Thanks, the graphics now makes sense for me. Father ~117 IQ, Mother ~121 IQ. ~40 embryos, distribution μ=~117, σ=~7. Numbers read by eye, don't believe they are

Thanks, the graphics now makes sense for me. Father ~117 IQ, Mother ~121 IQ. ~40 embryos, distribution μ=~117, σ=~7. Numbers read by eye, don't believe they are very accurate. Assuming my numbers are not very wrong, that embryo at ~135 IQ is like 3σ above in this family embryo distribution, that is 99.7% in this family embryo distribution. One in the 99.7% with only 40 samples is a little too lucky, but not unheard, specially if we assume that not everybody post the graphics. Assuming only the parents with a lucky case post the graphics. I suspect I'm underestimating σ in this family embryo distribution or under counting the embryos. It would be nice to have the raw data. --- Anyway, ignoring any ethical concern, I'm very skeptical in general, but in particular about some details. From a followup tweet https://x.com/GeneSmi96946389/status/2058290505004572762 https://x.com/GeneSmi96946389/status/2058290505004572762 > Herasight's IQ predictions correlate with real IQ at about 0.45 when you test them in real siblings: From https://herasight.substack.com/p/cogpgt https://herasight.substack.com/p/cogpgt > achieving a within-family correlation with latent general cognitive ability (‘g’) of 0.456 in UK Biobank adults and 0.448 when meta-analyzed with the adolescent ABCD cohort The problem with correlation is if you have a predictor, you add +10 to everyone or multiply it *1.1 and the new predictor has the same correlation, but with the new predictor everyone is a genius. So perhaps their predictor is good enough to pick that embryo inside that lot, but it may be very unreliable to know the real IQ. And "in real siblings" is very suspicions about how this predictor translates from a family lot to the general population. Also, they are using too many decimals, 0.456 and 0.448 is a red flag unless they have a huge lot of people in the test. And also, no embryo below 100% is extremely suspicious.