3 ms·
Don't necessarily agree with all of the writing in this article. But I just spent the past weeks reading into the whole AI valuation topic again (did dis in Mar
by 7777777phil 5mo ago
Don't necessarily agree with all of the writing in this article. But I just spent the past weeks reading into the whole AI valuation topic again (did dis in March already (1)). So I'll try to add some perspective:
Form my research (1) Four widely cited 2025 enterprise AI revenue figures span 40x ($37B Menlo, $1.478T Gartner). The audit-grade floor you could defend on a 10-Q against $690B of 2026 hyperscaler capex is just $63.2B, or 9.2% coverage. Telecom 1999 peaked at 28%. Even after netting only AI-incremental capex you only get to 12-15%, which is still below the closest analogue we have.
(1) https://philippdubach.com/posts/ai-capex-arms-race-who-blinks-first/ https://philippdubach.com/posts/ai-capex-arms-race-who-blink...
(2) https://philippdubach.com/posts/reconciling-enterprise-ai-revenue/ https://philippdubach.com/posts/reconciling-enterprise-ai-re...