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Uber is a good comparison because everyone was predicting the demise of ride sharing as soon as they tried to become profitable. The subsidies went away gradua
by Aurornis 6mo ago
Uber is a good comparison because everyone was predicting the demise of ride sharing as soon as they tried to become profitable.
The subsidies went away gradually and the prices leveled out in a spot where the services are heavily used. Uber became profitable. Ride sharing is affordable.
I think our $20/month plans might become a little less generous and the $200/month plan won’t always allow non-stop vibe coding, but I don’t think the prices are going to rise so much that users are priced out. Like Uber, customers will grumble for a while and then adapt to the new normal.
The big difference is that compute hardware is getting better. I think we might overshoot with data center buildouts to the point that compute becomes cheap, while hardware improvements continue to lower the cost of serving models. Over time the same service becomes cheaper to operate, opposite of Uber where driver wages are creeping upward.
- eieiewq 6mo agoNo it’s a bad example as uber had solid unit economics. Uber is more Akin to Amazon.
- bensyverson 6mo agoI would love to see the data to support the idea that Uber had solid unit economics during their expansion.
- eieiewq 6mo agoState your priors so I can determine whether you are qualified to have this discussion.
- bensyverson 6mo agohaha what My "priors" are that I raised a search fund and analyze companies every day.
- bauldursdev 6mo ago"I know these facts, they just go to a different school. I'd bring you to them if your Mom would let you leave the neighborhood, but you're just a little boy". I mean surely to make this claim, you aren't just making it up, surely you've done the research. In that case, what's so hard about sharing facts which you already know? I'm not asking you to put in a bunch of effort pulling financial statements and analyzing everything, I assume you've already done that because I doubt you'd make the claim otherwise.
- WarmWash 6mo agoAI will likely cost $60-$80 per user per month. Akin to an average cellphone bill. The infrastructure costs are comparable and the ROI would be 5-10 years for the current insane build out. Yes, chinese and local models exist. But so do $20 cell phone plans. People go with what is convenient, works, and is readily available.
- toasty228 6mo ago> $60-$80 > Akin to an average cellphone bill. Where? You get unlimited mobile plans for like 10-20 euros in Europe
- triceratops 6mo agoPlaces that have dollars and not euros. North America, usually, has phone bills that high. If you don't shop around and bring your own device, at least.
- semiquaver 6mo agoIt is extremely easy to get unlimited mobile internet in the US for $30/mo.
- WarmWash 6mo agoCorrect, but people still largely don't use those plans. They walk into service provider store, get a "free" iphone, and then pay $70/mo until their next "free" phone in 2yrs.