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The only thing that can “save Europe” is US embargo, otherwise doesn’t make sense to do replication of the US effort whatsoever. In US the AI is a private effor

by mrtksn 5mo ago

The only thing that can “save Europe” is US embargo, otherwise doesn’t make sense to do replication of the US effort whatsoever. In US the AI is a private effort, in Europe there are no businesses that are interested in investing such large amounts of money when they can benefit from US made AI. In China they don’t have this option to use the US offerings so they must invest, be it the government or the business that will be protected from US competition. Unless Trump invades Greenland and EU makes sure that US tech is off limits for at least a decade to come, a revolution happens in UK or France goes full nationalistic there won’t be “European tech” beyond niche. Currently the “American AI” isn’t American, it’s bunch of Europeans, Canadians and Asians building the AI that will serve US and EU customers under the supervision of Americans using European, Arab, Russian and American money. It is incorporated in America but as Musk demonstrates, if you increase taxes or allow certain sexual relationships that CEO’s don’t approve they can just take it somewhere else.

tjwebbnorfolk 5mo ago
The hilarious irony is that Trump has been yelling at Europe since ~2017 to stop being so reliant on the US for everything, to pay more for its own defense, stop regulating and start innovating, etc. Basically everything that's in the Draghi report. Meanwhile, EU bureaucrats' heads appear to remain firmly buried in the sand.
- mrtksn 5mo ago
  EU isn’t governed by the china communist party, the only way to stop being reliant to US is to stop trade with US and the cost of it will be enormous. Trump needs to create such a high political risk that the economic damage be justified. He definitely did a lot to help, but the damage needs to be irreparable so that business can feel safe from US competition. He needs to do do something so outrageous that Germany would not mind losing the US car market for example.
  - tjwebbnorfolk 5mo ago
    I think one could argue that he tried this "the easy way" in his first term. He vented against Nord Stream with NATO, he vented against the regulations and the energy dependence and closing the nuke reactors. But he didn't actually do anything about it. The difference now is that he's turning the screws and putting the pressure on. Call this "the hard way". I can understand why EU leaders do not like this one bit. But also, they had their chance...
    - mrtksn 5mo ago
      The Nord Stream is epic but he didn't argue for independence, he is arguing for US-dependence instead of Russia-dependence so this isn't flying as well as Americans believe it is because that was actually German issue, not EU wide thing at all. EU wide policy was renewables and as it turns out they are the right direction for independence. In general, local governments are very unpopular in EU and Europe, everyone likes EU more than they like their governments.
      - tjwebbnorfolk 5mo ago
        He's been yelling at the UK to tap the North Sea fields forever, and for Germany not to mothball their nuke reactors. How is that adding dependence on the US?
- raincole 5mo ago
  Another hilarious fact: Trump has warned about Nord Stream 2, called it "a tool of coercion."[0] At this point it almost seems like Trump cares Europe more than EU leaders. [0]: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50879435 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50879435
  - mrtksn 5mo ago
    He was reflecting, what he meant was if I had a pipeline to you that you are dependent on I would coerce you. He kept trying coerce EU with whatever US had on EU.
jmyeet 5mo ago
The China example was such a massive blunder (from the perspective of US soft power). Like you say, it created a captive market for Chinese chips where Chinese companies might've otherwise bought foreign chips. That's inbuilt demand. But China also has something Europe doesn't and that's central planning. China has realized that chipmaking and AI are issues of national security. Europe just doesn't have that level of governance and forethought. Within 5 years China will be producing their own EUV chips despite the ASML export ban. And you know who realizes all this? The Nvidia CEO [1][2]. There is now a 70 year history of Europe being designed as and becoming comfortable with being a US vassal state, from the end of WW2 to Bretton-Woods, the Marshall Plan and NATO. I don't see fascist takeovers in the UK, France or Germany as changing any of this. If anything, it'll just fracture any semblance of European unity. It'll be the enemy within as those forces will be most aligned with the US. [1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJmHfmrRMUE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJmHfmrRMUE [2]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hrbq66XqtCo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hrbq66XqtCo
- mrtksn 5mo ago
  > don't see fascist takeovers in the UK, France or Germany The horseshoe theory is in full swing lately, in UK after right wing libertarian rule came the left wing labour and now it’s once again the right wingers. They again won’t solve anything and more swings will happen until someone realizes that it’s the US trade that isn’t working. The rest of Europe is similar, they just happen to have more damping as most have fractured parliaments with no one having majority but the general direction change is happening regardless. People aren’t going to be like “tough luck, we choose poorly to rely on US and we will be permanent underclass from now on”.
  - jmyeet 5mo ago
    I just have to respond to this: I'm not sure how you meant this but, to be clear, horseshow theory is BS. For one thing, there's nothing remotely left wing about Starmer's Labor government. Labor is firmly a center-right party. So were the Blair and Brown governments. So we've had unbroken right-wing rule in the UK since Thatcher was elected almost 50 years ago. If Jeremy Corbyn had been elected, he may well have been a left-wing PM but he wasn't. Instead, the threat of that caused Labor insiders to engage in a vile character assassination scheme that brought Keir Starmer to power, all to support US imperialism. There's nothing remotely left-wing about that.
deleted 5mo ago
[deleted]

by mrtksn 5mo ago

tjwebbnorfolk 5mo ago

The hilarious irony is that Trump has been yelling at Europe since ~2017 to stop being so reliant on the US for everything, to pay more for its own defense, stop regulating and start innovating, etc. Basically everything that's in the Draghi report. Meanwhile, EU bureaucrats' heads appear to remain firmly buried in the sand.

mrtksn 5mo ago
EU isn’t governed by the china communist party, the only way to stop being reliant to US is to stop trade with US and the cost of it will be enormous. Trump needs to create such a high political risk that the economic damage be justified. He definitely did a lot to help, but the damage needs to be irreparable so that business can feel safe from US competition. He needs to do do something so outrageous that Germany would not mind losing the US car market for example.
- tjwebbnorfolk 5mo ago
  I think one could argue that he tried this "the easy way" in his first term. He vented against Nord Stream with NATO, he vented against the regulations and the energy dependence and closing the nuke reactors. But he didn't actually do anything about it. The difference now is that he's turning the screws and putting the pressure on. Call this "the hard way". I can understand why EU leaders do not like this one bit. But also, they had their chance...
  - mrtksn 5mo ago
    The Nord Stream is epic but he didn't argue for independence, he is arguing for US-dependence instead of Russia-dependence so this isn't flying as well as Americans believe it is because that was actually German issue, not EU wide thing at all. EU wide policy was renewables and as it turns out they are the right direction for independence. In general, local governments are very unpopular in EU and Europe, everyone likes EU more than they like their governments.
    - tjwebbnorfolk 5mo ago
      He's been yelling at the UK to tap the North Sea fields forever, and for Germany not to mothball their nuke reactors. How is that adding dependence on the US?
raincole 5mo ago
Another hilarious fact: Trump has warned about Nord Stream 2, called it "a tool of coercion."[0] At this point it almost seems like Trump cares Europe more than EU leaders. [0]: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50879435 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50879435
- mrtksn 5mo ago
  He was reflecting, what he meant was if I had a pipeline to you that you are dependent on I would coerce you. He kept trying coerce EU with whatever US had on EU.

jmyeet 5mo ago

The China example was such a massive blunder (from the perspective of US soft power). Like you say, it created a captive market for Chinese chips where Chinese companies might've otherwise bought foreign chips. That's inbuilt demand. But China also has something Europe doesn't and that's central planning. China has realized that chipmaking and AI are issues of national security. Europe just doesn't have that level of governance and forethought. Within 5 years China will be producing their own EUV chips despite the ASML export ban. And you know who realizes all this? The Nvidia CEO [1][2]. There is now a 70 year history of Europe being designed as and becoming comfortable with being a US vassal state, from the end of WW2 to Bretton-Woods, the Marshall Plan and NATO. I don't see fascist takeovers in the UK, France or Germany as changing any of this. If anything, it'll just fracture any semblance of European unity. It'll be the enemy within as those forces will be most aligned with the US. [1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJmHfmrRMUE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJmHfmrRMUE [2]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hrbq66XqtCo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hrbq66XqtCo

mrtksn 5mo ago
> don't see fascist takeovers in the UK, France or Germany The horseshoe theory is in full swing lately, in UK after right wing libertarian rule came the left wing labour and now it’s once again the right wingers. They again won’t solve anything and more swings will happen until someone realizes that it’s the US trade that isn’t working. The rest of Europe is similar, they just happen to have more damping as most have fractured parliaments with no one having majority but the general direction change is happening regardless. People aren’t going to be like “tough luck, we choose poorly to rely on US and we will be permanent underclass from now on”.
- jmyeet 5mo ago
  I just have to respond to this: I'm not sure how you meant this but, to be clear, horseshow theory is BS. For one thing, there's nothing remotely left wing about Starmer's Labor government. Labor is firmly a center-right party. So were the Blair and Brown governments. So we've had unbroken right-wing rule in the UK since Thatcher was elected almost 50 years ago. If Jeremy Corbyn had been elected, he may well have been a left-wing PM but he wasn't. Instead, the threat of that caused Labor insiders to engage in a vile character assassination scheme that brought Keir Starmer to power, all to support US imperialism. There's nothing remotely left-wing about that.

deleted 5mo ago

[deleted]