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Yes. The US is already increasing exports from the Gulf and UAE broke with OPEC to increase the throughput of Fujairah. If Gulf countries start exporting throug

Yes. The US is already increasing exports from the Gulf and UAE broke with OPEC to increase the throughput of Fujairah. If Gulf countries start exporting through Fujairah or other ports, it's eventually game over for Iran.

ursuscamp 5mo ago
All of those are within range of Iranian missiles and drones. The only ways out of this are total war or final settlement giving Iranian favorable terms.
- Karrot_Kream 5mo ago
  The US, China, Russia, India etc can bolster UAE defense in Fujairah. It's UAE and Omani controlled waters around there, the same area that the US is enforcing its current blockade.
  - lonely_wanderer 5mo ago
    That scraggly tag team of allies, the US, China, Russia, and India. I can only see two natural allies here (US and India) and clear reasons why Russia and China benefit from the current order, or at least are harmed less than the US.
    - Karrot_Kream 5mo ago
      I don't mean they'll literally ally, I meant any one of them could guarantee the UAE. Also multiple partners don't need to ally to necessarily guarantee the UAE. UAE has been growing closer to China recently and now that UAE has left OPEC+ they could make deals with China for protection for favored oil contracts. The US could do the same.
- pdimitar 5mo ago
  Iran is also playing a PR war lately, playing the victims of the big bad USA. They IMO embarrassed themselves hugely by shooting missiles and drones at their neighbors; not sure they'll want to also try to sink (literally) a new way for the world to get oil from that peninsula but through other routes. Though of course propaganda knows no rest. They'll likely bend over backwards and do a front flip to again make it the fault of everyone else but not them.
wodenokoto 5mo ago
It’s probably still a lot cheaper to pay toll than moving cargo from Jebel Ali to Fujairah over land
- Karrot_Kream 5mo ago
  UAE already built a pipeline called ADNOC that ships oil to Fujairah. They're committing to doubling [1] their export capacity by 2027. [1]: https://gulfnews.com/business/energy/uaes-new-west-east-pipeline-to-double-adnocs-export-capacity-through-fujairah-1.500541399 https://gulfnews.com/business/energy/uaes-new-west-east-pipe...
  - wodenokoto 5mo ago
    The pipeline is obviously not called ADNOC. The exisitng pipeline is called Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP) and not "Abu Dhabi National Oil Corporation" (ADNOC). The existing pipeline carries 1.8 million barrels per day [1]. Which you have to put against the 20 million barrels per day that used to be sailed through the strait. [1] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/uae-accelerate-oil-pipeline-project-help-bypass-hormuz-2026-05-15/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/uae-accelerate-oil-p... [2] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65504 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65504
    - Karrot_Kream 5mo ago
      Yes ADCOP not ADNOC, you are indeed precisely correct. But it's also called the Habshan–Fujairah pipeline :) The East-West Pipeline that empties into Yanbu can run 7 mbpd and House of Saud claims [1] that it ran at 1.3 mbpd before the war. If we double the capacity of ADCOP to 3.6 mbpd and add an extra 6.7 mbpd through the East-West Pipeline, we'll be up to 11.4 mbpd which is over half the capacity of the Strait of Hormuz which is probably enough to bring Brent down a lot lower. [1]: https://houseofsaud.com/saudi-arabia-energy-export-reroute-red-sea-yanbu-iran-war https://houseofsaud.com/saudi-arabia-energy-export-reroute-r...
      - 5mo ago

ursuscamp 5mo ago

All of those are within range of Iranian missiles and drones. The only ways out of this are total war or final settlement giving Iranian favorable terms.

Karrot_Kream 5mo ago
The US, China, Russia, India etc can bolster UAE defense in Fujairah. It's UAE and Omani controlled waters around there, the same area that the US is enforcing its current blockade.
- lonely_wanderer 5mo ago
  That scraggly tag team of allies, the US, China, Russia, and India. I can only see two natural allies here (US and India) and clear reasons why Russia and China benefit from the current order, or at least are harmed less than the US.
  - Karrot_Kream 5mo ago
    I don't mean they'll literally ally, I meant any one of them could guarantee the UAE. Also multiple partners don't need to ally to necessarily guarantee the UAE. UAE has been growing closer to China recently and now that UAE has left OPEC+ they could make deals with China for protection for favored oil contracts. The US could do the same.
pdimitar 5mo ago
Iran is also playing a PR war lately, playing the victims of the big bad USA. They IMO embarrassed themselves hugely by shooting missiles and drones at their neighbors; not sure they'll want to also try to sink (literally) a new way for the world to get oil from that peninsula but through other routes. Though of course propaganda knows no rest. They'll likely bend over backwards and do a front flip to again make it the fault of everyone else but not them.

wodenokoto 5mo ago

It’s probably still a lot cheaper to pay toll than moving cargo from Jebel Ali to Fujairah over land

Karrot_Kream 5mo ago
UAE already built a pipeline called ADNOC that ships oil to Fujairah. They're committing to doubling [1] their export capacity by 2027. [1]: https://gulfnews.com/business/energy/uaes-new-west-east-pipeline-to-double-adnocs-export-capacity-through-fujairah-1.500541399 https://gulfnews.com/business/energy/uaes-new-west-east-pipe...
- wodenokoto 5mo ago
  The pipeline is obviously not called ADNOC. The exisitng pipeline is called Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP) and not "Abu Dhabi National Oil Corporation" (ADNOC). The existing pipeline carries 1.8 million barrels per day [1]. Which you have to put against the 20 million barrels per day that used to be sailed through the strait. [1] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/uae-accelerate-oil-pipeline-project-help-bypass-hormuz-2026-05-15/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/uae-accelerate-oil-p... [2] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65504 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65504
  - Karrot_Kream 5mo ago
    Yes ADCOP not ADNOC, you are indeed precisely correct. But it's also called the Habshan–Fujairah pipeline :) The East-West Pipeline that empties into Yanbu can run 7 mbpd and House of Saud claims [1] that it ran at 1.3 mbpd before the war. If we double the capacity of ADCOP to 3.6 mbpd and add an extra 6.7 mbpd through the East-West Pipeline, we'll be up to 11.4 mbpd which is over half the capacity of the Strait of Hormuz which is probably enough to bring Brent down a lot lower. [1]: https://houseofsaud.com/saudi-arabia-energy-export-reroute-red-sea-yanbu-iran-war https://houseofsaud.com/saudi-arabia-energy-export-reroute-r...
    - 5mo ago