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I love what Elon Musk is doing, and usually he makes pretty reasonable assumptions, but I think he's wrong when he says "most mid-40 somethings" can afford $500

I love what Elon Musk is doing, and usually he makes pretty reasonable assumptions, but I think he's wrong when he says "most mid-40 somethings" can afford $500,000. Being able to afford a $500k house is different than having $500,000. Houses can be mortgaged for 30 years, but if you're going to Mars, you're not going to have an income and can't pay back that loan. I don't think a lot of 40 somethings have $500k laying around.

chimere 14y ago
When I've heard Elon talk about this before, his idea is that people interested in moving to Mars would actually sell their house and Earthly possessions in order to pay for the ride. They won't be needing all that junk anymore anyway. Once you're prepared to sell all of your assets, then having a net worth of $500k is essentially the same as being able to afford $500k.
- qbrass 14y ago
  You're assuming nobody else wants to go to Mars, and you can actually offload all your junk before the market is flooded with the crap everyone else is trying to pawn off to leave this planet.
  - rbanffy 14y ago
    I don't think the crowd willing to sell all their assets and buy a one-way ticket to a planet where the odds of dying of old age are astonishingly small is large enough to collapse an economy. Don't get me wrong - I'd love to go to Mars myself, but I wouldn't like to make such a long-term commitment without a good chance not to die there. And that doesn't even include my family.
    - qbrass 14y ago
      I doubt it would collapse the economy, but it's worth keeping in mind that if you're actually planning to go, you might want to beat the rush when it comes to getting the money together.
cryptoz 14y ago
What? Why wouldn't you have an income? That's a silly assumption. The Martian colonies won't be full of jobless bums as there will be lots of work to do. A prime export to Earth will probably be software, for example.
- lutze 14y ago
  This is a pretty big assumption, why would it be a prime export? What makes Mars so great for producing software that would cover the added expense of firing a programmer all the way there in a rocket?
  - cryptoz 14y ago
    It's virtually free to export software to Earth while it would cost millions to export anything physical. Also, I think you misunderstood me. Its not supposed to cover some cost; the presumed developer chose to go to Mars rather than stay on Earth and buy a house. He pays for the privilege of living on Mars. It's not that Mars is spectacular for building software but rather that's a very cost effective export once you're there.
    - lutze 14y ago
      It's even freer to leave the programmer here and not have to export at all.... There's no way a guy on Mars could compete on costs. I think you're also underestimating how much of a premium bandwidth will be too.
      - cryptoz 14y ago
        > It's even freer to leave the programmer here and not have to export at all.... I don't get it. At all. Let's use me as an example: I'm currently in my 20s, a software developer with his mind and heart set on Mars. I'm Elon's target market, basically. So let's say I spend my money to go to Mars and fulfill my life's dreams and goals. You're suggesting that I shouldn't go, because 'git push' and 'git pull' are more expensive? Hah. Ridiculous! > There's no way a guy on Mars could compete on costs. I think you're also underestimating how much of a premium bandwidth will be too. No, I don't think so. Latency is very high, but data rate isn't going to be all that bad - in fact, it might be spectacular as the medium of transit is the near-vacuum of space. Though I agree to a certain extent that costs will generally be higher when building software for Earth. But slow down here, because this was just one example of a segment of a potential Martian economy. We clearly are not going to predict all the details this far out, and we're already debating about the data transmission costs. I think the point here is to take a step back and realize that Martians would certainly have a lot to do, would have their own small (though growing) economy, and that exports to Earth will likely be mostly digital due to shipping costs for physical objects.
ianstallings 14y ago
Well there actually are ways of making money on Mars, even though they rely on the wealth of the Earth until Mars actually has an economy. Mainly advertising. I can imagine a human on Mars having a "blog" that would be fairly captivating to a lot of humans. Those humans could see advertising and the price would probably fall around American Super Bowl levels. Think about it, having 1/2 Billion humans checking up on one person on mars is actually pretty reasonable. Those same eyeballs can hear a message and that message can be sold to the highest bidder, making the whole venture a success. Similar to how past adventurers would sell their stories upon return to cities. That's just one possible job. Never mind the actual work that needs to be done by humans on Mars. Those people would be paid by humans on Earth. Just like astronauts of today. If I was a rich man I would certainly pay a human on Mars to explore.
- to3m 14y ago
  Well, I think it most likely that the actual work that has to be done on Mars would be done by the people there for free, because if they don't do it, they'll die... Even in the longer run, I think it implausible that anybody on Mars would be doing anything at all that people on Earth would be interested in, once the initial excitement has worn off. And I think it more implausible yet that the Earth people will be interested in paying for it! Transporting physical materials would be impractical, even if you were prepared for the gargantuan expense, and while you could have some kind of remote working outpost, it's unclear how much use this would be to anybody. It's hard enough when people are only the other side of the world! - it's not going to be any easier if they're 50,000,000km away, with no phone connection, no postal service, and a ping time of at least 5 minutes. As always, events may yet prove me wrong... but I don't expect them to.
paulsutter 14y ago
He's only expecting 1 in 100,000 to make the trip. He never said that most fortysomethings had $500k lying around. He said most fortysomethings in developed economies -could- pull the money together (to me, that implies if they really put their mind to it). He's only assuming that 1 in 100,000 -will- do it. Sure we could quibble about just exactly how hard for a given person to pull the money together, but I don't think there's a lot of argument that 1 in 100,000 would be able to do it.
viviantan 14y ago
I think he's envisioning this as a one-way trip: $500k for a house in California OR settle down on Mars. In that case, it's actually an affordable price tag. Even if EM realizes his reusable rockets, I imagine the primary purpose would be for transporting supplies, etc. rather than frequently shuttling people Earth <---> Mars. Just think of immigrants from the early 1900's who uprooted their entire families and got on a boat to America. That was a one-way journey in most cases until international travel became more affordable and more commonplace. Interplanetary travel, when it happens, will likely take the same pattern.

chimere 14y ago

When I've heard Elon talk about this before, his idea is that people interested in moving to Mars would actually sell their house and Earthly possessions in order to pay for the ride. They won't be needing all that junk anymore anyway. Once you're prepared to sell all of your assets, then having a net worth of $500k is essentially the same as being able to afford $500k.

qbrass 14y ago
You're assuming nobody else wants to go to Mars, and you can actually offload all your junk before the market is flooded with the crap everyone else is trying to pawn off to leave this planet.
- rbanffy 14y ago
  I don't think the crowd willing to sell all their assets and buy a one-way ticket to a planet where the odds of dying of old age are astonishingly small is large enough to collapse an economy. Don't get me wrong - I'd love to go to Mars myself, but I wouldn't like to make such a long-term commitment without a good chance not to die there. And that doesn't even include my family.
  - qbrass 14y ago
    I doubt it would collapse the economy, but it's worth keeping in mind that if you're actually planning to go, you might want to beat the rush when it comes to getting the money together.

cryptoz 14y ago

What? Why wouldn't you have an income? That's a silly assumption. The Martian colonies won't be full of jobless bums as there will be lots of work to do. A prime export to Earth will probably be software, for example.

lutze 14y ago
This is a pretty big assumption, why would it be a prime export? What makes Mars so great for producing software that would cover the added expense of firing a programmer all the way there in a rocket?
- cryptoz 14y ago
  It's virtually free to export software to Earth while it would cost millions to export anything physical. Also, I think you misunderstood me. Its not supposed to cover some cost; the presumed developer chose to go to Mars rather than stay on Earth and buy a house. He pays for the privilege of living on Mars. It's not that Mars is spectacular for building software but rather that's a very cost effective export once you're there.
  - lutze 14y ago
    It's even freer to leave the programmer here and not have to export at all.... There's no way a guy on Mars could compete on costs. I think you're also underestimating how much of a premium bandwidth will be too.
    - cryptoz 14y ago
      > It's even freer to leave the programmer here and not have to export at all.... I don't get it. At all. Let's use me as an example: I'm currently in my 20s, a software developer with his mind and heart set on Mars. I'm Elon's target market, basically. So let's say I spend my money to go to Mars and fulfill my life's dreams and goals. You're suggesting that I shouldn't go, because 'git push' and 'git pull' are more expensive? Hah. Ridiculous! > There's no way a guy on Mars could compete on costs. I think you're also underestimating how much of a premium bandwidth will be too. No, I don't think so. Latency is very high, but data rate isn't going to be all that bad - in fact, it might be spectacular as the medium of transit is the near-vacuum of space. Though I agree to a certain extent that costs will generally be higher when building software for Earth. But slow down here, because this was just one example of a segment of a potential Martian economy. We clearly are not going to predict all the details this far out, and we're already debating about the data transmission costs. I think the point here is to take a step back and realize that Martians would certainly have a lot to do, would have their own small (though growing) economy, and that exports to Earth will likely be mostly digital due to shipping costs for physical objects.

ianstallings 14y ago

Well there actually are ways of making money on Mars, even though they rely on the wealth of the Earth until Mars actually has an economy. Mainly advertising. I can imagine a human on Mars having a "blog" that would be fairly captivating to a lot of humans. Those humans could see advertising and the price would probably fall around American Super Bowl levels. Think about it, having 1/2 Billion humans checking up on one person on mars is actually pretty reasonable. Those same eyeballs can hear a message and that message can be sold to the highest bidder, making the whole venture a success. Similar to how past adventurers would sell their stories upon return to cities. That's just one possible job. Never mind the actual work that needs to be done by humans on Mars. Those people would be paid by humans on Earth. Just like astronauts of today. If I was a rich man I would certainly pay a human on Mars to explore.

to3m 14y ago
Well, I think it most likely that the actual work that has to be done on Mars would be done by the people there for free, because if they don't do it, they'll die... Even in the longer run, I think it implausible that anybody on Mars would be doing anything at all that people on Earth would be interested in, once the initial excitement has worn off. And I think it more implausible yet that the Earth people will be interested in paying for it! Transporting physical materials would be impractical, even if you were prepared for the gargantuan expense, and while you could have some kind of remote working outpost, it's unclear how much use this would be to anybody. It's hard enough when people are only the other side of the world! - it's not going to be any easier if they're 50,000,000km away, with no phone connection, no postal service, and a ping time of at least 5 minutes. As always, events may yet prove me wrong... but I don't expect them to.

paulsutter 14y ago

He's only expecting 1 in 100,000 to make the trip. He never said that most fortysomethings had $500k lying around. He said most fortysomethings in developed economies -could- pull the money together (to me, that implies if they really put their mind to it). He's only assuming that 1 in 100,000 -will- do it. Sure we could quibble about just exactly how hard for a given person to pull the money together, but I don't think there's a lot of argument that 1 in 100,000 would be able to do it.

viviantan 14y ago

I think he's envisioning this as a one-way trip: $500k for a house in California OR settle down on Mars. In that case, it's actually an affordable price tag. Even if EM realizes his reusable rockets, I imagine the primary purpose would be for transporting supplies, etc. rather than frequently shuttling people Earth <---> Mars. Just think of immigrants from the early 1900's who uprooted their entire families and got on a boat to America. That was a one-way journey in most cases until international travel became more affordable and more commonplace. Interplanetary travel, when it happens, will likely take the same pattern.