4 ms·

> The thing that mystifies me is that U. S. war planners "theoretically knew" this, too; at least, I would assume. They would have, because this has been warga

> The thing that mystifies me is that U. S. war planners "theoretically knew" this, too; at least, I would assume. They would have, because this has been wargamed and written about for decades. It's playing out exactly as expected, which is why no US administration until this one was willing to go to an outright hot war with Iran. Unfortunately, this war dept and admin has a staggering amount of hubris, incompetency, and a strange devotion to carrying out every whim of a certain semi-allied state I won't name directly but can be inferred.

throwaway85825 5mo ago
Not legally an ally under any treaty.
intalentive 5mo ago
>a strange devotion to carrying out every whim of a certain semi-allied state I won't name directly Israel. The White House is willing to sacrifice American power and prestige for Israel. We have to stop tip-toeing around the elephant in the room.
throw0101c 5mo ago
> They would have, because this has been wargamed and written about for decades. From a think tank simulation from 2012: > The simulation’s second move principally focused on the Iranian team and how it would respond to the various American actions in the first move. The Iranian team chose to respond in several ways: […] It decided to create a threat to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz by ordering IRGC small boats to harass American naval ships passing through the strait, and—of far greater importance—laying a relatively small number of mines there. […] * PDF: https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/us-iran-crisis-simulation-pollack-paper.pdf https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/us-iran... Interview at the time with the organizers: * https://www.npr.org/2012/09/24/161706698/simulated-war-between-u-s-iran-has-grisly-end https://www.npr.org/2012/09/24/161706698/simulated-war-betwe...

throwaway85825 5mo ago

Not legally an ally under any treaty.

intalentive 5mo ago

>a strange devotion to carrying out every whim of a certain semi-allied state I won't name directly Israel. The White House is willing to sacrifice American power and prestige for Israel. We have to stop tip-toeing around the elephant in the room.

throw0101c 5mo ago

> They would have, because this has been wargamed and written about for decades. From a think tank simulation from 2012: > The simulation’s second move principally focused on the Iranian team and how it would respond to the various American actions in the first move. The Iranian team chose to respond in several ways: […] It decided to create a threat to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz by ordering IRGC small boats to harass American naval ships passing through the strait, and—of far greater importance—laying a relatively small number of mines there. […] * PDF: https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/us-iran-crisis-simulation-pollack-paper.pdf https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/us-iran... Interview at the time with the organizers: * https://www.npr.org/2012/09/24/161706698/simulated-war-between-u-s-iran-has-grisly-end https://www.npr.org/2012/09/24/161706698/simulated-war-betwe...