4 ms·

space colonization, even if there were habitable planets within our reach, is not possible anymore. you could, for example, send a million settlers to Kepler-6

space colonization, even if there were habitable planets within our reach, is not possible anymore. you could, for example, send a million settlers to Kepler-69420, and with the TFR of 1.5 - an unrealistically high number - the colony would be extinct in just a few centuries. 1m becomes 100k in 200 years and 10k in 400 years.

nine_k 5mo ago
I bet the colonists would be highly (self-)selected for many traits not common in the majority of the population, likely including the willingness to have many children. I suppose that colonists on other planets, like colonists on other Earth continents, would largely consist of people who are unhappy with the status quo at their origin, and would have some strongly-held ideas about a different way of living.
- b65e8bee43c2ed0 5mo ago
  >likely including the willingness to have many children. why exactly do you find it likely? on the contrary, most of the colonists would need to be highly educated professionals for the colony to be self-sufficient, so they would be even less likely to have many children than average people. besides, in very near future, the TFR of 1.5 will pass for "willingness to have many children".
  - nine_k 5mo ago
    I don't think that the highly educated people who would join the expedition would at the same time be happy to se their colony die out, and would find it too onerous to have children and pass their knowledge and fervor to the next generations. Again, I don't think that a self-sustained colony on another planet would be organized by Earth governments, and by people who are happy to live on Earth. I bet on projects like (the declared) Musk's Mars colony, and even more, on religious groups (remember Mayflower). It takes a lot of grit to leave the comforts of Earth and go live in highly inhospitable and limiting conditions of another world, for life. Do not compare it to traits of a typical middle-class college-educated coastal city dweller. Those are going to be very different people, with very different views on everything, including fertility and raising children.
  - ShinyLeftPad 5mo ago
    Because willingness to have many children depends on safety. Birth rate falls not (just) because "education".
    - amanaplanacanal 5mo ago
      From my (admittedly limited) knowledge of the research, education of women is the best correlate for lower birth rates. Once women have other options, staying home and popping out babies is less popular. I don't know exactly how that might work in the scenarios we are discussing though.
      - ShinyLeftPad 5mo ago
        Wouldn't education correlate with safety?
    - b65e8bee43c2ed0 5mo ago
      is it safer in Switzerland or Democratic Republic of Congo?
      - ShinyLeftPad 5mo ago
        Exactly.

nine_k 5mo ago

I bet the colonists would be highly (self-)selected for many traits not common in the majority of the population, likely including the willingness to have many children. I suppose that colonists on other planets, like colonists on other Earth continents, would largely consist of people who are unhappy with the status quo at their origin, and would have some strongly-held ideas about a different way of living.

b65e8bee43c2ed0 5mo ago
>likely including the willingness to have many children. why exactly do you find it likely? on the contrary, most of the colonists would need to be highly educated professionals for the colony to be self-sufficient, so they would be even less likely to have many children than average people. besides, in very near future, the TFR of 1.5 will pass for "willingness to have many children".
- nine_k 5mo ago
  I don't think that the highly educated people who would join the expedition would at the same time be happy to se their colony die out, and would find it too onerous to have children and pass their knowledge and fervor to the next generations. Again, I don't think that a self-sustained colony on another planet would be organized by Earth governments, and by people who are happy to live on Earth. I bet on projects like (the declared) Musk's Mars colony, and even more, on religious groups (remember Mayflower). It takes a lot of grit to leave the comforts of Earth and go live in highly inhospitable and limiting conditions of another world, for life. Do not compare it to traits of a typical middle-class college-educated coastal city dweller. Those are going to be very different people, with very different views on everything, including fertility and raising children.
- ShinyLeftPad 5mo ago
  Because willingness to have many children depends on safety. Birth rate falls not (just) because "education".
  - amanaplanacanal 5mo ago
    From my (admittedly limited) knowledge of the research, education of women is the best correlate for lower birth rates. Once women have other options, staying home and popping out babies is less popular. I don't know exactly how that might work in the scenarios we are discussing though.
    - ShinyLeftPad 5mo ago
      Wouldn't education correlate with safety?
  - b65e8bee43c2ed0 5mo ago
    is it safer in Switzerland or Democratic Republic of Congo?
    - ShinyLeftPad 5mo ago
      Exactly.