4 ms·

> There is no interest, as he was venture funded not debt funded. Who is "he"? SpaceX has $20bn of debt and $9bn in "other financing" corresponding to "obligat

by kgwgk 5mo ago

> There is no interest, as he was venture funded not debt funded. Who is "he"? SpaceX has $20bn of debt and $9bn in "other financing" corresponding to "obligations related to certain AI infrastructure assets recorded as failed sale-leaseback transactions."

burnerRhodov3 5mo ago
Edit: Page 122 of the S-1. They are paying SOFR + 0.75%. So around 5.5% on the $20B. I'll keep the below for integrity sake: Well, i'm sure SpaceX bought Xai using some kind of prefered share/debt financing, but that's not to say that XAI had the original debt financing. We can never know what the exact details, and the exact financing is on this debt. Maybe it's tied to Elon's Tesla Shares, Maybe it's tied to a convertible, maybe it is actual "loans" from a bank. Even at $9b in debt, and you naivly assume they are paying 10% (Def not 20% as OP claimed), you are paying $900m a year, for the entirety of xAi. Including that in the calculations to rent out the entire compute is folly. Not only is 900M not directly attributed to c1, cause it's split between c1, c2 and all the training runs, but you can never verify the interest. And even then, one month of this deal pays for the whole year of interest expense. So go ahead and lower my estimate by 10%... doesn't make a difference.
- kgwgk 5mo ago
  > We can never know what the exact details If only there was some SEC filing available disclosing additional information about the 6-months $20bn bridge loan which was on the news four weeks ago…
  - burnerRhodov3 5mo ago
    oh, nice! thanks for this. This confirms spaceX has $20B at a SOFR + 0.75%. So around 5%-5.5%. Found on page 122 of the S-1. I assume they will retire all debt with the $50B raised from the IPO, plus have $30B to... dominate with starship. If starship is around $100m per launch right now, they can launch 300 ships with the IPO. or 30,000T in orbit.
    - hvb2 5mo ago
      > If starship is around $100m per launch right now, they can launch 300 ships with the IPO. or 30,000T in orbit. Uh, starship is still a development program. There's 1 launch pad right now able to launch V3. No starship has flown with an actual live payload. The starlinks going out the PEZ dispenser are probably the only thing launching on it anytime soon. Basically, Starship launching thousands of tons to orbit isn't constrained by money but by time.
      - burnerRhodov3 5mo ago
        we will see tomorrow, won't we :) But you are right to call out the launch infrastructure as the true bottleneck. They have 3 pads currently under development. So in 6-9 months they'll have 4 operational pads. Also, how do they heat tiles hold up? How fast can they catch, refurbish and relaunch is what remains. I'm confident, and will be putting my money where my mouth is (By investing in the IPO) that they will have useful orbital payloads this year.
        Curosinono 5mo ago
        But for what payload? Before Starlink we only send up like 1k ton of payload. Starlink is the only reason why it jumped to 3k tons. So SpaceX builds all of this to send its own stuff up which is basically only Starlink and in the future its own competition (amazon and leo). For something which is only consumed by 10 million customers right now and they increased the price for starlink which makes it even less competitive. And Spacex has to send up Starlink every 5 years which keeps revenue low and Starlink is hard llinear growth as one Starlink Satelit can't handle that much traffic. If his IPO makes all of that money, he will entertain us with funneling billions into a system which will then deliver a handful people onto mars if even. A person on mars doesn't make money, it costs money. Whats the goal here?
        burnerRhodov3 5mo ago
        uh.. orbital data centers? Are we on the same page? 1.25B a month for half a gigawatt, with it rising up to 1g is the deal they just made with anthropic (total deal size 2-2.5B a month). Starship cost is probably something like (y = (400m - 20m*(0.85)^t + 20m, where t is times starship is launched. At 30 launches, they are close to their target of $20m. Falcon 9 has launched 649 times, they've resused the same booster 34 times. a single nvidia NVL72 rack's peak performance is around 135w so 1gw (1,000,000 kW /135 kW per rack‚ is 7,407. each rack weighs around 1.47 metric tons. so you have 7407/1.47t = 10,888.29t+ 15,243.606 (plus 15,243.606 is for an additional 140% for foldable radiator and solar panels... so 26,131.9t to orbit for 1gw of compute. each starship can do 100T, so 26,131.9t/100 gives us 261.32 starships. given the cost curve earlier: Total Cost = ∫₀²⁶¹ (380 * 0.85ᵗ + 20) dt Total Cost = F(261) - F(0) ≈ 5,220.00 - (-2,338.19) ≈ 7,558.19 So $7.5B for the required tonnage to space. 3 million to $3.5 for each rack is 7407 * 3.5m = 25,924.5b. + 7,558.19 is 33b. if we can rent 1gw for $2-3b a month we get buyback in 13ish months? Literally best business model ever. if they last 5 years, each gw is worth $160-180B for the cost of $33B. once block 4 comes out with 200t... AGI ;)

by kgwgk 5mo ago

burnerRhodov3 5mo ago

Edit: Page 122 of the S-1. They are paying SOFR + 0.75%. So around 5.5% on the $20B. I'll keep the below for integrity sake: Well, i'm sure SpaceX bought Xai using some kind of prefered share/debt financing, but that's not to say that XAI had the original debt financing. We can never know what the exact details, and the exact financing is on this debt. Maybe it's tied to Elon's Tesla Shares, Maybe it's tied to a convertible, maybe it is actual "loans" from a bank. Even at $9b in debt, and you naivly assume they are paying 10% (Def not 20% as OP claimed), you are paying $900m a year, for the entirety of xAi. Including that in the calculations to rent out the entire compute is folly. Not only is 900M not directly attributed to c1, cause it's split between c1, c2 and all the training runs, but you can never verify the interest. And even then, one month of this deal pays for the whole year of interest expense. So go ahead and lower my estimate by 10%... doesn't make a difference.

kgwgk 5mo ago
> We can never know what the exact details If only there was some SEC filing available disclosing additional information about the 6-months $20bn bridge loan which was on the news four weeks ago…
- burnerRhodov3 5mo ago
  oh, nice! thanks for this. This confirms spaceX has $20B at a SOFR + 0.75%. So around 5%-5.5%. Found on page 122 of the S-1. I assume they will retire all debt with the $50B raised from the IPO, plus have $30B to... dominate with starship. If starship is around $100m per launch right now, they can launch 300 ships with the IPO. or 30,000T in orbit.
  - hvb2 5mo ago
    > If starship is around $100m per launch right now, they can launch 300 ships with the IPO. or 30,000T in orbit. Uh, starship is still a development program. There's 1 launch pad right now able to launch V3. No starship has flown with an actual live payload. The starlinks going out the PEZ dispenser are probably the only thing launching on it anytime soon. Basically, Starship launching thousands of tons to orbit isn't constrained by money but by time.
    - burnerRhodov3 5mo ago
      we will see tomorrow, won't we :) But you are right to call out the launch infrastructure as the true bottleneck. They have 3 pads currently under development. So in 6-9 months they'll have 4 operational pads. Also, how do they heat tiles hold up? How fast can they catch, refurbish and relaunch is what remains. I'm confident, and will be putting my money where my mouth is (By investing in the IPO) that they will have useful orbital payloads this year.
      - Curosinono 5mo ago
        But for what payload? Before Starlink we only send up like 1k ton of payload. Starlink is the only reason why it jumped to 3k tons. So SpaceX builds all of this to send its own stuff up which is basically only Starlink and in the future its own competition (amazon and leo). For something which is only consumed by 10 million customers right now and they increased the price for starlink which makes it even less competitive. And Spacex has to send up Starlink every 5 years which keeps revenue low and Starlink is hard llinear growth as one Starlink Satelit can't handle that much traffic. If his IPO makes all of that money, he will entertain us with funneling billions into a system which will then deliver a handful people onto mars if even. A person on mars doesn't make money, it costs money. Whats the goal here?
        burnerRhodov3 5mo ago
        uh.. orbital data centers? Are we on the same page? 1.25B a month for half a gigawatt, with it rising up to 1g is the deal they just made with anthropic (total deal size 2-2.5B a month). Starship cost is probably something like (y = (400m - 20m*(0.85)^t + 20m, where t is times starship is launched. At 30 launches, they are close to their target of $20m. Falcon 9 has launched 649 times, they've resused the same booster 34 times. a single nvidia NVL72 rack's peak performance is around 135w so 1gw (1,000,000 kW /135 kW per rack‚ is 7,407. each rack weighs around 1.47 metric tons. so you have 7407/1.47t = 10,888.29t+ 15,243.606 (plus 15,243.606 is for an additional 140% for foldable radiator and solar panels... so 26,131.9t to orbit for 1gw of compute. each starship can do 100T, so 26,131.9t/100 gives us 261.32 starships. given the cost curve earlier: Total Cost = ∫₀²⁶¹ (380 * 0.85ᵗ + 20) dt Total Cost = F(261) - F(0) ≈ 5,220.00 - (-2,338.19) ≈ 7,558.19 So $7.5B for the required tonnage to space. 3 million to $3.5 for each rack is 7407 * 3.5m = 25,924.5b. + 7,558.19 is 33b. if we can rent 1gw for $2-3b a month we get buyback in 13ish months? Literally best business model ever. if they last 5 years, each gw is worth $160-180B for the cost of $33B. once block 4 comes out with 200t... AGI ;)