4 ms·
Don't forget the threat of Ebola, hantavirus, Taiwan war
by mgh2 5mo ago
Don't forget the threat of Ebola, hantavirus, Taiwan war
- jurgenburgen 5mo agoThe Taiwan war that the world is sleepwalking into is going to wipe out so much chip capacity that the current inflation will look like a blip.
- rationalist 5mo agoWhile it's a possibility, do you believe it is likely enough in the very near future to the point where you are betting on it? Perhaps shorting TSMC? If I did so when I first thought about it, I would be broke by now.
- MagicMoonlight 5mo agoThe point to short will be when the Chinese army forms up. With Ukraine we saw it. It was incredibly obvious. Hilariously the Ukrainians themselves saw the huge army on their border and told everyone it wasn’t going to happen and refused to build any defences. Taiwan will be the same. But the satellites will give everyone enough warning.
- theshackleford 5mo ago[dead]
- Ray20 5mo ago> Hilariously the Ukrainians themselves saw the huge army on their border and told everyone it wasn’t going to happen and refused to build any defences. In terms of gaining political support, being a victim in the modern world is very advantageous. The more of your civilians die unjustly, the more the media will portray you as a great and brave leader. There is nothing hilarious about this, only cynicism of the leaders of the country.
- pjc50 5mo ago> the Ukrainians themselves saw the huge army on their border and told everyone it wasn’t going to happen and refused to build any defences You're going to have to cite that, because Ukraine was already in the low-intensity Donbass conflict when the most recent invasion happened. But yes, you can't hide an invasion fleet. The Chinese navy only has three aircraft carriers. They've recently had high level purges in the PLA. Invading now would be a disaster for them. But you never know when a disaster is going to get ordered for political reasons.
- rationalist 5mo agoThe Chinese also have at least a few landing ships that they've been practicing with. I'm not sure how many aircraft carriers they need for Taiwan.
- jurgenburgen 5mo agoAt the time it did seem like mobilization came very late, after the invasion already began. But like the other commenters pointed out they did prepare for it and a few more days of mobilization wouldn’t have changed the outcome.
- account42 5mo agoUkraine expected treaties to mean something. The world now knows better.
- _heimdall 5mo agoTo be fair my understanding at the time was that Ukraine was well aware the invasion was coming and the government was publicly making claims that helped avoid panic and allowed them to move military assets around more easily.
- tokai 5mo ago>Hilariously the Ukrainians themselves saw the huge army on their border and told everyone it wasn’t going to happen and refused to build any defences. Not the full truth. Leadership said publicly that there was nothing to worry about, but the AFU dispersed assets, distributed suppiles and ammunition, and took a defensive stance before the invasion happened.
- array_key_first 5mo agoI'm sure leadership in Ukraine was aware of an impeding war, but naturally that's not the type of thing you're gonna tell your citizens. It doesn't help anything; it would only cause panic, migration, and resource hoarding.
- jurgenburgen 5mo agoNot shorting TSMC, I’ve lost too much money shorting and it’s just too easy to lose because of timing even if you eventually are correct. I’ve overweighted EU weapons manufacturers because a Taiwan war will be coupled with an expansion of the war in Europe. With the US busy trying to fight China, Russia will for sure make a bigger move in Europe. European defense budgets will 10x.
- mft_ 5mo agoBig picture, I think you're right that there will be continued and increased EU spending on weapons. But... Russia is basically at full capacity just standing still (or losing slowly) in Ukraine. Do they even have the ability (people, weapons, fuel, money, logistics) to significantly expand the war further?
- jurgenburgen 5mo agoI hope they don’t but also worry that China is willing to fight to the last Russian just to keep Europe busy.
- _heimdall 5mo agoAre you expecting that China invades Taiwan and destroys chip production? Or cuts the world off and keeps the supply for itself?
- kccqzy 5mo agoIf China were to invade successfully, Taiwan chip production will self-destruct just to prevent it from falling into Chinese hands.