I think most people genuinely read "49% chance" as some kind of ironclad prediction of winning 49 out of 100 seats, and therefore losing. That's why people get

I think most people genuinely read "49% chance" as some kind of ironclad prediction of winning 49 out of 100 seats, and therefore losing. That's why people get all weird about probabilities flipping from 49% to 51%, and not at all interested in - say - a probability going from 60% to 90%.