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The summer of Trillion dollar IPO’s is upon us. OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX Will they eat each others potential capital appetite? Or is there just that much layi

The summer of Trillion dollar IPO’s is upon us. OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX Will they eat each others potential capital appetite? Or is there just that much laying around for them all to gobble up the bag?

davey48016 5mo ago
It depends at least partially on how much they're going to float. I think SpaceX is only planning about a 4% float, so even at $1.5T they only need around $60B. Which is a drop in the bucket. EDIT - but that's just the IPO, I wasn't even thinking about how much insiders will want to sell after the lockup ends...
- ecommerceguy 5mo ago
  Is 100+ FPE the new normal?
  - einrealist 5mo ago
    Must be retail investors believing: big number == good.
  - phkahler 5mo ago
    The valuation just needs to be high enough to get into an index, then the 401K plans start buying the shares automatically.
- deleted 5mo ago
  [deleted]
aurareturn 5mo ago
I think one of them is not like the other. I would invest in OpenAI or Anthropic or both but I doubt I'd invest in SpaceX.
- RandallBrown 5mo ago
  Isn't SpaceX the only one of those that actually makes money?
  - aurareturn 5mo ago
    Personally, I don't worry about profitability in the short term. If Anthropic is adding $15b ARR every single month, and their gross margins are 50%+ (per Dario), profits are inevitable. The thing I'm most worried about with SpaceX is bundling X.com, xAI with it. I don't want to invest in X.com nor xAI. Lastly, I don't my money tied to the Elon rollercoaster.
    - tedd4u 5mo ago
      Can't wait to see where they stick the cost frontier model updates in the P&L. Maybe some kind of NRE they can amortize so it's outside of EBITDA?
    - mrweasel 5mo ago
      I understand very little of this, but hasn't OpenAI burned so much money, which it now need to be recouped, making any profit short or long term is mostly a fantasy. If OpenAI IPOs, then investors will expect a return. OpenAI can't generate that, so they'll be forced to slash R&D, stop datacenter roll outs and layoffs, so what's left? A model that will grow stale in six month, massive commitments and debt?
    - dminik 5mo ago
      How are the margins 50%+? There's an article from today where if they double their current revenue to $10.9B they will make ~$500M profit. Maybe I just can't count, but that's a margin of ~5% no? These numbers should be inference only: https://www.reuters.com/business/anthropic-nears-first-quarterly-profit-agrees-pay-spacex-125-billion-monthly-2026-05-21/ https://www.reuters.com/business/anthropic-nears-first-quart...
      - vanuatu 5mo ago

davey48016 5mo ago

It depends at least partially on how much they're going to float. I think SpaceX is only planning about a 4% float, so even at $1.5T they only need around $60B. Which is a drop in the bucket. EDIT - but that's just the IPO, I wasn't even thinking about how much insiders will want to sell after the lockup ends...

ecommerceguy 5mo ago
Is 100+ FPE the new normal?
- einrealist 5mo ago
  Must be retail investors believing: big number == good.
- phkahler 5mo ago
  The valuation just needs to be high enough to get into an index, then the 401K plans start buying the shares automatically.
deleted 5mo ago
[deleted]

aurareturn 5mo ago

I think one of them is not like the other. I would invest in OpenAI or Anthropic or both but I doubt I'd invest in SpaceX.

RandallBrown 5mo ago
Isn't SpaceX the only one of those that actually makes money?
- aurareturn 5mo ago
  Personally, I don't worry about profitability in the short term. If Anthropic is adding $15b ARR every single month, and their gross margins are 50%+ (per Dario), profits are inevitable. The thing I'm most worried about with SpaceX is bundling X.com, xAI with it. I don't want to invest in X.com nor xAI. Lastly, I don't my money tied to the Elon rollercoaster.
  - tedd4u 5mo ago
    Can't wait to see where they stick the cost frontier model updates in the P&L. Maybe some kind of NRE they can amortize so it's outside of EBITDA?
  - mrweasel 5mo ago
    I understand very little of this, but hasn't OpenAI burned so much money, which it now need to be recouped, making any profit short or long term is mostly a fantasy. If OpenAI IPOs, then investors will expect a return. OpenAI can't generate that, so they'll be forced to slash R&D, stop datacenter roll outs and layoffs, so what's left? A model that will grow stale in six month, massive commitments and debt?
  - dminik 5mo ago
    How are the margins 50%+? There's an article from today where if they double their current revenue to $10.9B they will make ~$500M profit. Maybe I just can't count, but that's a margin of ~5% no? These numbers should be inference only: https://www.reuters.com/business/anthropic-nears-first-quarterly-profit-agrees-pay-spacex-125-billion-monthly-2026-05-21/ https://www.reuters.com/business/anthropic-nears-first-quart...
    - vanuatu 5mo ago