4 ms·

China can't transition that fast. China has a lot of oil in storage but if the current situation continues or gets worse they are hurt. The US is a net exporter

by bluGill 6mo ago

China can't transition that fast. China has a lot of oil in storage but if the current situation continues or gets worse they are hurt. The US is a net exporter of oil so is okay though some areas use middle east oil and are hurt too. This will take a long time to play out. Discount every short term prediction as both Iran and the US are forced to play a long game.

spankalee 6mo ago
How does being a net exporter even help? There's a global market and prices rise globally. US companies and consumers will pay more no matter if we're importing or exporting.
- derekp7 6mo ago
  Couldn't a stroke of a pen (executive order) specify that US markets must be saturated prior to exporting?
  - toyg 6mo ago
    That penstroke is just generating a black market.
- kshacker 6mo ago
  This is where tariffs help actually, if they could be approved. You bring in money from tariffs, use that to subsidize things - gas tax is one way but it is small, but there could be others. Of course no tariff on gas exports since everyone wants it :) But it needs Trump world view with Obama's level execution :)
- bluGill 6mo ago
  It means the us gains a lot from high prices. Different people see different effects of course, if you are not invested in oil it hurts.
  - amanaplanacanal 6mo ago
    US oil companies gain, you mean.
    - bluGill 6mo ago
      Most are public so my 401k gains. Oil companies will expand in this scenario and those new employees pay taxes, both which benefit everyone in some way. I drive an EV so I gain. Though most lose more than they gain, this isn't a complete loss for anyone.
      - hebelehubele 6mo ago
        > those new employees pay taxes, both which benefit everyone in some way. The too-big-to-fail companies and Trump's cronies, you mean?
      - maleldil 6mo ago
        Why would an increase in oil prices translate to new jobs? The price increase has no relation to value added, only to global scarcity, so there's no need for new jobs.
        bluGill 6mo ago
        The price increase, and the anticipation of the price increase, means that if you have the ability to produce oil, now would be a great time to be drilling wells. Of course, you have to consider the late time between how long it takes to drill a well and get production versus how long you think this will go on. Still, it's a reasonable investment that the oil business should be looking at right now.

by bluGill 6mo ago

spankalee 6mo ago

How does being a net exporter even help? There's a global market and prices rise globally. US companies and consumers will pay more no matter if we're importing or exporting.

derekp7 6mo ago
Couldn't a stroke of a pen (executive order) specify that US markets must be saturated prior to exporting?
- toyg 6mo ago
  That penstroke is just generating a black market.
kshacker 6mo ago
This is where tariffs help actually, if they could be approved. You bring in money from tariffs, use that to subsidize things - gas tax is one way but it is small, but there could be others. Of course no tariff on gas exports since everyone wants it :) But it needs Trump world view with Obama's level execution :)
bluGill 6mo ago
It means the us gains a lot from high prices. Different people see different effects of course, if you are not invested in oil it hurts.
- amanaplanacanal 6mo ago
  US oil companies gain, you mean.
  - bluGill 6mo ago
    Most are public so my 401k gains. Oil companies will expand in this scenario and those new employees pay taxes, both which benefit everyone in some way. I drive an EV so I gain. Though most lose more than they gain, this isn't a complete loss for anyone.
    - hebelehubele 6mo ago
      > those new employees pay taxes, both which benefit everyone in some way. The too-big-to-fail companies and Trump's cronies, you mean?
    - maleldil 6mo ago
      Why would an increase in oil prices translate to new jobs? The price increase has no relation to value added, only to global scarcity, so there's no need for new jobs.
      - bluGill 6mo ago
        The price increase, and the anticipation of the price increase, means that if you have the ability to produce oil, now would be a great time to be drilling wells. Of course, you have to consider the late time between how long it takes to drill a well and get production versus how long you think this will go on. Still, it's a reasonable investment that the oil business should be looking at right now.