4 ms·

Predicting the 2026 Bristol Bay and Kodiak Salmon Runs

13 points by mooreds 6mo ago

progbits 6mo ago
AI slop
- deviouspanda 6mo ago
  I mean, you're not wrong. I did use AI to run the analysis, and it is some marketing-oriented content that I'm using to learn how to do B2C marketing, since I'm a guy who know how to sell $200K of software engineering services, but hasn't the first clue how to sell 1,000 copies of a free (IAP) app. So, I don't disagree. The app's worth a look, though, if you're fishing in AK. It's definitely not AI slop. And it's got 25 years of count data in it that you can muck around with.
Aeroi 6mo ago
Cool. I fished Kodiak and Chignik, and was in Bristol Bay in 2015 and 2016. That first summer I studied historical escapement values to try to predict where to fish. I found almost zero correlation when targeting areas in Kodiak based on historical values, but I’m sure with better data and more experience there’s real alpha to be unlocked. Would be fun to model for some with more stat experience than me. The more interesting problem to me was trying to understand how the pricing actually worked. Global macro events felt almost completely disconnected from what fishermen were paid, especially with the opaque October price adjustments from the canneries. There were a lot of structural advantages for the corporations in that business. I came away thinking that vertically integrated processing, distribution, and retail was a much smarter place to be than catching the fish itself.
- denimnerd42 6mo ago
  I sport fished Kodiak for halibut and salmon in 2009. what a crazy place to fish. the abundance of fish was incredible
- deviouspanda 5mo ago
  This is a very accurate statement. The is little variance in the date-based sets of data, at least when looking at things like the run's mid-point, and the start of the upswings. There is a little bit more intel found in the series totals when looking at salmon life cycles, too. It's a tough set of data to understand the overall trends within.

13 points by mooreds 6mo ago

progbits 6mo ago

AI slop

deviouspanda 6mo ago
I mean, you're not wrong. I did use AI to run the analysis, and it is some marketing-oriented content that I'm using to learn how to do B2C marketing, since I'm a guy who know how to sell $200K of software engineering services, but hasn't the first clue how to sell 1,000 copies of a free (IAP) app. So, I don't disagree. The app's worth a look, though, if you're fishing in AK. It's definitely not AI slop. And it's got 25 years of count data in it that you can muck around with.

Aeroi 6mo ago

Cool. I fished Kodiak and Chignik, and was in Bristol Bay in 2015 and 2016. That first summer I studied historical escapement values to try to predict where to fish. I found almost zero correlation when targeting areas in Kodiak based on historical values, but I’m sure with better data and more experience there’s real alpha to be unlocked. Would be fun to model for some with more stat experience than me. The more interesting problem to me was trying to understand how the pricing actually worked. Global macro events felt almost completely disconnected from what fishermen were paid, especially with the opaque October price adjustments from the canneries. There were a lot of structural advantages for the corporations in that business. I came away thinking that vertically integrated processing, distribution, and retail was a much smarter place to be than catching the fish itself.

denimnerd42 6mo ago
I sport fished Kodiak for halibut and salmon in 2009. what a crazy place to fish. the abundance of fish was incredible
deviouspanda 5mo ago
This is a very accurate statement. The is little variance in the date-based sets of data, at least when looking at things like the run's mid-point, and the start of the upswings. There is a little bit more intel found in the series totals when looking at salmon life cycles, too. It's a tough set of data to understand the overall trends within.