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The outcome is the same, though Fewer developers required to achieve the same things means a lot of people are going to be unemployed It also means that the p

The outcome is the same, though Fewer developers required to achieve the same things means a lot of people are going to be unemployed It also means that the people who remain will likely be paid less. Why would you pay a senior salary when you could pay a junior salary plus AI subscription and get "the same result"? I think Software Devs are in for a rough time. I've been doing this for 15 years now, and I'm not looking forward to it. I'm honestly thinking about re-skilling to a different industry. Even if it pays less, it's probably worth it to sit out this shitshow.

nyantaro1 5mo ago
I agree with most of your take, but I don't really think those left are going to be paid less. I am not one of them, but I don't see why they would be paid less.
- bluefirebrand 5mo ago
  Simple economics. There are fewer software developers required to achieve the same goals, so there are fewer jobs for software developers. That means there's an oversupply of software development labor. That means salaries for software developers will go down It's the same thing that happened to every other skilled profession that was automated in the past. That's why unions became a thing and they started busting heads until their employers paid them more. Edit: the only way I can see software developer salaries staying the same is if the amount of work available for them expands dramatically. Hypothetically if half of software developers are laid off and replaced by AI, there will need to be twice as many software development jobs in order for salaries to not go down Also keep in mind that even if salaries remain flat, inflation means you're making less.
joshwcomeau 5mo ago
> Fewer developers required to achieve the same things means a lot of people are going to be unemployed I don’t think that's a foregone conclusion. Every company I’ve worked for has had a huge list of tasks we'd do if we had more engineering resources. There's never been a shortage of worthwhile things we could do, it's always been ruthless prioritization to find the 10% of tasks that are the most important. Look up Jevons' Paradox. This is a thing that has happened a bunch of times before.

nyantaro1 5mo ago

I agree with most of your take, but I don't really think those left are going to be paid less. I am not one of them, but I don't see why they would be paid less.

bluefirebrand 5mo ago
Simple economics. There are fewer software developers required to achieve the same goals, so there are fewer jobs for software developers. That means there's an oversupply of software development labor. That means salaries for software developers will go down It's the same thing that happened to every other skilled profession that was automated in the past. That's why unions became a thing and they started busting heads until their employers paid them more. Edit: the only way I can see software developer salaries staying the same is if the amount of work available for them expands dramatically. Hypothetically if half of software developers are laid off and replaced by AI, there will need to be twice as many software development jobs in order for salaries to not go down Also keep in mind that even if salaries remain flat, inflation means you're making less.

joshwcomeau 5mo ago

> Fewer developers required to achieve the same things means a lot of people are going to be unemployed I don’t think that's a foregone conclusion. Every company I’ve worked for has had a huge list of tasks we'd do if we had more engineering resources. There's never been a shortage of worthwhile things we could do, it's always been ruthless prioritization to find the 10% of tasks that are the most important. Look up Jevons' Paradox. This is a thing that has happened a bunch of times before.