4 ms·

I don’t view long-term investing in productive companies as anything close to gambling.

hackyhacky 5mo ago
Which is fine, except that one can't know in advance which companies will continue to be productive..that's why it's gambling.
- sokoloff 5mo ago
  Feel free to avoid it if you think it’s gambling. https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-dat...
  - hackyhacky 5mo ago
    This does nothing to support your point.
    - sokoloff 5mo ago
      Studying that chart might reveal a way to long-term invest in a way that isn't anything like gambling. Or, I might be completely wrong and just been on an incredible white-hot-streak gambling for the last 30 years.
      - hackyhacky 5mo ago
        "I can win" is not a refutation of the claim that investment is gambling in any way that matters. The more relevant question is: does investment reward productivity (i.e. skill, strength, labor) or does it reward ownership (i.e. those who have capital will continue to accumulate capital)? By your own statement, it seems the latter. All of that money that you've "earned" with investment, where do you think it came from? What do you think you've done to deserve it? If investment is fundamentally risky, then it's an unsound basis for a stable society (i.e. it's gambling); if it's not risky, then you can't even argue that you deserve that money by having risked your own capital.
        sokoloff 5mo ago
        “Never lost money over any 20 year period” is a good enough refutation of investing in the S&P being gambling in any way that matters to allow me to act. Others might be more conservative and I hope they find and choose investments which match their style and risk-tolerance.
        hackyhacky 5mo ago
        > in any way that matters to allow me to act. I don't care how you act. That capitalism benefits the rich is not the subject of debate. This isn't /r/wallstreetbets What is at stake us that all value is created by labor; and that the capitalist class (of which you are a member) is allowed to profit despite not producing anything at all. That makes you a parasite. Isn't that what the rich say about the poor?
        WalterBright 5mo ago
        > What is at stake us that all value is created by labor That's the communist "Labor Theory of Value" which is nonsense. For example, spend the day digging a hole in your backyard. Did you create any value? Nope.
        hackyhacky 5mo ago
        > That's the communist "Labor Theory of Value" which is nonsense. Can you explain how it's nonsense? Can you think of a valuable product or service that you consume that is not produced by labor? > For example, spend the day digging a hole in your backyard. Did you create any value? Nope. I didn't say that all labor produces value; I said that all value is produced by labor. As a Smart Guy who Created His Own Software Company with No Capital At All, I'm sure you know enough about elementary logic to recognize the difference.
        WalterBright 5mo ago
        I recommend you start a commune. Or a business. It's a free country, there are no laws against it. > all value is produced by labor But you deny that the labor of the CEO produces value. Consider Microsoft. The company's stock was flat for 10 years. Then Nadella took over as CEO. The stock went up by a factor of 10. Same company, same employees, same intellectual property. The difference was Nadella. A similar story with Steve Jobs' second coming at Apple. And Steve Jobs at Pixar. There are innumerable such stories. It's similar to military generals. An army's victory or defeat is pretty much entirely due to the general.

Which is fine, except that one can't know in advance which companies will continue to be productive..that's why it's gambling.

sokoloff 5mo ago
Feel free to avoid it if you think it’s gambling. https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-dat...
- hackyhacky 5mo ago
  This does nothing to support your point.
  - sokoloff 5mo ago
    Studying that chart might reveal a way to long-term invest in a way that isn't anything like gambling. Or, I might be completely wrong and just been on an incredible white-hot-streak gambling for the last 30 years.
    - hackyhacky 5mo ago
      "I can win" is not a refutation of the claim that investment is gambling in any way that matters. The more relevant question is: does investment reward productivity (i.e. skill, strength, labor) or does it reward ownership (i.e. those who have capital will continue to accumulate capital)? By your own statement, it seems the latter. All of that money that you've "earned" with investment, where do you think it came from? What do you think you've done to deserve it? If investment is fundamentally risky, then it's an unsound basis for a stable society (i.e. it's gambling); if it's not risky, then you can't even argue that you deserve that money by having risked your own capital.
      - sokoloff 5mo ago
        “Never lost money over any 20 year period” is a good enough refutation of investing in the S&P being gambling in any way that matters to allow me to act. Others might be more conservative and I hope they find and choose investments which match their style and risk-tolerance.
        hackyhacky 5mo ago
        > in any way that matters to allow me to act. I don't care how you act. That capitalism benefits the rich is not the subject of debate. This isn't /r/wallstreetbets What is at stake us that all value is created by labor; and that the capitalist class (of which you are a member) is allowed to profit despite not producing anything at all. That makes you a parasite. Isn't that what the rich say about the poor?
        WalterBright 5mo ago
        > What is at stake us that all value is created by labor That's the communist "Labor Theory of Value" which is nonsense. For example, spend the day digging a hole in your backyard. Did you create any value? Nope.
        hackyhacky 5mo ago
        > That's the communist "Labor Theory of Value" which is nonsense. Can you explain how it's nonsense? Can you think of a valuable product or service that you consume that is not produced by labor? > For example, spend the day digging a hole in your backyard. Did you create any value? Nope. I didn't say that all labor produces value; I said that all value is produced by labor. As a Smart Guy who Created His Own Software Company with No Capital At All, I'm sure you know enough about elementary logic to recognize the difference.
        WalterBright 5mo ago
        I recommend you start a commune. Or a business. It's a free country, there are no laws against it. > all value is produced by labor But you deny that the labor of the CEO produces value. Consider Microsoft. The company's stock was flat for 10 years. Then Nadella took over as CEO. The stock went up by a factor of 10. Same company, same employees, same intellectual property. The difference was Nadella. A similar story with Steve Jobs' second coming at Apple. And Steve Jobs at Pixar. There are innumerable such stories. It's similar to military generals. An army's victory or defeat is pretty much entirely due to the general.