contribute to the gazillion dollar pile as soon as possible.
- dzhiurgis 4mo agoDon't think they'll flood the market. Instead gov will subsidize entire vertical (gpu, memory and power) - you'll just buy deepseek tokens on the cheap, just like EVs, solar and batteries. In return you'll give away your data.
- shdh 4mo agoYeah, more global competition in DRAM would be great. SK Hynix and Samsung are South Korean.
- overfeed 4mo ago> SK Hynix and Samsung are South Korean. The Korean memory makers are playing the same game as Micron and simply moving existing capacity up-market. GP was referring to upstart Chinese memory manufacturers like ChangXin, who - if their yields manage to catch the wave - could not have asked for a more favorable market after the big 3 have abandoned the consumer segment. Consumers who would have otherwise turned up their noses at CXMT will not have the luxury.
- xbmcuser 4mo agoChinese manufacturers will probably takeover consumer ram that most of us use as current manufacturing contracts expire and Samsung SK and micron move all their production to HBM for data centers. Corsair recently released chinese chips based DDR5 sticks.
- throawayonthe 4mo ago> Corsair recently released chinese chips based DDR5 sticks. hm interesting https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/ddr5/chinese-memory-maker-cxmt-enters-the-mainstream-consumer-memory-with-corsair-vengeance-ddr5-kit-chinese-made-dram-emerges-as-an-antidote-for-crushing-shortages https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/ddr5/chinese-memo...
- Incipient 4mo agoI've so far been anti-chinese memory in my recommendations, not because it's Chinese (I don't really trust any big organisation/govt other than the EU?) but because they've been very new, and it's not worth PC stability for saving $50. However with corsair giving it their blessing, and their technology having matured a bit (a lot?), and more reviews showing good stability (longevity I suppose, is TBD) they're definitely worth recommending these days.
- XorNot 4mo agoChina wants a sovereign DRAM capacity. They're playing an entirely different game then the commercial suppliers in the West.
- mattmaroon 4mo agoThey want both.
- downrightmike 4mo agoAnd those commercial suppliers are making it too easy an putting themselves out of business before 2030
- bee_rider 4mo agoThey’ll also go out of business if they make a massive investment to increase supply, and then the “AI” bubble pops, cratering demand. It’s a tough spot.
- sznio 4mo agoall that matters is next quarter.
- downrightmike 4mo agoThat's implied
- Paradigma11 4mo agoThey also want other countries to not have sovereign DRAM capacity.
- dominotw 4mo agoman i keep thinking. why cant india get into stuff like this. Do their own manhattan project to build factories and tech for this and immigrate experts with high salaries.
- Synthetic7346 4mo agoIndia doesn't have the coordination China does
- blackoil 4mo agoDuring Mao/cultural revolution for all the bad, two good things were great focus on K-12 education and reducing religious fundamentalism (curbing religious powerhouses). Both of them are now biting India, alongwith standard problems of corruption that plague most poor democracies.
- rescbr 4mo agoBoth issues also plague Brazil. At least we have the CIA to blame on religious fundamentalism.
- HDBaseT 4mo ago[flagged]
- raincom 4mo agoThanks to Indian constitution and other laws, incompetence is heavily praised and promoted. Go to any public high/elementary schools, go to any private colleges, it is rampant. It has taken three generations to produce these bad results. Of course, I am not saying that students are dumb. It is just that many smart kids in villages if given an opportunity, will leave India in a heart beat because they don't see a bright future for their future kids.
- spaceman_2020 4mo agoIndian bureaucracy thinks extremely short term. The state prioritizes extracting revenue over all else. So many baffling short-term decisions over everything from corporate tax breaks to a incentives for global events like Formula 1.l You really can’t expect the same bureaucratic setup to think in terms of the decade+ it would take to be competent at something like chips
- tpurves 4mo agoChina does not have sufficiently leading edge fab capabilities to fill DRAM demand.
- onlyrealcuzzo 4mo agoYet...
- joe_mamba 4mo ago>China is about to flood the market and prove this notion wrong. China is very far away from flooding the DRAM market.
- raincole 4mo agoNot just DRAM market, but the GPU market soon. China is the great equalizer of the world.
- gpm 4mo ago> Not just DRAM market, but the GPU market soon China doesn't have EUV fabs... They've pushed DUV impressively far... but until they get EUV working industrially (and reasonable timelines are at least 2-4 years for that) it shouldn't be possible for them to compete for that market. > China is the great equalizer of the world. China is hardly an egalitarian society...
- daemin 4mo agoNot an egalitarian society, but their companies have a honey-badger like mentality from what I have read, where they ruthlessly reduce costs and margin down past where non-Chinese companies cannot compete.
- bitmasher9 4mo agoThe future is here now, it’s just not evenly distributed. China will mass produce something to the point that it is widely distributed. That is how China acts as a great equalizer on a global scale. Another way China is a great equalizer is their willingness to do business with anyone that can pay.
- henriquez 4mo ago[dead]
- irishcoffee 4mo agoChina is willing to do business while giving zero fucks about the environment they are destroying and the global warming they are causing. It really blows my mind people support the china thing so much around here.
- KptMarchewa 4mo ago
- noosphr 4mo agoHelp us Xi Jinping, you're our only hope.
- alexwwang 4mo agoIt’s a horrible thought. Really horrible. You should come to China and work in those factories and mines for some years by yourself.
- noosphr 4mo agoYou should work in the Central African Republic coltan mines if you think anyone has a leg to stand on.
- alexwwang 4mo agoI am living in China and I think you cannot just talk with imagination.
- roenxi 4mo agoAnd are you going to enlighten us? What is life like working in a Chinese mine?
- alexwwang 4mo agoNot good. You may look for news online. If you can’t find anything, you might reflect why this happens.
- roenxi 4mo agoThere is not much information about conditions in the the mining industry in most countries, because the situation is unremarkable and comfortable. I put it to you that you have no idea what mining conditions are like in China and the situation is overall good.
- baq 4mo agoChina can afford and has the political will and power to centrally plan parts of the economy it feels like planning. Cars are obvious examples and if dram is next, western manufacturers should brace for impact.