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> up and down cycles have bankrupted the vast majority of players in the past Exactly, so what’s the incentive for anyone to sink half a billy into building ou
by jazzyjackson 5mo ago
> up and down cycles have bankrupted the vast majority of players in the past
Exactly, so what’s the incentive for anyone to sink half a billy into building out more capacity.
The existing players get to rest on their laurels and succeed whether or not the AI bubble busts.
- aurareturn 5mo agoThe incentive is that your 2 competitors will build more than you and gain market share on you if you are too conservative. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron all have to balance between capex spending, making as much profit as possible, and risk of bankruptcy.
- deadbabe 5mo agoSo are the new competitors currently in progress of starting up? Because it takes at least several years.
- aurareturn 5mo agoOnly Chinese companies have a chance. Problem is that China can’t buy EUV machines and the most advanced memory chips now use EUV. Heck, the US is now pressuring ASML to not sell even DUV machines to China, period.
- jononor 5mo agoYeqh that is a challenge. DDR5 and LPDDR5X are both manufacturable with DUV. So let's hope they still get access to that...
- jtbayly 5mo agoWhen costs are high enough, you can recoup that, if you have an appetite for risking the downturn.