Yes, they forecast thousands of U.S. elections and thousands of sports games, and their forecasts had excellent calibration—e.g., events they said would happen

Yes, they forecast thousands of U.S. elections and thousands of sports games, and their forecasts had excellent calibration—e.g., events they said would happen 30% of the time actually happened about 30% of the time. https://archive.is/sId82 https://archive.is/sId82 https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/checking-our-work-data https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/checking-our-work-data