3 ms·
538 got one election right a decade and a half ago with a contrarian alternative data source, and hooked a bunch of partisan gamblers since now you can actuall
by yieldcrv 5mo ago
538 got one election right a decade and a half ago with a contrarian alternative data source, and hooked a bunch of partisan gamblers since
now you can actually bet on your beliefs and dont need to debate with anyone on whether the koolaid colored wave of choice will actually happen, or whether you are a slave to an algorithm induced hall of mirrors. note, the senate has been 50-50 for over a decade, its probably the latter
so the only intervention necessary here is on yourself, focusing on things you cant control while delusionally thinking this time will be different, over and over and over again
extracting value from partisan gullibility and pathetic power struggles is unironically the move
- stackghost 5mo agoPretty sure the only election that 538 didn't correctly call was 2016. For sure they correctly predicted both Obama wins and Biden.
- owisd 5mo agoThey don't really 'call' elections since they only publish probabilities. If you'd bet on the candidate 538/Silver was more bullish than the bookies, then the only election year you wouldn't have made money would have been 2024.
- ownlife 5mo agoThere's no "getting elections right"; these models just estimate probability. They gave Trump a 29% change in 2016 -- that's almost 1 in 3! A better way to assess accuracy would be to bin predictions (0-10% chance, 10-20% chance, etc.) and see if the observed frequency aligns with the predictions.
- yieldcrv 5mo agoI like market based approaches as a signal and opportunity creation, price discovery In parallel your signal could be a data source adding to individuals contribution to price discovery