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We need another "Deepseek moment" or else it will become impossible for the regular dude to use AI. It will become something that only big companies can afford.
by hei-lima 5mo ago
We need another "Deepseek moment" or else it will become impossible for the regular dude to use AI. It will become something that only big companies can afford.
- segmondy 5mo agoYou can use lots of open weight models today.
- hei-lima 5mo agoThat's one solution to the problem. But it still needs some good computational capabilities. Either we optimize the hell out of those models, or we wait for the hardware to become good enough for them.
- Gigachad 5mo agoThe real problem is the hardware to run them is still very expensive.
- squidbeak 5mo agoDeepseek had another moment a few weeks ago. V4 isn't far behind the US frontier, and so far its flash variant seems a very reliable coder and costs a pittance.
- ai_fry_ur_brain 5mo agoDeepseek V4 (not flash) trippled in price too by the way (from Deepseek). Get used to this pattern. This is what you get for relying on the generosity of billionaires. Keep offshoring your thinking ability to a machine and let me know how competitive you. Hint, you wont be. There's nothing special about being able to use an LLM.
- npn 5mo agoUnlike other providers, Deepseek does promise that they will lower the price when their Huawei cards arrive in a few more months.
- flakiness 5mo agoGive me a link. Cannot wait. One PSA is that they have 75% discount right now so it is already cheaper than the full price.
- npn 5mo agoWeird, last time I checked it was right on the pricing page. But even when it happens I doubt it would be as cheap as it is right now. Enjoy it while it lasts!
- aurareturn 5mo agoI think demand is too great and compute is not enough. Nothing to do with billionaires colluding to increase prices by 3x.
- boutell 5mo agoActually, why should Google collude on pricing? They have deep pockets and could starve out the competition while keeping prices low, if they really wanted. I think it is priced high because it's basically their smartest model as well as their fastest, so why shouldn't they? You can still use earlier generations of Flash at a lower cost if you want "fast and cheap and just OK," which often makes sense. (Just checked) I would predict they will lower this price when 3.5 High appears, but perhaps not all the way.
- dpoloncsak 5mo agoMate why are you so mad at people upset the price trippeled? It's a fair complaint that people built services using the cheaper ones with the expectation future models would be similarly priced. You can avoid 'offloading thinking' while still building ontop of these models
- kuschku 5mo ago> It's a fair complaint that people built services using the cheaper ones with the expectation future models would be similarly priced Everyone could see this coming from miles away, everyone warned that this would happen again and again and again, and it always got dismissed.
- dpoloncsak 5mo agoI still think its reasonable to forsee this possibility and be upset when it comes to fruition
- ls612 5mo agoAnyone can host Deepseek V4 on rented GPUs and sell inference on it. Price will very quickly converge to the marginal cost of inference. This is as close to a pure commodity as it gets in the AI space so competitive market economics will put in work. Same is true for any open-weights model.
- ai_fry_ur_brain 5mo agoYou dont understand the costs involved to run inference at scale Please go run some numbers.The hardware needed to Run Deepseek v4 flash at 20 tps for a single session is nowhere close to what is required to run it at 50tps for 5,000 concurrent sessions. Imagine what it takes to be profitible when running at 150 tps for 30cents per 1mm. You make less than 1k per month and the hardware required to run that cost 10k a month to rent with hardly any concurrent session capability.
- ls612 5mo agoYes it is more efficient in $/tok to run at scale than to run just for yourself. Everyone selling Deepseek V4 inference is selling an undifferentiated good. They have run the numbers on how much it costs and are competing against a dozen other outfits also selling undifferentiated open weights tokens. Whatever the dollar cost they face to rent those GPUs will be what they are able to charge in the competitive market. That is great for you and me because we can buy tokens at pretty much exactly what it costs to produce them.
- ai_fry_ur_brain 5mo agoThey are selling it below costs and training on your tool calling, and potentially all your data. They're selling it for cheap to get your data dumbass.
- drob518 5mo agoWhoever purchased their RAM last month vs this month has the advantage, I suspect.
- 5mo ago
- zaptrem 5mo agoV4-Pro is about 2.4× total params and 1.3× active params of V3.2.
- creationcomplex 5mo agoYou're typing as your handwriting and letter sending abilities deteriorate to dust. Writing down information as your memory capacity decays. Remembering instead of living at the pure leading edge of perception dulling your reactions. Smh, it's all downhill from the first unadulterated neuron.
- barrell 5mo agoActually, deepseek v4 was 1/3 promotional price for the first month or so. This was pretty clearly communicated. The promotions window just ended is all.
- greenchair 5mo agothus proving ops point
- barrell 5mo agoIf you run out of 50% coupons to your local pizza joint, did they double their prices? Does every company double or triple their prices after Black Friday? There’s a pretty significant difference between saying someone tripled their prices, and a temporary promotion ended. It’s even more so the case if someone is using it as an example for raising prices as a trend. I’m 100% in the camp that prices are going up and quality is going down; companies are retiring models and requiring you to use more expensive ones. This has happened to me and there are dozens of examples that one can point to. But a promotion ending is a strawman argument and does the point a disservice.
- breezybottom 5mo agoEssentially yes. Perpetual "discounts" are common in some industries, like fast fashion, so you could consider that the normal price.
- wraptile 5mo ago> If you run out of 50% coupons to your local pizza joint, did they double their prices? Yes. Did they double their msrp? no. They did double their effective price relative to me which is all that matters unless you're doing economic math or something.
- barrell 5mo agoThe original comment was used as proof of a trend that vendors are raising prices. Would running out of coupons indicate a trend in rising pizza prices?
- GeorgeOldfield 5mo agogemini isn't even that good. just tested 3.5 on usual complex prompts to opus/chat 5.5. meh
- k8sToGo 5mo agoAre you really comparing flash to opus? Shouldn't you be comparing pro?
- CognitiveLens 5mo agoThe benchmark tables in the Google announcement include Opus 4.7, and the numbers are very impressive. Caveat emptor, but it's not unreasonable to compare a new Flash to a current-gen Opus, even if some of the results confirm expectations
- kmac_ 5mo agoWell, the first impression is that Gemini still goes off the instruction rails easier than other models, but I noticed that it tends to go back to the initial goal without holding a hand, which is a real improvement. It's really interesting that these models behave so differently.
- bachmeier 5mo agoWho would have guessed that something costing roughly a third as much wouldn't do as well at certain tasks.
- xbmcuser 5mo agoWhat we need is a deepseek moment in hardware ie China reaching parity on node size that is the only way latest computers let alone latest ai will be available to us in the future otherwise the profit margins will push most production to AI.
- throwa356262 5mo agoTo be honest, China not having access to the latest hardware is exactly what has driven LLM technology forward the last 2 years.
- humanfromearth9 5mo agoWhy?
- Weryj 5mo agoBecause it forced them to focus on efficiency, instead of throwing more compute at the problem. Just like in software, some of the most beautiful solutions come from constraints. Think, the optimisations that game developers implemented because of the frame budget.
- Viacol 5mo agoOn top of that, China is also facing hardware constraints, which is pushing companies to develop better domestic chips for AI training. It'll be interesting to see how things perform once Huawei's newer hardware is fully deployed at DeepSeek.
- blackoil 5mo agoOpen Source ASML EUV. But will wipe off trillions from US stocks so 401k may not like that.
- SwellJoe 5mo agoWe're having DeepSeek moments every couple of weeks. Qwen 3.6 hit hard in the self-hosting space. It's incredibly capable for its size, really shaking up what's possible in 64GB or even 32GB of VRAM. The Prism Bonsai ternary model crams a tremendous amount of capability into 1.75GB. And, DeepSeek V4 is crazy good for the price. They're charging flash model prices for their top-tier Pro model, which is competitive with the frontier of a few months ago. The winners in the AI war will be the companies that figure out how to run them efficiently, not the ones that eke out a couple percent better performance on a benchmark while spending ten times as much on inference (though the capability has to be there, I think we're seeing that capability alone isn't a strong moat...there's enough competent competition to insure there's always at least a few options even at the very frontier of capability).
- Zambyte 5mo ago> It's incredibly capable for its size, really shaking up what's possible in 64GB or even 32GB of VRAM. You can lower that to at least 24GB. I've been running Qwen 3.5 and 3.6 with codex on a 7900 XTX and the long horizon tasks it can handle successfully has been blowing my mind. I would seriously choose running my current local setup over (the SOTA models + ecosystem) of a year ago just based on how productive I can be.
- hei-lima 5mo agoGonna try it.
- trollbridge 5mo agoWe have Qwen 3.6-35b (6) on a 5090 (32GB) and it's blowing me away. Works fine for most (not all) code generation tasks. One developer here has been extremely stubborn about adopting AI; he's finally adopted it, albeit only when it's coming from a local model like this. DeepSeek V4 Pro likewise is insanely good for the price. I simply point it at large codebases, go get a cup of coffee or browse Hacker News, and then it's done useful work. This was simply not possible with other models without hitting budget problems.
- pianopatrick 5mo agoMaybe we can figure out better ways to use the models that can run on cheap hardware.
- stared 5mo agoWe have a "DeepSeek moment", https://github.com/antirez/ds4 https://github.com/antirez/ds4 (see https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48142108 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48142108). Or if you prefer smaller ones, Qwen3.6-35B-A3B, https://huggingface.co/bartowski/Qwen_Qwen3.6-35B-A3B-GGUF https://huggingface.co/bartowski/Qwen_Qwen3.6-35B-A3B-GGUF
- Bombthecat 5mo agoCan you run a coal power plant in your backyard? Or a giant solar power farm? Of course not And you don't need to