It's simpler when looking at prediction markets because of bounded payoffs and the zero-sum nature, so these are pure trading gains. In equity markets, you hav

It's simpler when looking at prediction markets because of bounded payoffs and the zero-sum nature, so these are pure trading gains. In equity markets, you have both the trading and investment components to account for. Market makers like Citadel don't invest; they aim to exit positions as quickly as possible to minimize risk and capital requirements. Long-term investors commit capital to risky assets and are compensated with a risk premium (expected to be positive, but it can turn out to be negative). Usually, the "cost" of liquidity paid by long-term investors is tiny related to the overall expected returns. In prediction markets, you don't have that.