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I'm having a hard time squaring this view with the prediction markets. 500k+ of volume on Polymarket[0] had Elon losing at only even odds until March, 2:1 until
by unholiness 5mo ago
I'm having a hard time squaring this view with the prediction markets. 500k+ of volume on Polymarket[0] had Elon losing at only even odds until March, 2:1 until May 15th, and 3:1 before the verdict dropped.
It seems to have been widely reported from the start[1] and throughout[2] that the statute of limitations was a key thing Musk's team had to prove. If it was so clear, why did people think this case had legs?
[0] https://polymarket.com/event/will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman https://polymarket.com/event/will-elon-musk-win-his-case-aga...
[1] https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/musk-lawsuit-over-openai-for-profit-conversion-can-head-trial-us-judge-says-2026-01-07/ https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/musk-lawsuit-over-o...
[2] https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/05/14/technology/openai-trial-sam-altman-elon-musk/e850129b-505e-5f47-9509-f5264cf1828b?smid=url-share https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/05/14/technology/openai-tr...
- lesuorac 5mo agoA lot of people on polymarket thinking something is the case is probably evidence that it's not. https://www.google.com/search?q=percentage+of+people+who+lose+money+on+polymarket https://www.google.com/search?q=percentage+of+people+who+los...
- IAmBroom 5mo agoPostulate: Prediction markets are not exceptionally good at predicting everything.
- awesome_dude 5mo agoIf Prediction markets were good at predicting anything, there would be no need for prediction markets (because the future is already clear to everyone).
- compiler-guy 5mo agoPrediction markets depend on the "wisdom of crowds", but often the crowd doesn't exercise its wisdom--which is generally pretty good--but instead exercises its wishful thinking or desires. cf: Sports betting.