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I don't see a scenario where it really makes sense to be a frontier lab long term. Eventually model quality will plateau then you distill and get 90% for 10% or

I don't see a scenario where it really makes sense to be a frontier lab long term. Eventually model quality will plateau then you distill and get 90% for 10% or less cost.

twoodfin 5mo ago
Over the past 6 months, Anthropic has made more waves as a product company than a frontier lab.
- amazingamazing 5mo ago
  Cant wait to see their books once they IPO
hungryhobbit 5mo ago
General AI is that scenario. The investor dream is that their horse hits general AI first, patents it (or otherwise somehow stops the competition from hitting it), and then reaps the massive benefits. I'm not saying it's a likely scenario, but I genuinely believe a big percentage of AI investment revolves around that (or similar) scenarios.
usef- 5mo ago
This might come down to when you expect plateau to happen. You could have said similar about transistor density many decades ago. (I'm not denying it could happen next year for all we know. But we simply don't know, and from what I hear from researchers the breadth of ideas we've tried are still small)
baq 5mo ago
Opus and GPT are so different there’s room for both and I wouldn’t be ignoring Gemini even if it isn’t ahem great at coding, since it’s quite obviously very good otherwise. In the times before you also would rather have very smart people working together instead of one very smart dude alone even if he had an identical twin.
- olmo23 5mo ago
  My go-to usecase for Gemini is summarizing Youtube tech-influencers.
  - ReptileMan 5mo ago
    How do you do it?
    - olmo23 5mo ago
      I basically open up a new conversation, copy paste a link to Theo's latest video and ask it to summarize his yapping :p
      - renticulous 5mo ago
        I copy paste the transcript because sometimes youtube has blocked AIs from scrapping
        sgerenser 5mo ago
        Would YouTube really block Gemini? I thought summarizing (or asking questions about) YouTube videos was one of their advertised features.
        renticulous 5mo ago
        I don't like youtube gemini summaries. whenever I have asked gemini about detailed comprehensive report on a long hour podcasts, it always refuses. hence claude is my go report generation AI.
energy123 5mo ago
Plateau on a saturated benchmark where an asymptote to 100% is mathematically baked in? Or plateau as in it won't solve any Millennium Prize problems within the next decade?

I don't see a scenario where it really makes sense to be a frontier lab long term. Eventually model quality will plateau then you distill and get 90% for 10% or less cost.

twoodfin 5mo ago

Over the past 6 months, Anthropic has made more waves as a product company than a frontier lab.

amazingamazing 5mo ago
Cant wait to see their books once they IPO

hungryhobbit 5mo ago

General AI is that scenario. The investor dream is that their horse hits general AI first, patents it (or otherwise somehow stops the competition from hitting it), and then reaps the massive benefits. I'm not saying it's a likely scenario, but I genuinely believe a big percentage of AI investment revolves around that (or similar) scenarios.

usef- 5mo ago

This might come down to when you expect plateau to happen. You could have said similar about transistor density many decades ago. (I'm not denying it could happen next year for all we know. But we simply don't know, and from what I hear from researchers the breadth of ideas we've tried are still small)

baq 5mo ago

Opus and GPT are so different there’s room for both and I wouldn’t be ignoring Gemini even if it isn’t ahem great at coding, since it’s quite obviously very good otherwise. In the times before you also would rather have very smart people working together instead of one very smart dude alone even if he had an identical twin.

olmo23 5mo ago
My go-to usecase for Gemini is summarizing Youtube tech-influencers.
- ReptileMan 5mo ago
  How do you do it?
  - olmo23 5mo ago
    I basically open up a new conversation, copy paste a link to Theo's latest video and ask it to summarize his yapping :p
    - renticulous 5mo ago
      I copy paste the transcript because sometimes youtube has blocked AIs from scrapping
      - sgerenser 5mo ago
        Would YouTube really block Gemini? I thought summarizing (or asking questions about) YouTube videos was one of their advertised features.
        renticulous 5mo ago
        I don't like youtube gemini summaries. whenever I have asked gemini about detailed comprehensive report on a long hour podcasts, it always refuses. hence claude is my go report generation AI.

energy123 5mo ago

Plateau on a saturated benchmark where an asymptote to 100% is mathematically baked in? Or plateau as in it won't solve any Millennium Prize problems within the next decade?