4 ms·
can we stop calling them "prediction markets" and please call them what they actually are: gambling
by exabrial 5mo ago
can we stop calling them "prediction markets" and please call them what they actually are: gambling
- egorfine 5mo agoSome prediction markets can be gambling, some not. Gambling is a broader category that does not include all of the prediction markets.
- mcmcmc 5mo agoCan you provide examples of prediction markets that aren’t gambling?
- SoftTalker 5mo agoWhen you have information/know the outcome in advance.
- miltonlost 5mo agoAh, insider trading! Or playing a rigged game and then taking money from people not in on the game. So fraud!
- walletdrainer 5mo agoYou can come upon such information by other means In sports? Perhaps you just observe a player get injured in a car accident and bet based on that.
- mcmcmc 5mo agoSo it’s still gambling for the other participants who don’t have that insider knowledge then. If one person at a blackjack table is counting cards, does that make it not gambling for everyone else?
- SoftTalker 5mo agoI don't really think so, because if you don't have information in prediction markets, you are the patsy. Gambling is just hoping probability comes up in your favor. You'll lose over the long term, but you could win an individual bet. Neither is under your control or can be influenced by any "inside" information. The dice don't care what you know or don't know, and bets don't change the payout. Granted some types of "gambling" such as horse racing or sports in general are more like a prediction market than a true bet against odds, where knowing something that the general betting public doesn't know could be used to your advantage.
- askl 5mo agoThe ones where you have insider information.
- egorfine 5mo agoIt's a good question, actually now that I think of it. Obviously, insider trading, but as a society we have long decided that this is evil. And if we compare markets where I am ready to put my money where my mouth is, then this actually is called gambling. Just not a game of chance but rather game of skill.
- throwaway85825 5mo agoSome industries chang names every 10 years to avoid regulation. Loan sharing became Buy Now Pay Later.
- xixixao 5mo agoHonest question which I think is at the heart of the question: What’s the difference between these and NYSE / Robinhood?
- jrmg 5mo agoYou actually own something when you buy stock.
- patrickk 5mo agoEven that is fuzzy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depository_Trust_%26_Clearing_Corporation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depository_Trust_%26_Clearing_...
- ryandrake 5mo agoYou own the same thing when you buy a lottery ticket. You own a paper entitling you to an unknown amount of future money based on uncertain events.
- bluGill 5mo agoWhen I own a stock I also vote on the board of directors and so I have long term influence on the future. (I don't agree with stocks where I don't get that vote, or where my vote is meaningless because insiders have more control than their ownership share - even though they exist. Yes I know the amount of stock I own is trivial, but I still at least have it)
- mcmcmc 5mo agoBuying a share of a company affords marginal utility outside the value going up or down, in that you ostensibly have a vote on how the company is run
- matheusmoreira 5mo agoAbtractly, there is no conceptual difference. Everything is a gamble. We are always betting on everything. We are always positioning ourselves in relation to everything else in the world. Often unconsciously and unknowingly. It becomes problematic when we make a game of it and add financial stakes. Gambling is a lot like drugs in its ability to hijack the brain's reward circuits. I stopped investing in cryptocurrencies because seeing +400% profits was like crack. I never gambled any money I couldn't afford to lose but there are people out there who were leveraging their entire lives to FOMO into markets.
- ekianjo 5mo agoIts not gambling if you can influence the outcome