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Did FiveThirtyEight really get that much right other than the 2016 election? I remember thinking they were the best data journalists out there, and they had so
by aeternum 5mo ago
Did FiveThirtyEight really get that much right other than the 2016 election?
I remember thinking they were the best data journalists out there, and they had some nice visualizations but did their other predictions actually hold up?
- draw_down 5mo ago[dead]
- akio 5mo agoYes, they forecast thousands of U.S. elections and thousands of sports games, and their forecasts had excellent calibration—e.g., events they said would happen 30% of the time actually happened about 30% of the time. https://archive.is/sId82 https://archive.is/sId82 https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/checking-our-work-data https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/checking-our-work-data